2023-24 Fantasy Hockey: 5 lethal NHL power plays to target in drafts
Not all power plays are created equal. Here are the units to target in your fantasy hockey drafts.
When the NHL season rolls around, there are two things fantasy managers are always interested in: Who’s playing with who at even strength, and who is on the top power-play unit?
This is for good reason — exposure to Connor McDavid at even strength took Zach Hyman from a 56-point pace in 2021-22 to an 86-point pace last season. A full season on Colorado’s vaunted top power play elevated Nazem Kadri from a 13 power-play-point (PPP) pace in 2020-21 to a 33 PPP pace in 2021-22.
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Of course, not all power-play units are created equal. When Kadri left Colorado in free agency to sign with the Calgary Flames, he remained a PP1 fixture, leading all Flames forwards in PP ice time. But the Flames’ power-play unit was very inefficient, and Kadri’s 19 PPP represented a decline of 14 PPP from the previous season in Colorado. It goes without saying this drop-off meant Kadri’s overall fantasy value took a huge hit in almost all formats as a direct result of the situation he was in.
With all this in mind, there are five power plays across the league that I don’t think get their full due for just how much they elevate the fantasy potential of any player lucky enough to get time with the top unit. These units have me excited about the top-end ceiling for their stars but also the potential to foster some breakout seasons for those fringe players who may lock down the fifth and final spot on their respective teams. Let’s get into it:
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa quietly put together a very good power play last season, ranking sixth in the league in scoring chances for per 60 minutes (SCF/60). Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Alex DeBrincat, Drake Batherson, and Thomas Chabot took the lion’s share of minutes there, but Claude Giroux worked in a lot as well.
With DeBrincat leaving and Josh Norris returning from injury, there will be significant personnel shifts on this power play, but I would project Tkachuk/Stützle/Batherson as near locks with Norris and Giroux fighting it out for the fourth forward spot.
It’s very difficult to parse the situation on the back end, as Chabot was replaced on PP1 towards the end of the season by rookie Jake Sanderson. Sanderson was not particularly effective in the role and to further complicate matters, the Senators also acquired Jakob Chychrun via trade in-season, who has a history of being a power-play weapon with a blistering point shot.
Chychrun is the guy I would get the most excited about from a fantasy ceiling perspective if he did get the role, but I’m nearly 50/50 on whether he will get it or the Senators will decide to roll with Chabot as the primary guy for another season.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers were a little snake-bitten on the power play last season (despite their 22.8% conversion rate) before cashing in a lot of that karma in their run to the Stanley Cup Final. In those playoffs, the Panthers appeared to more or less settle on a top unit of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Brandon Montour. I’m bullish on all five players to return value at their current average draft position (ADP) on Yahoo, but Bennett and Reinhart in particular could significantly outperform consensus expectations in this situation.
The potential fly in the ointment here is the Panthers also have Carter Verhaeghe fresh off a 42-goal season, as well as former PP1 quarterback and franchise defenseman Aaron Ekblad. Ekblad will be working back from injury and may be less of a threat, but keep in mind the Panthers did use a two-defenseman alignment on the top power play at times last year, with Montour and Ekblad on the ice together. If either of these two make a push for top power-play time, expect it to come at the expense of Bennett, who was the player most commonly bumped last year when changes were made.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils had a relatively run-of-the-mill power play last season, ranking 13th in the league with a 21.9% conversion rate. This season, it’s hard to see a way that doesn’t improve with snipers Timo Meier and Tyler Toffoli in the fold.
I’d anticipate Meier will get the first crack on the top power play after signing a monster eight-year, $70.4-million contract this offseason, coming on alongside mainstays Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Dougie Hamilton. That would leave Toffoli on the outside looking in, but having a player of his caliber able to step up in case of injury is another feather in the cap of this unit.
Stylistically, I like how a Hughes/Meier duo could provide two dynamic shooting options while Hischier and Bratt can distribute and create space. Having one of the league’s best quarterbacks on the back end in Hamilton is also a luxury that few can match. With the fifth player and another big time shooter added, I think the New Jersey power play could take the next step this year and end the season as a top-five unit league-wide.
New York Rangers
Speaking of top-five units league-wide, the Rangers ranked in the top three in Corsi For, scoring chances for, and shots on goal per 60 minutes last season. Only a mediocre team shooting percentage kept them out of the top five in conversion rate, and they missed that mark by less than a percentage point. A little positive regression in the shooting efficiency could boost the Rangers back into that range with ease.
The Rangers have a solid core group on the top power-play unit with Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Adam Fox as multi-year fixtures. Last year saw a mix of Vincent Trocheck and Filip Chytil in the fifth spot for much of the season before the additions of Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko threw things into even more flux.
My current thought is that Trocheck gets first crack at the bumper role, but Chytil could mix in as well — both ran hot and cold there last season. If Trocheck is able to hold down the spot all season he should be considered a strong value pick in drafts.
Calgary Flames
Bringing this one full circle, I think the Flames have a chance under new coach Ryan Huska to change the fortune of their power play. The Flames have also designated former NHL star Marc Savard as the power-play coach, a move I can only interpret favorably as the Flames scored on just 12.1% of their shots on the man advantage last season, good for 27th in the league. On a team that has a solid mix of playmaking and shooting ability, that reeks of a poor fundamental system and a situation that could vastly improve with good coaching.
I see four spots on the Flames’ power play as more or less set for opening night. Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm, and Rasmus Andersson should all reprise their roles there. Huberdeau’s struggles were well-documented last season, but I don’t think a player of his caliber can be held down forever. Whether the fifth and final member of this unit is Andrew Mangiapane, newcomer Jakob Pelletier, or someone else entirely, I think the pieces are there as each of these players has shown the ability to be efficient on power-play work in the past.
Let’s cross our fingers the coaching turns the ship around and we get some fantasy goodness out of the situation this year.
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Nate Groot Nibbelink is the creator of Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey and the originator of the #ZeroG draft strategy. You can find him pontificating about obscure fantasy hockey strategy topics in the Apples & Ginos Discord Server or on Twitter/X @applesginos.
