2023 Fantasy Sleepers and Busts: Don't overlook Watson

It's the final week of July, and we are officially entering the heart of fantasy football season. Player ADPs and positional rankings are changing by the day, and before you know it, it will be your time to draft the best fantasy football squad you can.

There's much anticipation surrounding a number of players in the fantasy landscape, and while some have the potential to outproduce their ADPs, others may fall flat in comparison to their preseason outlooks. It's the perfect time to dive into those players you might need more information about, so let's get to it.

Our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is packed with industry expert analysis, positional tiers, mock drafts, player profiles, rankings for multiple scoring formats, and so much more. The array of tools at your disposal will surely help dominate your fantasy drafts this year, and our experts will continue to provide insight on the crucial topics ahead of the season. If you’re looking for that additional edge on draft day, you’ve come to the right place.

Today's preview highlights our Fantasy Football Draft Guide's sleepers and busts for the 2023 season. We're looking at three players each with full analysis on why some deserve more attention and why you should consider passing on others.

Check them out:

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2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide | Sleeper Picks

Devon Achane, RB, Dolphins
Second to last in 2022 rush attempts, the Dolphins’ offense needed to change something if it was going to live up to its Shanahan principles. Enter third-rounder Achane, the second-highest pick of Miami’s pint-sized draft class. Speaking of pint-sized, there is Achane, all 5-foot-8, 188 pounds of him. That is understandably coloring his rookie perception, but this 21-year-old is no ordinary “speed back.” His 4.32 40-yard dash has him in rarefied air. Someone head coach Mike McDaniel “lobbied heavily” for, Achane is by far the most dynamic runner in a backfield that includes a trio of pedestrian holdovers in Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin (for now). Even were a Dalvin Cook to arrive via trade, Achane’s change-of-pace and pass-catching work seems guaranteed to outshine a summer ADP that had him barely cracking the top 36 at running back. – Patrick Daugherty

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants
Hodgins has something the rest of Brian Daboll’s wide receiver room severely lacks: Size. He caught a touchdown in four of the Giants last five regular season games in 2022. When he’s given the chance to play, he produces. Yes, this is a team that added Darren Waller into the mix to give their offense more of a big-bodied pass catching presence. Unfortunately, Waller has missed 14 games over the last two years. Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt have vertical speed, but we haven’t seen this offense under Daniel Jones get too happy with taking chances down the field. The other wide receivers in Hodgins' way are destined for the slot between Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Jamison Crowder. There is a clear pathway for Hodgins to be the Giants’ primary ‘X’ receiver. Based on where he’s being selected, he’s nearly guaranteed to outproduce his draft position. – Connor Rogers

Christian Watson, WR, Packers
Watson is going to be overlooked this summer as a potential top-12 wideout. He was sixth in air yards over last season’s second half, and only Jerry Jeudy and Davante Adams bested Watson in yards per route run from Weeks 10-18. During the final month of the 2022 season, with both Watson and Romeo Doubs finally healthy, Doubs earned a 15% target share to Watson's 21% (Allen Lazard led the team with a 22% target share over that span). Watson led Green Bay with a 33% air yards share over the season's final four weeks, while Doubs earned 13% of the team's air yards over that stretch. Watson sees the kind of high-value targets that could single-handedly win weeks for fantasy managers in 2023. – Denny Carter

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide | Bust Picks

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
Kincaid is a special athlete. At least allegedly. A back injury prevented him from doing any pre-draft testing. Nevertheless, he enters the NFL on the back of a senior campaign where he led all power five tight ends in receptions (70) and yards per route run (2.42). That’s the good. The bad is that Kincaid was something of a one-year wonder in the PAC-12, one whose best work came when he was almost two full years older than the competition. Kincaid turns 24 in October. He is also being asked to contribute as an immediate pass-catching threat, an infamously difficult task at the tight end position. Just seven rookie seam stretchers have even reached 50 receptions since 2000. That makes TE1 returns extremely unlikely, even in targets-starved Buffalo. – Patrick Daugherty

Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders
I was on the Samuel hype train last season and while it started out great, the ending left much to be desired. New OC Eric Bieniemy will bring a new scheme to Washington and they have a new quarterback (Sam Howell) with a different skill-set. I don’t know where this will leave Samuel, a jack-of-all trades player. Terry McLaurin has the WR1 spot secured and Jahan Dotson showed more than enough promise to make a leap in year two. Bieniemy is sure to get Antonio Gibson more involved in the offense and if they’re using him and Brian Robinson plus the two receivers, where does Samuel fall in line? I have no doubt that Samuel will get manufactured touches in the right spots, but unless we expect this offense to be elite, we can’t draft three receivers from the same offense. Samuel is my odd man out. – Lawrence Jackson

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
I don’t see Taylor face-planting in 2023. He’ll probably have a great year. But there are concerns with his situation and his role that make him a risky bet in the first round. The most notable shortcoming to his game is a lack of usage as a pass-catcher. He has averaged 2.4 or 2.5 receptions per game in all three seasons as a pro. That number didn’t meaningfully shift after the team traded Nyheim Hines and it likely won’t rise after Indy added pass-catching specialist Evan Hull via the draft. The Colts’ offensive line, while still strong, has fallen in Pro Football Focus’ end-of-season rankings for three consecutive years. Finally, Anthony Richardson is going to provide more competition for carries and goal line looks than Taylor has ever seen. All of this sets up Taylor for a good but not elite season. If you want to make a bet purely on talent at running back, take the discount and opt for Nick Chubb a round later than Taylor. – Kyle Dvorchak

If you want to see the rest of the picks, click here and use code BERRY20 for 20% off.