2022 NBA draft race: March 8 update for Rockets, Nets picks
With Houston owning one of the NBA’s worst records, the 2022 playoffs are already off the table for the Rockets. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to still watch for as the 2021-22 campaign winds down.
From now until the regular season’s conclusion on April 10, we’re regularly updating where the Rockets stand in relation to their closest “competitors” in the race for 2022 NBA draft odds and positioning.
Houston owns two picks in this year’s first round: Their own, and one from Brooklyn. For purposes of these updates, we’re going to focus on teams who are currently (at the time of publication) within three games in either direction of both the Rockets and Nets in the standings.
After a second straight season at the bottom of the West, will the Rockets land another elite prospect such as Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, or Paolo Banchero for their troubles? Scroll on for the latest updates as of March 8, along with information on odds and tiebreaker scenarios.
Lottery Race Update: Pistons wisely commit late foul blunder but Hawks reject gift, refuse win. Rockets back in a tie for #1. Standings:
1. Houston 16-49
1. Orlando 16-49
3. Detroit 18-47
4. Oklahoma City 20-44
5. Indiana 22-44— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) March 8, 2022
Monday’s most relevant results (March 7)
It is beneficial to the eventual landing spot of both picks for teams in the closest standings proximity to Houston and Brooklyn to win. The reverse is true when it comes to each team’s own results, since the best-case outcomes for draft odds and slots arise from having a worse record.
With that in mind, here’s the teams to focus on, as of March 8.
Teams within three games of Houston: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons
Teams within three games of Brooklyn: Los Angeles Lakers, Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Toronto Raptors
Monday’s games involving any of those teams:
Pistons 113, Hawks 110
Heat 123, Rockets 106
Spurs 117, Lakers 110
Tuesday’s most relevant games (March 8)
Teams within three games of Houston: Magic, Pistons
Teams within three games of Brooklyn: Lakers, Wizards, Hawks, Hornets, Clippers, Raptors
Tuesday’s games involving any of those teams:
Nets at Hornets (6:00 p.m. CST tipoff)
Suns at Magic (6:00 p.m. CST)
Clippers at Warriors (9:00 p.m. CST)
Updated March 8 standings for Houston’s pick
Houston’s current draft placement + teams within three games:
1. Orlando, 16-49
1. Houston, 16-49
3. Detroit, 18-47
With Houston’s loss to Miami on Monday, the Rockets are now tied with the Magic for the No. 1 odds spot in the 2022 NBA draft. Both teams continue to put some separation between themselves and the Pistons, who defeated Atlanta to secure their sixth win in eight games.
What happens if it ultimately finishes in a tie? More on that later.
Updated March 8 standings for Brooklyn’s pick
Brooklyn’s current draft placement + teams within three games:
11. Los Angeles Lakers, 28-36
12. Washington (lottery), 29-34
13. Atlanta (lottery), 31-33
14. Brooklyn, 32-33
15. Charlotte, 32-33
16. Los Angeles Clippers, 34-32
17. Toronto, 34-30
The Lakers (margin of 3.5 games), Wizards (2.0), and Hawks (0.5) are slightly in front of the Nets in current draft positioning. Charlotte is tied. All three of the Hawks, Nets, and Hornets are tracking to play in the East play-in tournament for the playoffs, with the results of that determining who picks in the lottery and who goes later in the first round.
The Clippers (1.5) and Raptors (2.5) are just behind Brooklyn.
Draft lottery odds, without ties
This chart applies to Houston’s pick, as well as Brooklyn’s if they miss the Eastern Conference playoffs. The NBA’s current lottery system involving the 14 non-playoff teams draws for the first four picks by weighted odds (with the worst teams having better odds), and the 10 teams who are not drawn are then slotted by record from No. 5 to No. 14.
Note that while the top-four odds are identical for the bottom-three teams, there is a significant difference when it comes to “floor” scenarios. The No. 1 seed (i.e. worst record) cannot fall below No. 5 overall, whereas the No. 3 seed (third-worst record) can drop to the No. 7 pick.
There are now 4 slots instead of 3 that are being drawn for. But there are the percentages without ties from @tankathon pic.twitter.com/aMsyhFXOU8
— Bulls Scripted (@BullScripted) November 3, 2018
(via Tankathon)
Frequently asked questions
What happens if there is a tie? Tied lottery teams split their draft lottery odds evenly. For example, if Houston and Oklahoma City tie for the No. 3 seed, or the third-worst record, the combined odds between No. 3 and No. 4 would then be split down the middle. Consider it 3.5.
However, a random coin flip would also be held to determine which team drafts higher in scenarios where neither team is a lottery winner. Head-to-head results between any tied teams are not considered.
What happens if Brooklyn goes on a deep playoff run out of a low seed? This is a fair question, since part of Brooklyn’s underwhelming season is due to injuries involving key players like Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons, along with the part-time availability of Kyrie Irving due to New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. It’s possible that some or all of those problems might be resolved by the playoffs, which could make the Nets more dangerous than their record might suggest.
However, unlike the NFL, results in the playoffs cannot change a team’s draft spot in the NBA. Even if the Nets were to somehow win the NBA championship out of the No. 8 seed, their draft pick (headed to Houston) would be solely based on their regular-season record.
Remaining strength of schedule, as of March 8
A higher strength-of-schedule number means that team has a harder remaining schedule, which on paper suggests that they are more likely to lose games. If that occurs, it could lead to superior draft positioning in a “race” with competitors who have easier schedules.
Rockets and teams within three games:
Houston: No. 23 in the NBA
Orlando: No. 13
Detroit: No. 12
Nets and teams within three games:
Lakers: No. 1
Washington: No. 24
Charlotte: No. 17
Atlanta: No. 29
Clippers: No. 2
Brooklyn: No. 27
Toronto: No. 10
(via Tankathon)
Next three Rockets, Nets games, as of March 8
Houston: Los Angeles Lakers (home, 3/9), Dallas (home, 3/11), New Orleans (road, 3/13)
Brooklyn: Charlotte (road, 3/8), Philadelphia (road, 3/10), New York (home, 3/13)
This post originally appeared on Rockets Wire. Follow us on Facebook!
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