2018 Fantasy Basketball draft tips: Who are the comeback kids this year?
By Alex Barutha, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
Whether it’s due to injury, lack of chemistry, or some other unpredictable factor, each season there are always players who underperform relative to expectations. But one bad year isn’t always a slippery slope that leads to progressively worse seasons. Some players bounce back. By identifying bounce-back candidates, you may be able to get some steals in fantasy drafts in which other owners are too hesitant to pull the trigger.
Gordon Hayward, Celtics
Hayward missed all but 315 seconds of last season due to a gruesome ankle injury on opening night. After nearly a full year of rehab, word arrived in late August that Hayward has made a complete recovery and will be a full participant in training camp. During his final season with the Jazz, Hayward made his first All-Star team by averaging an efficient 21.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.0 steals.
Given that Hayward was able to make an All-Star team in the more competitive Western Conference, it’s hard to say he’s not capable of similar production in the East even after missing an entire year. The emergence of both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown may give fantasy owners some pause, but Hayward is still the most talented of the three and is in line to be the team’s No. 2 option behind Kyrie Irving.
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Kawhi Leonard, Raptors
As a result of a quad injury still shrouded in mystery, Leonard only appeared in nine games for the Spurs last season and ended up being dealt to Toronto in mid-July as tensions between him and the organization reached a breaking point. Due to the lack of information surrounding the injury, as well as the adjustment to a new situation, the former Finals MVP is undoubtedly a risky pickup, but one that carries high reward potential.
During his two All-Star campaigns, Leonard averaged a combined 23.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.9 threes and a combined 2.7 steals/blocks while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 87.8 percent from the free-throw line. If he can trend closer to those numbers this season while playing at least 65 games, he’ll be worth a first-round selection.
John Wall, Wizards
After three straight seasons of improvement, Wall regressed last season. However, it was unlikely that he was completely healthy, as he missed 41 games due to a recurring knee injury. Wall still managed to be voted to his fifth straight All-Star game but averaged fewer points (19.4), assists (9.6), rebounds (3.1), steals (1.4) than in 2016-17. His efficiency also fell, as his true shooting percentage dropped from 54.1 to 51.5 percent. With the expectation that he’ll be fully healthy, plus the addition of Dwight Howard as a pick-and-roll finisher, it’s fair to expect Wall to look more like his usual self this season.
Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Injuries have limited Conley throughout his career, and last season was no exception. Conley, who hasn’t played more than 70 games since 2013-14, appeared in just 12 contests in 2017-18, eventually undergoing surgery to address a heel/Achilles injury. He didn’t look right during most of those games, shooting under 40 percent from the field after converting 46.0 percent of his attempts in 2016-17.
It’s important to temper expectations for Conley considering his injury history and age (31), but he’s flirted with All-Star production over the past several years. From his age-26 through age-29 seasons, he averaged 17.3 points (44.6 FG%, 84.3 FT%), 5.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game. If he stays healthy, Conley should again be among the league’s more dependable point guards.
Paul Millsap, Nuggets
Millsap had only 16 games to integrate with his new teammates before suffering a broken hand, which kept him out until late February. While his production suffered nearly across the board, it’s important to note that Millsap saw fewer than 30 minutes in almost half of his appearances, due in large part to the team exercising caution in bringing him back. The four-time All-Star was still his usual self when playing at least 30 minutes, averaging 17.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and a combined 1.9 blocks/steals in those contests. Now back to full health and having built chemistry with his teammates, Millsap is a strong candidate to see his numbers trend upward.
Zach LaVine, Bulls
LaVine was able to put in 24 games for the Bulls last season following an ACL tear that occurred midway through the 2016-17 campaign. While his counting stats held up, for the most part, he shot just 38.3 percent from the field. Considering he launched 19.5 shots per 36 minutes, the Bulls were more concerned with LaVine getting back on the floor and playing with confidence rather than worrying about his efficiency.
During the season he suffered the injury, LaVine was making clear strides as a volume scorer, averaging 18.9 points while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and drilling 2.6 threes per night. Bulls management showed plenty of confidence this summer in LaVine’s ability to continue developing, inking him to a four-year, $78 million contract. Even with more talent around him, LaVine should be the No.1 scoring option this season.
Carmelo Anthony, Rockets
Anthony is coming off the worst season of his career after failing to settle into a secondary role with the Thunder. A breakup seemed almost inevitable after OKC got bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Jazz, a much less top-heavy team in terms of talent. This year, in his age-34 season, Anthony will again be flanked by two of the league’s best players and will attempt to find a role he’s comfortable with.
There’s reason to believe the partnership between Anthony and the Rockets will be more successful than with the Thunder. During each of his final two years in New York, Anthony ranked second in the league in isolation possessions per game. Across both years, he averaged 5.2 points off of 5.4 isos per contest. Those numbers dropped to 2.8 PPG on 3.1 isos per game last season.
Oklahoma City was undoubtedly an isolation-heavy team, finishing second in total iso possessions (959) behind, ironically, Houston (1,280). But the difference in total possessions between the Thunder and Rockets was about the difference between Oklahoma City and the 13th-ranked team, New Orleans (636). When the iso duties fall on either James Harden or Chris Paul, Anthony should be standing along the three-point line waiting for a pocket pass. That was the Rockets’ plan all of last season, and they launched the most threes of any team (42.3 per game) at by far the highest rate.
There’s reason to be skeptical, but taking a chance on Anthony in fantasy while his stock is at an all-time low has payoff potential. His major drop-off as a scorer already happened, and fantasy owners got burned. But Anthony is still a productive contributor, and the hope is that he’ll be able to sustain this current level of production going forward.
JaVale McGee, Lakers
McGee has played fewer than 10 minutes per game each of the past two seasons with the Warriors, and as a result he’s been a fantasy afterthought. That may change now that McGee is in Los Angeles. The team’s only two other options at the position are Moritz Wagner, the 25th overall pick in this year’s draft, and Ivica Zubac, who played more minutes in the G League than in the NBA last season.
McGee hasn’t cracked 15 minutes per contest in five years, so banking on him seeing more run than that consistently is a gamble. But he can rack up numbers in limited action. When he averaged 17.5 minutes playing for Denver between 2011-12 and 2014-15, McGee posted 8.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game while shooting 57.5 percent from the field. More recently, McGee ranked third in the league in block percentage (7.3%) last season, so if the minutes are there, at the very least he could be a blocks specialist.
Other Notables
Isaiah Thomas, Nuggets
His stock bottomed out after last season, but he’ll be fully healthy for training camp and should garner sixth-man minutes in a thin guard rotation.
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
Last season, Memphis posted its worst record in Gasol’s entire tenure and leaned on him so heavily it destroyed his field-goal percentage. The return of Mike Conley, plus the addition of Jaren Jackson and depth on the wing, could put Gasol in a more comfortable role.
D’Angelo Russell, Nets
He has played only 111 games over the past two years due to injuries, which has hampered his development. However, he’s still just 22 years old and is entering a contract year. Playing well is a must.
Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers
Portland lost its most reliable backup center in Ed Davis, who played better than Nurkic for stretches last season. If Zach Collins isn’t ready to step into that role, Terry Stotts may have to lean more heavily on Nurkic than ever before.
