10 potential twists that could create chaos in 2023 NFL draft's first round
After months of NFL draft analysis, perhaps only one thing can be widely agreed upon before the event begins Thursday night: No one truly knows what anyone else is doing.
Uncertainty is inherent to the draft, as teams tend to remain tight-lipped about their intentions. Determining the course of the draft is always exceedingly difficult, as one unexpected move near the top of the order can change the outlook for all the subsequent teams and their selections.
This year's pre-draft intel, however, has an even more tenuous feel amid a lack of consensus about the top prospects and how teams might view them.
"This is the most uncertain it has been, in my opinion," Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said of this year's draft.
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So with less than 24 hours left until Roger Goodell calls out the first name in Kansas City, Missouri, let's spotlight 10 potential twists in the draft and examine the fallout:
Anyone but Bryce Young is No. 1 pick
Call this due diligence, as this is perhaps the least likely possibility of all the outlandish potential outcomes on draft night. All signs point to the Carolina Panthers using the top selection on Young, the Alabama quarterback and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama.
On Tuesday, Panthers coach Frank Reich said the organization had reached a "consensus" on the decision after he met with general manager Scott Fitterer to discuss the selection. While Reich has not revealed the choice, Young has been the clear front-runner for some time. Even after Panthers brass held visits with the other top signal-callers in Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida's Anthony Richardson and attended their pro days, it would be a downright shock if any of them had their name called to kick off Thursday night's festivities. Now let's get to the actual drama.
Tyree Wilson is taken ahead of Will Anderson at No. 2
A week ago, this entry might have been centered on the Houston Texans bypassing a quarterback. Now, that once-farfetched scenario appears to be the prevailing wisdom for the No. 2 pick.
This might not prompt the chain reaction that some of the other moves on this list would. But if the Texans do opt to go the defensive route with the first of their two picks in the top 12, it would still be startling to see them take Wilson, the Texas Tech product, ahead of Anderson, Alabama's first-ever two-time unanimous All-American and a prolific pass rusher considered by many to be the premier defender in the class. Of course, the 6-6, 271-pound Wilson offers a different kind of physical presence at defensive end, one who might be more fit for setting the edge and pushing the pocket than his 6-3, 254-pound counterpart. But there are substantial questions about whether he can achieve the same level of pass-rush prowess that Anderson has, as Wilson had fewer sacks in four years (17) than the former Crimson Tide standout did in 2021 alone (17 ½).
No matter the final choice, this will prove to be a defining decision for GM Nick Caserio as DeMeco Ryans launches his head-coaching career.
Cardinals trade out of No. 3
Arizona could take either Anderson or Wilson with its initial selection and be satisfied that a talent-starved front seven had been meaningfully upgraded. For the new regime of general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon, however, maximizing draft assets should be the priority for a roster that looks to be one of the league's most decrepit.
The opportunity to land any quarterback outside of Young would seemingly be alluring trade bait if Houston doesn't take a signal-caller at No. 2, but hammering out a deal might not be so simple. In the last four drafts, only two trades involving a top-10 pick have been engineered once the first round had begun — and each one involved the No. 10 overall selection. Without a horde of known buyers in the quarterback market, it's no sure thing that the Cardinals will fetch the kind of offer that would convince them to move back.
All it would take, however, would be one team to pony up something to Arizona's liking, and the draft would then be turned on its head. Any team jumping ahead of Indianapolis for a signal-caller would position quarterbacks to be three of the top four picks ... or a franchise looking for an elite pass rusher could make a play for Anderson or Wilson.
A surprise team in top 10 pounces on a QB
The Panthers and Indianapolis Colts appear to be the only teams truly locked in on taking a quarterback with their first pick. Beyond that, there are a number of potential X-factors for whichever of the top passers remain after the first four.
The Seattle Seahawks (No. 5), Detroit Lions (No. 6) and Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7) all seem at least somewhat committed to their established veteran starters, but none are locked into deals that would make taking a young signal-caller prohibitive for their respective teams. The Falcons have stood by Desmond Ridder as their expected starter, but could their outlook shift if Stroud is unexpectedly available?
Of those teams, the Seahawks size up as perhaps the most likely candidate to actually make a move, as the team made a show of hitting all four top quarterbacks' pro days. Actually pulling the trigger is another matter, however, and it might be difficult for Pete Carroll to ignore the opportunity to add a top-tier defensive talent to a unit that has not ranked better than 22nd since 2019 in total yards allowed.
Will Levis or Anthony Richardson land in top five ...
Both of the former SEC quarterbacks are immensely physically gifted with upper-echelon arm strength and excellent mobility (more so for Richardson, who dazzled at the combine with his 4.43-second 40-yard dash). Good luck, however, trying to pin down a perfect fit for either one. Levis has been linked to the Colts for some time, and Richardson still could be in play there as well. And if either one has a particularly high mark from a team further back in the order, there could be sufficient motivation for a trade with either the Cardinals or Seahawks.
... or Levis and/or Richardson fall into the teens
In the flip side to the aforementioned scenario, it's difficult to establish an exact floor in the first round for either passer. Maybe teams like the Tennessee Titans (No. 11), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 19) or Minnesota Vikings (No. 23) would be more compelled to scoop up a potential long-term solution behind center if they didn't need to orchestrate a trade up the board to do so. And the trio of teams with two first-round picks — the Texans, Lions and Seahawks — might be intrigued if an option falls into their lap. Still, if either Levis or Richardson makes it past 12, an awkward and extended wait could be ahead.
Jalen Carter slides
In the wake of Carter pleading no contest to charges of misdemeanor charges of racing and reckless driving in connection with the crash that killed Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy, agent Drew Rosenhaus maintained he was "confident" that his client would still be a top-10 draft pick.
Carter has long been considered one of this class' elite talents, and he has been widely projected to be the Seahawks' pick at No. 5. If Seattle passes, a guessing game will ensue. The Lions have spoken positively about their interaction with the Georgia star, saying they "felt better about him" after he visited the team.
The team to watch, however, might be the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 10. The defending NFC champions have a distinct need for a high-impact interior defensive lineman, and the roster already features two of Carter's former teammates in defensive tackle Jordan Davis and linebacker Nakobe Dean. The Eagles could represent Carter's floor, and they might even be compelled to swing a trade up to ensure they can secure him if he slides.
MORE: Five NFL draft prospects who could slide in (or out of) first round
Bijan Robinson in top 10
Widely hailed as the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, Robinson has the chance to become the first top-10 selection at the position since the New York Giants selected the franchise ball-carrier at No. 2 in 2018. His case should prove to be a fascinating referendum on a position that has seen its market deflate significantly in recent years.
Robinson's range for being selected likely opens at No. 8 with the Falcons, who could be allured by the dynamic all-purpose talent despite the return of 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier. Maybe Robinson is a special enough talent for Howie Roseman to consider making him the Eagles' first Round 1 running back since Keith Byars in 1986.
If Robinson makes it past that point, though, there still should be plenty of intrigue on his landing spot. Both the Washington Commanders (No. 16) and Lions (No. 18) could make sense given the teams' commitment to the ground game.
Hendon Hooker cracks first round
The recent history of quarterbacks who generate buzz in the final days before the draft as potential first-rounders is pretty spotty, so proceed with caution. Still, it's worth noting that Hooker is likely much closer to landing somewhere where the top four quarterbacks will than the next tier of players at the position, who might not wind up being selected until well into Day 2.
At 6-3 and 217 pounds, the Tennessee product combines polished footwork in the pocket with impressive mobility and a stellar deep ball. Given that he is recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in November and is still developing his processing after playing in an offense that provided him easy reads, Hooker might be a long-term bet for a franchise that can exhibit some patience. But if he does crack the first round — either with a team like the Vikings or another group that trades up into the final few slots — he could potentially put an incumbent starter on notice.
Surprise names in back half of first round
There are always more first-round slots than consensus Day 1 players. This year in particular, it seems more likely than not that at least a few names that had not been fixtures of mock drafts will start popping up somewhere in the 20s.
A few of the possibilities beyond Hooker include Oklahoma offensive tackle Anton Harrison, Northwestern defensive lineman Aditomiwa Adebawore and Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith. All of those are fringe first-rounders, though, so keep an eye out for anyone who prompts widespread surprise, much as the New England Patriots did last year by taking off-the-radar offensive lineman Cole Strange.
Follow USA TODAY Sports' Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL draft 2023 twists: Falls for Will Levis, Anthony Richardson?
