16 college football teams that can legitimately win the national title in 2023
As of this college football season, there are 10 conferences and 133 schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
While it is safe to assume that many of those teams believe they have some shot at making the playoff and winning it all, the trends tell us otherwise. In fact, according to 247Sports, there are truly only 16 teams in the country that have a legitimate chance at hosting that big gold trophy come January.
You may be asking why only 16 and how did the site determine what makes a championship team. Let me tell you!
According to Bud Elliot of 247Sports, teams that have the most blue-chip prospects are the ones that have the best chance at winning the national title. While it isn’t shocking to hear someone say the teams with the best players have the best chance to win it all, it has been repeated each and every year.
Dating to its introduction in 2013, the blue-chip ratio is commonly referred to in order to figure out who the true contenders are by coaches, media and fans alike. If you aren’t familiar with the concept, it essentially comes down to which rosters consist of the most four- and five-star players. Dating to 2011, the team to win it all has had at least half of its roster made up of blue-chip recruits.
Elliot calculated the teams that have at least 51% of their roster be made up of blue-chip recruits and there are only 16 of them. Of those 16 teams, six of them reside in the SEC, three reside in the Big Ten, two in the Big 12, two in the ACC, one independent and two in the Pac-12.
While this doesn’t guarantee that all 16 teams will be contenders being that development by the coaches and other factors also come into play, it can give some insight into who to look out for. Let’s take a look at every team that the blue-chip ratio has determined can win it all.
Auburn
Blue-Chip Percentage: 51%
The Tigers are fresh off firing Bryan Harsin after what was a complicated relationship between the two parties. Hugh Freeze has taken over as head coach and is looking to guide this team in the right direction.
USC
Blue-Chip Percentage: 52%
Arguably one of the most disliked teams in recent memory, the Trojans led by former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley and Heisman winner Caleb Williams could have made the playoff last year. Well, if their defense didn’t blow multiple double-digit leads that is. The Pac-12 will be ultra-competitive in 2023, and it will likely come down to the defense not blowing leads.
Michigan
Blue-Chip Percentage: 54%
The Wolverines have exorcised their losing to Ohio State demons; they have won the last two meetings en route to making the playoff two years straight. Unfortunately for them they were blown out in Year 1 and were upset by a TCU team that had a chance to disrupt the blue-chip method all together and be an anomaly.
Penn State
Blue-Chip Percentage: 55%
Penn State has consistently been on the brink of competing to be the best team in the Big Ten, but has not yet overthrown Michigan or Ohio State. They have Drew Allar at quarterback, who by all accounts could be one of their best signal-callers in program history if he lives up to the hype.
Miami
Blue-Chip Percentage: 61%
Another team on this list that is fresh off a sub .500 season, Mario Cristobal is looking to turn things around at his alma mater after going 5-7 in Year 1. The Hurricanes struggled in just about every aspect of the game and had many Hurricanes fans already frustrated.
Florida
Blue-Chip Percentage: 64%
Despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the country, the Gators finished below the .500 mark just like their in-state counterpart, Miami. With a murky situation at quarterback led by former Wisconsin quarterback, it might be another down year in Gainesville.
Notre Dame
Blue-Chip Percentage: 65%
With the Irish believing they were just a quarterback away from contending last season, they went out and signed one of the most experienced players in college football, Sam Hartman. Whether that will be enough is to be seen, but Notre Dame fans are confident they can win their first title since 1988.
Oregon
Blue-Chip Percentage: 67%
Oregon was one of the hottest teams in the country at one point last season, but an early loss to Georgia and a couple of slip ups in Pac-12 play sealed their fate. With Bo Nix returning, Dan Manning is hoping that his squad can finally win a playoff game and a championship.
Oklahoma
Blue-Chip Percentage: 70%
Another program that finished on the wrong end of .500. On the bright side for the Sooners, they made a bowl game. They need an improved defense and a healthy Dillon Gabriel to make sure they don’t have a repeat of last season.
Texas
Blue-Chip Percentage: 70%
The Longhorns have never had issues acquiring talent, but they have had issues maximizing that talent. 2023 is widely viewed as their year, and with an improved Quinn Ewers at quarterback that could be the case.
LSU
Blue-Chip Percentage: 71%
LSU was a team that many doubted early in the season a year ago, but clearly Brian Kelly knows what he’s doing down in Baton Rouge. With Jayden Daniels returning, the Tigers could definitely make a push.
Clemson
Blue-Chip Percentage: 72%
Clemson didn’t have the quarterback play it needed a year ago to return to the playoff. With Cade Klubnik going into his second year, there should be some confidence around the program that he can pick up where Trevor Lawrence left off.
Texas A&M
Blue-Chip Percentage: 73%
Jimbo Fisher hasn’t had any issues attracting talent to College Station, but keeping it on the field or getting the best out of it is another discussion. The Aggies assembled the best class ever, and by season’s end lost a chunk of them to the portal. Fisher could very well be on the hot seat. Their lone glimmer of hope is Connor Weigman at quarterback.
Georgia
Blue-Chip Percentage: 77%
Georgia has won the past two titles and lost substantial talent to the NFL. They don’t replace talent, they reload. Kirby Smart is creating a juggernaut in Athens, and we will see if they are in the midst of a dynasty.
Ohio State
Blue-Chip Percentage: 85%
The Buckeyes have made playoff appearances recently, but have not been able to win the title since they won the first edition of the College Football Playoff. They lost CJ Stroud at quarterback, but they have a couple of five-stars waiting in the wings who get to throw to Marvin Harrison Jr., who is the best player at the college level.
Alabama
Blue-Chip Percentage: 90%
The Bryce Young era is over, which is a relief for defenses. However, Nick Saban appears to want to return to a more physical style of play that helped him dominate throughout the years. They also are the first team since the blue-chip ratio has been tracked to reach the 90% mark. Talk about reloading, the Crimson Tide have talent all over the place. Their biggest question is at quarterback.
