Has 2023 Baker Mayfield outplayed 2022 Tom Brady for the Bucs?
TAMPA — Do not, under any circumstances, try this at home.
It is reckless, irresponsible and fraught with danger. The risk of humiliation is substantial.
Yes, we’re going to compare Baker Mayfield to Tom Brady.
Ludicrous, right? Brady is the standard bearer of NFL quarterbacks. More Super Bowls, wins and yards than anyone who came before him. And Mayfield is, at this point, still a journeyman quarterback with four teams and one postseason victory in his six NFL seasons.
And yet, as his successor in Tampa Bay, there is an irresistible temptation to hold Mayfield up next to Brady and discern the greater shine. Not career for career. Just 2022 for 2023. Just the 45-year-old version of Brady with a weak offensive line versus a 28-year-old Mayfield with a slightly better offensive line.
Because, from that vantage point, Mayfield may be having a better season.
Mind you, this is mostly subjective. It depends on what stats and qualities you value most in a quarterback.
Brady, for instance, was more accurate than Mayfield. He also was way better at getting rid of the ball to avoid sacks, didn’t have as high a propensity for interceptions per pass attempt and was better on deep balls.
But Mayfield has been a more efficient passer when it comes to yards per attempt, has been far better on third down and has used his legs to prolong plays in the pocket and rush for first downs.
It’s not a slam dunk either way and that, alone, is pretty remarkable.
Brady arrived with as much fanfare as any free-agent quarterback in NFL history. His 2022 paycheck was almost 800% higher than Mayfield’s current salary and, even in his worst season in Tampa Bay, he was third in the NFL in passing yards last season.
So it might seem outlandish to suggest Mayfield has provided more value in 2023, but you can judge for yourself.
With different offensive coordinators, the Bucs have attacked defenses in different ways the past two seasons. The 2022 Bucs were horrible at running the ball, and so the entire offense revolved around Brady. That wouldn’t have been a bad thing in 2015 or even 2020, but last year’s version of Brady was virtually immobile. He hardly ever scrambled and was emphatic about getting rid of the ball before taking a sack.
That meant he threw a ton of short passes with little to show for it. His average yards per attempt (6.4) were his lowest in 20 years and defenses began adjusting accordingly. The Bucs scored fewer than 20 points in six of their final eight games, including the playoff loss to Dallas.
The 2023 Bucs also struggled to run early in the season, but eventually found a rhythm between the ground and the air. And that means the Bucs haven’t needed to rely on Mayfield’s arm as much as they did on Brady in 2022.
Yet, perhaps ironically, Mayfield has been far better in the clutch. He has a 100.1 passer rating on third down compared to 81.8 for Brady last season. His average pass attempt has gained 7.9 yards on third down, while Brady had a paltry 5.8 last season. Between passing, scrambling and quarterback sneaks, Mayfield has converted 70 first downs through 14 games. Brady had 67 in 17 games.
And it’s not as if Mayfield has had easier circumstances. The 2023 Bucs have averaged 6.84 yards to go on third down; they averaged 6.18 in 2022.
You could nitpick over the roster makeup, but there really isn’t that much of a difference. Brady had Leonard Fournette to team with Rachaad White in the backfield, along with Russell Gage and Julio Jones as his third and fourth receivers. Mayfield has a sturdier offensive line and White is probably better prepared as the No. 1 back in his second NFL season.
The biggest difference is first-year offensive coordinator Dave Canales has been a little more conservative but also more versatile with his playcalling. The Bucs have gone from averaging 18.4 to 21.1 points per game, which puts them among the top 10 most improved offenses in 2023. The offense has also gotten steadily better this season, averaging 25 points a game since the start of November.
Again, none of this should be considered conclusive evidence.
There is enough variation between the two seasons to make it difficult to choose who has truly performed at a higher level. For what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus gave Brady a 77.5 grade in 2022, which was his lowest since 2009. Mayfield’s 2023 grade is 74.0, which is slightly lower than his first three seasons in Cleveland.
Perhaps the best way to ponder a Brady versus Mayfield year-over-year comparison is this:
Are you laughing at the thought?
GOAT vs. Grinder
The Bucs were heavily reliant on the passing game in Tom Brady’s final season in 2022, so his cumulative numbers could be higher than Baker Mayfield’s. But Mayfield has been more efficient in some ways, with a higher average gain per pass attempt, a higher touchdown percentage and passer rating.
Attempts: Brady, 733; Mayfield, 466
Completions: Brady, 490; Mayfield, 296
Completion Percentage: Brady, 66.8; Mayfield, 63.5
Touchdowns: Brady, 25; Mayfield, 24
Touchdown Percentage: Brady, 3.4; Mayfield, 5.2
Interceptions: Brady, 9; Mayfield, 8
Interception Percentage: Brady, 1.2; Mayfield, 1.7
Yards: Brady, 4,694; Mayfield, 3,315
Yards per attempt: Brady, 6.4; Mayfield, 7.1
Sack Percentage: Brady, 2.9; Mayfield, 6.6
Passer rating: Brady, 90.7; Mayfield, 94.7
John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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