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Virginia Tech Hokies basketball preview: UMBC

tim sullivan, editor

Virginia Tech's tour of the dregs of the country's worst teams finally reaches its conclusion tonight, with the final non-conference game in Cassell Coliseum.

Will the UMBC Retrievers be able to put up a better fight than the other teams VT has faced outside the country's top 200 teams?

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The essentials

Opponent: Maryland-Baltimore County (9-3, 0-0 America East)

Time, Location: 7:00 p.m. EDT, Cassell Coliseum

Event: Non-conference

Television: ESPN3 (ACC Network Extra)

The Retrievers

Although their rankings in the advanced stats aren't particularly impressive, UMBC's record is: at 9-3 entering the final non-conference game, they'll likely put together a winning record this year, and a bit of luck in America East could see them contend for an NCAA Tournament bid.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

The advanced stats are bad for a reason. Four of the nine wins come against teams ranked worse than 300th according to Kenpom, and another was over Division III Messiah University. Their three losses were to three of the best four teams they've played, and two of those Ls have come on the road. Against the best squad they'll see all season (by about three standard deviations), the prognosis ain't great.

UMBC's top two players in minutes are 5-8(!) guard K.J. Maura - a lethal shooter from outside and a pest when opponents have the ball, he lives up (more like down am I right) to the stereotypes of a mighty mite - and 6-2 Jairus Lyles. Lyles is a mediocre-plus shooter, but excels at holding onto the ball getting to the hoop and drawing contact, even though he misses far too many of the free throws for a player of that style.

There's a bit of size on the roster, and when 6-10 center Nolan Gerrity is on the floor, the Retrievers can actually play like a pretty big team, sliding 6-8 Will Darley to the power forward spot and 6-6 Joe Sherburne to small forward. Of course, against a really good small-ball team like Virginia Tech (especially given that the Hokies can play small-ball while still trotting out 6-10 center Khadim Sy), that may not be the best option. Sherburne is one of the country's most efficient offensive players, the No. 8 player nationally in three-point percentage while still ranking top-500 in two-point percentage.

Shut down Sherburne, and you can feel pretty confident that it would take a special day from multiple other Retrievers if they're going to have a shot to beat you. Meanwhile, UMBC's defensive is one of the country's worst, with opponents tending to shot the lights out, not turn the ball over, and rebound plenty of their own misses.

The Hokies

Playing Khadim Sy and Zach Leday at the same time seemed an obvious tactic when Buzz Williams finally did it last week. Leday has come off the bench all year, and having that playing time come at the four-spot makes him a different type of matchup, and one that an elite center is not going to erase. VT didn't need to use that lineup against Charleston Southern, and won't against UMBC. However, they probably will against Duke, so getting comfortable with it is a solid idea.

Meanwhile, the Hokies have cleaned up turnover issues, and shot selection that sometimes looks iffy has suddenly started to turn into a lot of "no no no YES" moments in mid-range territory, especially from Chris Clarke, who is on a ridiculous hot streak over the past month.

Maintaining solid form from the likes of Clarke (and point guard Justin Robinson, along with the rotating cast of characters at the 2- and 3-spots outside of Clarke) while experimenting with more big lineups playing Sy and Leday alongside each other is the priority here. Basically every ACC team is going to be bigger than the Hokies, so being able to play their game is something to adjust to, while keeping the elements in place that have allowed VT to win with a bit of small-ball, as well.

Overall

Kenpom predicts an 18-point win. Recent games have been an interesting test of how late-game scoring won't affect the final outcome, but does impact how good those predictions look. The Hokies played a poor game for about 25 minutes against Charleston Southern, but poured it on in the end and exceeded the projected performance in a game that was closer than the final score.

With a bit of experimenting to do tonight, a similar outcome will result. VT will struggle early (or late), but dominate the rest of the game and come in right near the 86-68 margin predicted by the advanced stats.