2015 Breakdowns: First Base

We have a throwback first-base class this year, with four deserving first-round picks from the position. Miguel Cabrera, no longer third-base eligible in most formats, isn’t the same sure thing he always is while coming off foot surgery, but even while he was limited for much of last year, he finished third in the majors in RBI, tied for fifth in runs scored and 10th in average. Jose Abreu stole the show as a rookie, finishing fourth in homers, fifth in RBI and sixth in average, and while it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll hit .317 again, he should have a much improved supporting cast in Chicago, giving him a chance to boost his RBI and especially his run numbers.

Those two are neck-and-neck for the top spot in my projections. How healthy Cabrera looks this spring will determine whether he moves up slightly or falls back behind Abreu. I’m pretty optimistic about Cabrera; he plays through just about anything anyway, and he’ll probably be closer to 100 percent in April than he was for much of last year. It does bother me that Brad Ausmus is looking to stick Alex Avila or, gulp, Jose Iglesias ahead of him in the two spot in Detroit’s order, but someone else should emerge in the end.

Here are my underrateds and overrateds for first base and the DH spot this year. For my complete projections and rankings, please consider purchasing the draft guide.

Underrated

Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays): Encarnacion was second in the majors to Chris Carter last year when it came to homers per plate appearance and second to Devin Mesoraco in RBI per plate appearance. Unfortunately, he was limited to 128 games by a strained quad, but he’s remained quite healthy otherwise these last four years. He strikes out about as infrequently as any other top power hitter, and he’s in a terrific situation for driving in runs hitting behind Jose Reyes, Russell Martin and Jose Bautista in Toronto. It all stands to make him a legitimate first-round pick in my mind and the No. 3 first baseman ahead of Paul Goldschmidt. He’s currently going off the board 15th in Yahoo leagues, but I have him sixth overall. Giancarlo Stanton is the only player who is a better bet in homers and RBI.

Prince Fielder (Rangers): Fielder is certainly a roll of the dice this year after surgery last May to fuse discs in his neck, but he’s too good of one to be lasting into the fourth or fifth round of mixed-league drafts. There just aren’t that many guys capable of hitting 30 homers and driving in 100 runs these days, and Fielder reached one or both of those marks in seven straight seasons prior to last year’s debacle. One can point to the fact that he seemed to be in decline even before the neck troubles, but I believe personal problems were largely at the root of his off year in 2013. He’s completely recovered from surgery now, and he’ll enter spring with no restrictions. There’s the chance that having less flexibility in the neck area will cost him some power, but even if that happens, fantasy leaguers will probably get what they pay for, given his reduced price tag. I have him at 32 homers and 106 RBI, making him my No. 5 first baseman (albeit, a distant fifth). He’s No. 34 in the top 300.

Joe Mauer (Twins): It seems the world is convinced that a first baseman likely to top out at 10 homers isn’t much worth drafting in mixed leagues. Mauer is going in the 21st rounds of Yahoo leagues, putting him in the same territory as Steve Pearce and Mike Napoli. I don’t really see Mauer hitting more than 10 homers, either, but I think the average will make up for it. After all, he’s a career .319 hitter who hit .319 and .324 in his final two years behind the plate before making the move to first base and turning into a fantasy bust last year. I’m projecting a .308 average and solid enough numbers across the board to make him my No. 13 first baseman. He’s not a particularly good bet in runs or RBI while hitting so few homers, but he’s still going to hit third in a Twins lineup that is a heck of a lot better than it was a couple of years back.

Brandon Belt (Giants): Belt was a favorite pick of many a year ago after taking a big step forward in 2013, hitting .289 with 17 homers and 39 doubles in 509 at-bats. Unfortunately, he went down in May with a broken left thumb, the result of a HBP, and his second half was a mess because of a concussion sustained when he was hit in the face in batting practice. The hope is that he’s completely past the concussion now, though that’s impossible to know for sure. Still, there haven’t been any setbacks this winter, and the Giants appear to be leaning towards batting him third ahead of Buster Posey and Hunter Pence, which would be quite a show of confidence. Belt still doesn’t figure to be a huge power guy while playing half his games in a very tough park, but he’s one of the best CI options around. As is, he’s going off the board 190th in Yahoo leagues.

Overrated

Anthony Rizzo (Cubs): I don’t believe Rizzo’s breakthrough 2014 was any sort of fluke, and my guess is that he has better seasons in store for the future. Still, I can’t get behind him as a first- or early second-round pick in drafts this year. While the Cubs have become a fashionable postseason pick, the offense beyond Rizzo is a clear work in progress. Even with 32 homers last season, Rizzo finished at 89 runs scored and just 78 RBI in 140 games. He’s looking at more help behind him with a full year of Jorge Soler and hopefully three-quarters of a year from Kris Bryant, but I wouldn’t want to count on him being a big RBI guy behind some combination of Dexter Fowler, Starlin Castro and Arismendy Alcantara. I have him 44th in the top 300.

Freddie Freeman (Braves): Freeman, on the other hand, can only dream of having Rizzo’s modest lineup support. The current guess is that he’ll bat third behind Andrelton Simmons, who had a .286 OBP last season, and ahead of Chris Johnson, who slugged .361 last year. Manager Fredi Gonzalez is also talking about batting him fourth to get him more RBI chances, but regardless of where he bats, he’s just not looking at getting much help, especially against righties. I’m not writing off Freeman for 2016 and beyond, but I have the feeling this year could be a disaster, particularly if he starts expanding his strike zone and trying to do much. He’s a terrific player with several All-Star caliber seasons still in his future, but he’s my No. 1 position player to avoid this year.

David Ortiz (Red Sox): Ortiz continued to amaze last year, finishing with his high home run (35) and RBI (104) totals since 2007. Unfortunately, wrist inflammation troubled him in September, similar to what he felt in 2008 when he required surgery. He didn’t need surgery this time around, but it’s still a situation to watch, and if he has any recurrence of the issues this spring, he’ll join Freeman on the must-avoid list. At this point, I just have him down as moderately overrated. He’ll certainly benefit from improvement around him in the Red Sox lineup this year, but he is 39 now; when the end comes, it won’t be pretty.

Sleepers

Kennys Vargas (Twins): Despite hitting .279 with nine homers in 215 at-bats as a rookie, Vargas is getting drafted in just three percent of Yahoo leagues. I have my share of concerns, too; Vargas isn’t only a massive guy, but he’s a massive switch-hitter with two distinct swings he has to manage. I’m not convinced he won’t end up back in the minors at some point this year. However, if he can keep his average in the .240-.250 range and remain in the cleanup spot for the Twins, he has a great chance of finishing up with about 25 homers and 90 RBI. He strikes out plenty, but he makes a lot of hard contact, too. He’s a pretty perfect use of a bench spot in mixed leagues.

Adam Lind (Brewers): Lind was hardly held back by his ballpark in Toronto, but now he’s making his way to Milwaukee, which has played as the second-best home run park for left-handed hitters over the last three years (behind Cincinnati). Lind had back and foot problems which seemed to sap his power last year, but he hit 321 anyway. In 2013, he hit .288 with 23 homers. Lind shouldn’t ever start against lefties, so he’s not an ideal mixed-league option. However, he’ll probably be good enough against righties to eke out a little value, and he’s a nice choice in NL-only leagues.

Yonder Alonso (Padres): It’s hard to believe that the Padres’ new front office made all of those moves and didn’t replace the perennially disappointing first baseman; they must see something they like. I think they made the right call. Even while dealing with another round of wrist problems, Alonso had an isolated slugging percentage of .157 in 267 at-bats last season, which is pretty good for a Petco player. His average was way down, but his strikeout rate remained great; he fanned in just one-eighth of his plate appearances for the second straight season. Between his history of hitting for solid averages, his improved power last year and the terrific contact rate, he seems like a bet worth making. Plus, if he does hit, as the Padres’ lone left-handed threat, he could soon find himself in the middle of the order. It’s still not at all likely that he’ll have mixed-league value, but NL-only leaguers could grab him late and turn a tidy little profit.

Kyle Blanks (Rangers): Unfortunately, both Blanks (Achilles’ tendon) and Mitch Moreland (ankle) are coming off significant leg injuries, ruling out the possibility of the Rangers stashing one of them in left field, at least for the early part of the season. Expectations are that Moreland will be the primary DH. Blanks would be a nice platoonmate for him against lefties, but it remains to be seen if there’s room for both, and since Blanks is on a minor league deal, it’d be easy enough to send him to Triple-A initially. I’m hoping it doesn’t come to that. Finally free of Petco and in a nice park for hitters for the first time in his career, Blanks could become a real force in the middle of the Rangers order, given the opportunity. Injuries have plagued him throughout his career, but he’s hit 30 homers in 760 career at-bats anyway. Moreland has already had 1,565 at-bats to show that he’s little more than a replacement player. If Blanks can win the job and rack up 500 at-bats, I’d expect a .240-250 average, 18-20 homers and 70-80 RBI.

Garrett Jones (Yankees): I’m not endorsing Jones as a player; I’ve thought he’s been washed up for a good year and a half now. Players with his profile have rarely proven useful past 32, and Jones is turning 34 in June. Still, Jones qualifies for a spot here, all because of that short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will continue to deal with injuries up and down their lineup this season, and Jones will be ready to step in against righties the moment Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez or Carlos Beltran lands on the disabled list. Once it happens, he’ll probably post decent enough power numbers to give him mixed-league value for weeks at a time.