With 16 games left in the season, 16 observations on the Milwaukee Brewers

Thursday, as many have been in the last month, was a good day for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Behind the return of Adrian Houser from the injured list, timely hitting against Miami Marlins rookie phenom Eury Perez and a dominant bullpen showing, the Brewers picked up a 4-2 win to seize the four-game series.

And not only did the Brewers win, but losses by the Reds and Giants (as well as the Marlins) moved Milwaukee one step closer to a fifth playoff berth in six seasons.

Rather than delivering three takeaways from the win — the standard fare in terms of postgame analysis around these parts — here are 16 thoughts and observations on the Brewers with 16 games remaining in the regular season.

1. The Brewers have put themselves in an excellent position

Before we delve into the nitty gritty, let’s go over the big picture first.

It certainly looks favorable for the Brewers.

With Thursday’s win, the Brewers lead the Chicago Cubs by 4½ games in the National League Central and have a magic number to clinch the division of 12. Their magic number to reach the postseason is nine.

It’s a near-certainty that the Brewers are playing postseason ball; they enter the weekend series with the Washington Nationals with playoffs odds of 99.9%, according to Fangraphs.

So while you may not want to pop the champagne just yet, you're probably safe to stock up on it.

2. The Brewers' aces are pitching like, well, aces

It’s always impossible to predict what could happen over a short baseball playoff series, but the Brewers have arguably the best playoff starting rotation, and it’s not just in name only. They’re pitching like they are.

In the second half, Brandon Woodruff’s 2.22 ERA is the second-best of any starter in the National League. Freddy Peralta (2.51) is fifth. Corbin Burnes (2.76) is seventh.

That trio has taken turns delivering dominant outings, flashing on the regular why they are regarded as top-tier starters in Major League Baseball.

3. The rotation lines up well the rest of the regular season, too

Milwaukee should be able to line up its rotation for the playoffs, too.

The final game of the regular season is Oct. 1. The NLDS begins two days later. The Brewers not only hope to have the division wrapped up before the Cubs come to town for the final three games of the season, but the rotation as it currently is lined up could fall into place in a way that automatically has the top three starters rested.

The Brewers could bring in a sixth starter during the next turn through the rotation — they optioned Colin Rea to Class AAA Thursday, so it would to be someone else not currently on the roster or a bullpen day — but if they don’t, then it shapes up that Burnes would pitch Wednesday in St. Louis, then Woodruff, then Peralta.

That would give each starter a full complement of five days’ rest before taking the ball in the postseason.

4. Adrian Houser looked good in his return and that’s no small detail

The Brewers' four playoff starters, assuming health, are obvious, with Miley tacked onto the back of the three aces.

That leaves Adrian Houser in a swingman role on the playoff roster. His ability to go multiple innings or attack parts of opposing lineups heavy on right-handed hitters because of his sinker could prove valuable.

Because of that, his five solid innings in his return from the injured list Thursday served as a positive sign.

5. The offense still doesn't have a ton of power

The Brewers offense remains something of an enigma. It's been scoring runs (more on that in a bit) but doing so without power, and the overall numbers still aren’t ideal.

Milwaukee has only hit 50 homers in the second half, which is the fewest in baseball. Teams are sometimes knocked for generating too much of their offense via the long ball but the Brewers, who only score 39% of their runs from home runs, are on the other end of the spectrum.

6. Why the lack of homers could be a concern down the road

For years, the prevailing theory in baseball was that teams who excelled at small ball, ones who could manufacture runs and hit situationally, were the ones who won in the postseason.

While there is certainly still value in doing those things, it’s been shown that the opposite is actually true; the teams that hit the most homers typically win playoff series.

When the quality of pitching increases as it does in the playoffs, it becomes harder to consistently string together three singles. It’s still hard to bop one over the fence against good pitchers, too, but doing that requires only a couple good swings per game and results in guaranteed runs.

7. The Brewers have been better at scoring runs, however

Milwaukee’s offense, much-maligned over the course of the year, has been better of late. There’s no denying it.

Since being swept in Los Angeles Aug. 15-17, the Brewers are 11th in baseball in runs and average 5.6 per game.

Five runs is going to win a lot of ball games with this pitching staff, and it’s no coincidence that the Brewers are 17-6 since.

They’ve been doing it with quality at-bats (their 10.7% walk rate is second in MLB in that time), timely hitting (.266 average) and taking advantage of batted ball luck when it goes their way.

8. What is the Brewers' offensive identity?

The question was posed to outfielder Tyrone Taylor after Thursday’s win over Miami. He paused to think it over before saying the following:

“On any given day, you don’t know who it’s going to be to clutch up for us. We have such a good pitching staff that whenever we score, shoot, a couple runs, we have a good chance of going out there and winning. Just trying to get it done any way we can and we do a good job of it.”

Will it work for the Brewers in October? Time will tell.

9. The 2023 Brewers are a testament to depth

Taylor’s quote could be applied to the entire season for the Brewers, really; sure, come October this is a team built around its elite pitchers, but they are where they are because they’ve gotten contributions from up and down the roster.

Colin Rea is third on the team in innings pitched. Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero were lightly heralded trade pickups. Andruw Monasterio is the everyday third baseman. Trevor Megill was a roster space casualty with iffy numbers in Minnesota.

This is the work of the Brewers front office, which scours every avenue they can in hopes of extracting some level of value, and does it as well as any team in baseball.

10. Tyrone Taylor has been a big part of this run, too

When you think of players on the fringes of the roster who have been important, Taylor’s name arises.

The metrics say Taylor has been a replacement-level player this year. On the whole, that’s hard to argue — his OPS, after all, still is only .658.

But remember how poor of a start he got off to?

On the morning of July 26, Taylor was batting .153 with a .394 OPS. Since, he has been the Brewers’ third-best hitter by OPS (excluding Josh Donaldson, who just got here) and is fourth among position players in wins above replacement.

“I think what we’re talking about with Tyrone is he can contribute to the game in every facet,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “Yesterday, he made a great defensive play in a loss but on a Bryse Wilson ball that kind of goes unnoticed. He’s an exceptional defender. The hits, he’s doing a nice job. He gets some stretches where he swings the bat and is definitely a contributor.”

11. Speaking of Josh Donaldson…

Some fans expressed disdain over the Brewers signing Donaldson to a minor league after the Yankees released him, whether it be for concerns about clubhouse chemistry or looking at his statline with New York (which, on the surface, wasn’t good).

But it hasn’t taken long to see what Donaldson can bring to an offense, especially this one, and why Milwaukee brought him in.

He hits the ball hard.

In just four games, Donaldson has already had four batted balls over 98 mph, including a 107.2 mph homer on Tuesday.

The Brewers rank just 25th in MLB in average exit velocity this year and even in September, when they’ve been scoring runs at an increased clip, are still 26th in that area.

12. Mark Canha has become vital to the offense

The numbers for Mark Canha probably speak for themselves — he’s hitting .303 with a .853 OPS as a Brewer — but there’s a greater impact he seems to have on the offense that’s tougher to gauge qualitatively.

His at-bats, maybe more than anyone on the team, are quality. And they’re consistent.

He chases less than anyone on the team outside Rowdy Tellez but also swings at hittable pitches in the zone more often than many “patient” hitters. His contact rates are as good as anyone, including batted-ball savant Sal Frelick, while also having some damage in his profile — he’s got four homers and seven doubles with Milwaukee.

It sometimes feels like Canha’s approach is contagious. It’s no shock that whenever there’s a big rally from the offense, he’s usually involved.

13. Don’t underestimate the role of chemistry

Something else that’s hard to quantify but undoubtedly matters: This squad is a tight-knit bunch. They keep it light and they keep it steady — seriously, the difference in the clubhouse mood following the potentially deflating sweep to the Dodgers last month wasn’t a whole lot different than it was following Thursday’s win to take the series over Miami.

It’s night-and-day different than last year at this time when the team was scrapping to try and stay alive in the postseason hunt but didn’t seem to have the same energy day-to-day.

14. Abner Uribe is going to play a key role down the stretch

Seemingly in the blink of an eye, rookie flame thrower Abner Uribe has become one of Counsell’s most trusted arms. Look at his last three outings.

Tie game in the fifth against the Yankees.

Tie game in the 10th against the Yankees.

One-run lead in the 7th against the Marlins.

While Uribe is still walking batters — and probably always will to some degree — he’s not getting hit. Opponents only have 13 base hits (and no homers) against him in 26 outings.

He’s going to pitch big innings in the playoffs.

15. The Brewers should (and will) give some rest to top bullpen arms late

Uribe has never thrown more than 45 innings in any season before this year. He’s at 48 and counting in 2023.

Elvis Peguero’s career-high was 57 ⅔ until this year, when he’s already up to 60.

In four previous big-league seasons, Joel Payamps had never surpassed 60 innings. He’s at 65 now.

It’s important to find pockets of rest over the final two-plus weeks for these three arms, as well as the rest of the bullpen. It’s a process the Brewers have already started, and the early results looked good Thursday as all three relievers tossed scoreless innings.

ye“It’s something that is part of our decisions every single day,” Counsell said. “It’s important and it’s a big picture thing. We’re trying to balance a lot of different goals here. But the most important goal is, to me, that those guys when they go out there, they feel good. They’ve carried a heavy load and they’re due some rest and we’ve been able to give them some rest.”

16. What may ultimately swing the pendulum for the Brewers is …

Which version of Christian Yelich do the Brewers get the rest of the way?

Over a 50-game span up through August 4, when his OPS peaked at a season-high .857, Yelich was dominant. He batted .338, hit nine homers, scored 37 runs and had a .991 OPS.

Granted, it would have been very difficult for any hitter in baseball to keep that pace up over a longer period, but since then, Yelich’s OPS is just .586.

He’s missed the last six games with back pain, something that, while Yelich would never admit to it, almost certainly played a role in his offensive numbers declining over the last six weeks.

Yelich remains the single-greatest ceiling-lifter on Milwaukee’s offense. He’s shown the ability to play at an elite level still, and done so recently. If he can get back to healthy and lethal with the bat, that makes the Brewers a serious threat.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee Brewers nearing 2023 playoffs with magic number down to 9