10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 1 Saturday
10 best predictions for the first big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for Week 1’s Saturday games?
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Seriously, what more could you have possibly wanted out of the first batch of games?
This is done before the Friday slate, so it all might change in a snap, but from Central Michigan’s monster cover comeback against Oklahoma State, a late stop by Nevada against New Mexico State, and thriller after thriller for the investment community, this has been a blast so far.
But now the fun is over.
We’ve had a few laughs, enjoyed the fine banter, had a few drinks, and now it’s time to get serious. It’s the first big Saturday of the college football season, and with that are the 10 best picks against the spread – with a few more thrown into the mix for giggles.
There’s a theme for the first five picks – do we believe in this thing or not?
After all the blather and hype and talk this offseason, do I really believe in these teams, or not? You’ll see what I’m talking about starting with …
Results So Far: 8-1-1
Click on each game for the preview
10. Rice at USC
LINE USC -32.5
ATS PICK USC
It’s not possible to go more unabashed fanboy than I did over USC these past seven months.
The unbelievable array of talent brought in by Lincoln Riley might have been the most underappreciated and underanalyzed big thing that happened this offseason – seriously, it’s as if no one quite realizes the all-star two-deep USC now has.
Do I believe in this USC thing or not? I’ve totally bought in, even though giving away 32.5 to a potted plant would scare me.
In the grand opening. I want the show, and I’m going to get the show.
9. NC State at East Carolina
LINE NC State -11.5
ATS PICK NC State
I’m very well aware that East Carolina is one of those programs that rises up at home once in a while and screws things up for the big name team.
QB Holton Ahlers has been around for forever, the Pirate team that went bowling last year is better this season, and …
I believe in NC State.
I can’t very well go around screaming that Clemson is the star of the ACC – more on that in a moment – NC State is 2, and everyone else gets lumped together if I don’t go with the Pack -11.5 now.
If you really think this defense is that good, and you should, assume the season starts strong, even on the road, with a great performance. Speaking of which …
8. Houston at UTSA
LINE Houston -4.5
ATS PICK Houston
Blah, blah, blah – Houston is going to go to the New Year’s Six, it might be this year’s Cincinnati, it’s going to blow up before going to the Big 12, and on and on and on.
I couldn’t have talked up Houston any more than I did this whole offseason.
UTSA is loaded with experience and talent – even without star RB Sincere McCormick – it’s a home game, and the place should have the energy to get both sides fired up.
But it”s only 4.5 points – I had better believe at that line.
Any Group of Five program that can even think about being this year’s big thing shouldn’t have a problem taking down the Roadrunners – as good as they are – by at least a touchdown without breathing hard.
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NFL Expert Picks, Predictions, Lines: Week 1
7. Notre Dame at Ohio State
LINE Ohio State -17
ATS PICK Notre Dame
Oh Notre Dame. That Little Engine That Could program travels to Columbus to collect its paycheck, catch a beating, and leave.
It’ll be a miracle if the team even gets off the bus, right?
No, I don’t deep down somewhere in my soul believe that the Irish will pull this off – not like I sort of do when it comes to the underdog with the next pick – but I do think it’s solid enough in all phases to hold up and make this a fight.
The Buckeyes will win, but I’m having a hard time fully believing it’ll be a total wipeout – the Irish lines are too good and the secondary too solid – until it happens.
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College Football Schedule, Predictions, Game Previews, Lines, TV: Week 1 Saturday
6. Georgia vs Oregon
LINE Georgia -17
ATS PICK Oregon
As I’ve said time and again over these last few weeks, if Georgia comes out and rolls 44-2, I’ll eat it. Obviously, a rocking win by the defending national champs would hardly be shocking. But …
Do I believe that Oregon has the best linebacking corps in the country? It’s at least close.
Do I believe the lines are good enough to hold up, and Stetson Bennett has a three-interception game inside of him just waiting to come out? Yeah, and maybe.
Do I like that Oregon is a 17-point underdog, even though it might just be the best team in the Pac-12? Love it.
(BTW, I can’t fully dive in on this, but Oregon +625 on the money line in some places?! Just sayin’ … )
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Middle Tennessee at James Madison and Arizona at San Diego State
5. Middle Tennessee at James Madison and Arizona at San Diego State
LINE James Madison -6, San Diego State -6.5
ATS PICKS James Madison and San Diego State
I’m combining the two storyline games of the day.
James Madison goes from being a dominant force in the FCS world to hosting Middle Tennessee at home to kick off life in the Sun Belt.
Besides the Blue Raiders needing to reboot a bit in a few spots, and even with James Madison still trying to get everything together depth-wise to handle the rigors of what this all is, 1) the home team here is better, and 2) the place should be a blast with all the energy of the first game in the big leagues.
That same sort of emotion thing should work for San Diego State, too.
It’s opening its snazzy new Snapdragon Stadium – complete with cushy chairs for everyone in the state of the art facility – and it’s hosting an Arizona team that’s going to be better this season, but shouldn’t be a big problem quite yet.
San Diego State is the stronger team giving up less than a touchdown, the defense should be fantastic – give some thought to the under on the 47.5 – and again with the crowd and energy, go with the narrative of the big opening moment.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: Texas State at Nevada
4. Texas State at Nevada
LINES Nevada -1
ATS PICK Nevada
What, you didn’t dig the way Nevada had to hang on for dear life in Week 0 against a New Mexico State team that just got obliterated by Minnesota?
This is a gutted Wolf Pack squad with former head coach Jay Norvell leaving this offseason and taking the offense, a slew of key players, and the team’s mojo with him to Colorado State.
What, you didn’t dig the 78 passing yards and 3.4 yards per attempt by Nevada against the Aggies? You’re afraid Texas State might have the same success defensively?
Texas State has been a weird team lately in early games.
If gave Baylor fits in a 29-20 loss last year, pushed SMU in 2020, and should’ve beaten Boston College a few weeks later. That shouldn’t matter when it comes to this season, the lack of a run defense and not enough downfield passing upside is a concern.
I like that it’s in Reno. I like that Nevada got to work out the kinks against New Mexico State. I love the potential of the running game taking over.
The combination of Toa Tau and Devonte Lee is good enough to take control right away and have the ball for about 35 minutes – Texas State won’t care about time of possession.
This went from 10.5 when it opened to just -1 in most places.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Miami University at Kentucky
3. Miami University at Kentucky
LINE Kentucky -17
ATS PICK Kentucky
Hey MAC, how you livin’?
Seriously, peace and love to all of you who had Oklahoma State and now have to live with that monster Central Michigan ATS comeback in a brutal defensive performance.
Akron needed everything in the bag to get by St. Francis. Ball State wasn’t anything more than a speed bump in a 59-10 loss to Tennessee, and Northern Illinois struggled way, way, way too much in.a 34-27 win over Eastern Illinois.
Yeah, Toledo beat LIU 37-0. The spread was 47.5.
So you’ll forgive me if I’m not all that jacked about the idea of going with Miami University.
Kentucky doesn’t have star RB Chris Rodriguez, and the RedHawks might just be the best team in the MAC if everything breaks right.
I don’t care. I don’t care that UK beat a miserable Central Michigan by just 15 to start the 2018 season. I don’t care that it was a fight to get by Southern Miss to start 2017. I don’t care that the program struggled in opener after opener until it rim-rocked ULM 45-10 last season.
Love the Kentucky defense, love the style against what MU does, love the SEC team at home against a MAC team only giving away 17 points.
While I’m deep into my anti-MACite stance …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Bowling Green at UCLA
2. Bowling Green at UCLA
LINE UCLA -23
ATS PICK UCLA
Again, color me totally freaked about the MAC at this point. If you weren’t selling on that conference before, you should be now based on how the first several games went for the league.
And I sure as shoot don’t believe that Bowling Green is about to take all of its experience and upside as one of those out-of-the-blue teams to rise up in the conference race.
Yeah, it’s full of veterans, but it also couldn’t stop the run at all last year, the year before, or for a very, very long time before that.
The offense was 117th in the nation last year, the defense couldn’t come up with a third down stop, and … and …
It didn’t get totally destroyed in every game of a 4-8 season.
On the contrary, it got run over by Minnesota and managed to pull off a 14-10 win anyway.
The betting public couldn’t have hammered this line faster. It started out as UCLA -35, and plummeted down fast to -23.
That’s about right.
Bowling Green won’t get wiped off the map, but UCLA has the running game to control this. In the early afternoon of a hot LA, around 38ish to 10ish should be right, with the better chance being on the Bruins rolling up well over 40 with an unstoppable offensive performance.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Clemson at Georgia Tech
1. Clemson at Georgia Tech, Monday, Sept. 5
LINE Clemson -22
ATS PICK Clemson
And we close out this gimmicky Do You Believe In This Or Not? article with one of the biggest of the bunch.
All offseason I’ve made sure to correct every radio and podcast host – always in a polite way with no pretentiousness whatsoever – that Clemson has to be included with Alabama and Ohio State in the automatic picks for the College Football Playoff.
I just can’t get past it.
Clemson got hit with injuries to the defensive front, the offense did NOTHING until the second half of the season, and it still won ten games with all three losses – Georgia, Pitt, and NC State – very, very close to going the other way.
Now the defensive front is the best in college football, the offense is going to be better – it has to be – and the schedule works out.
And then there’s the dopey “feel” aspect to this game.
This feels like one of those performance art games with all of us about to jump on the DJ Uiagalelei train again.
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College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 1 Saturday
Clemson is going to want to make a statement. It’s going to want to prove a point after struggling in a 14-8 win over Georgia Tech last year. It’s going to want to impress on Monday night in front of the world.
What happened on the Labor Day game last year? Ole Miss blasted Louisville 43-24.
2020? BYU 55, Navy 3.
2019? Notre Dame 35, Louisville 17. 2018? Virginia Tech 24, Florida State 3.
You have to go back to the wild 2017 double-overtime Tennessee win over Georgia Tech 42-41 to find a good Monday night game to start the season. For whatever reason, these games are usually horrible.
Georgia Tech isn’t horrible this year. It should be better, and it has a few playmakers, and it doesn’t matter.
Clemson is about to show the world that it really is time to believe again.
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