Tip Drill: Make it a September to Remember

Everyone has the same goal in fantasy football — a playoff berth, maybe a coveted bye week when those playoffs start. Eventually, a championship. A trophy, maybe some cash winnings. A parade, a winner’s hat, a commemorative DVD. Groupies.

The first step towards all of those lovely things is a quick start. My credo in most fantasy matters is to Play For Today, and it’s especially true for the fake football schedule. We want to quickly earn and enjoy a position of leverage; we want to make later decisions because we want to, not because we have to.

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Here are some tips to keep in mind as we attack that quick September start. Understand these are general rules and if your league has unusual or specific guidelines, you’ll have to season to taste. And obviously every room’s flow and playing habits are different; you know those better than anyone else can.

Many of these pointers will apply all season, but have particular appeal in the early part of the year.

— For the most part, ignore bye weeks

There are a few exceptions to this rule, of course. If I’m trying to break a tie between two similar players, I might go down to the bye week in rare circumstances. At that point, I’d be looking at two factors: do these players have byes that conflict with the rest of my roster, and which bye week comes later? When in doubt, a later bye week is preferred to an early bye week.

A common mistake I see fantasy owners annually make is the idea of planning months in advance. A neophyte owner will note their stud quarterback doesn’t play in Week 9, so they feel they need to select a replacement QB for that occasion — over two months before that date comes about. Let’s not lose sight of how quickly the NFL reshuffles, and how much turnover your roster and attitudes will have as the season meanders along. We can worry about November down the road. Let’s play the position in front of us.

— Any point-spread favorite is a potential streaming defense

This tip applies to any point in the season, but I like to mention it now because it’s especially sneaky in the early weeks of the year. There’s a lot of mystery shrouded over the kicker and defense positions in fantasy football, but they’re not as hard to project as many believe. If you can simply identify a meaty point-spread favorite from the fresh schedule, you’re on your way to landing a potential PK or DST for streaming purposes.

Leverage is a good thing in real football, too. We want our defense and special teams to be playing from a lead, whenever possible.

I’ve already grabbed some Philadelphia DST shares for Week 1. The Eagles are home favorites (about 5.5 or 6 points) over the Browns and their suspect QB, Robert Griffin III. I don’t expect to hold the Eagles past this opening assignment, but that’s fine. In most leagues, you can easily stream defenses in the current week; in some others, you only have to plan ahead by a week or so.

If I’m doing a draft in the final week of the year, I’ll go ahead and select my defense and kicker now. I understand the idea of passing these fringe positions with mid-summer drafts — you want as many lottery tickets as possible — but with most important players sitting out the final preseason games, I’d rather get in line with a defense and kicker now. Most key players will be in bubble wrap until the regular season begins.

If you insist on carrying a brand-name kicker or defense, consider a later bye week if possible. That way you won’t be forced to carry multiple kickers or defenses until later in the season, when your league standing has more definition. I don’t want to muck up my flexibility in the early weeks, when a fluid roster spot has a little more value to me.

— Be aggressive with early FAAB and waiver priority

The first point to grasp: any September swap you make from the back of your roster is a much more informed choice than roster maintenance before the season. September moves have the benefit of actual game action, of the teams giving us seamless clues to how they feel about personnel. In the summer, we can make educated guesses and try to connect the dots; come the actual season, we’ll have a much clearer picture.

With that in mind, don’t fall in love with the players on your bench, especially the last man or two. Don’t let the Paradox of Choice paralyze you. Roster swaps based on game action and in-season clues will give you a better hit rate than the screened speculations of August.

— When a major injury hits, stay grounded in reality

Injury Optimism is a real problem in fantasy sports, especially fantasy football. It’s human nature to want to believe the best-case scenario. The teams and especially the players tend to be unfailingly positive when a rehab timetable is thrown about.

And if you know anything about pro sports, you recognize how often these timetables are nothing more than misleading rhetoric or frivolous wish-casting. And even when our handicapped hero comes back to action, it doesn’t mean we can use him immediately. Will his normal usage return immediately? Will it take a while for full sharpness to come back?

When one of my major players falls into an injury ditch, I’m likely to shop him in trade, see if I can find someone more optimistic about the return than I am. I can’t promise this will always be a profitable angle, but it’s worked nicely for me over two decades of playing. It’s not that hard to get someone drunk (or at least a little tipsy) on Injury Optimism. Offer them a safe ride home.

— Once the byes hit, do a league-wide roster audit

The NFL gave us an unconventional set of bye weeks for the 2016 season. The holiday weeks range in number (between two and six teams), and they cover more ground than usual. Here’s the rundown:

• Week 4: Packers, Eagles

• Week 5: Jags, Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks

• Week 6: Vikings, Bucs

• Week 7: Panthers, Cowboys

• Week 8: Ravens, Rams, Dolphins, Giants, Steelers, Niners

• Week 9: Cardinals, Bears, Bengals, Texans, Patriots, Washington

• Week 10: Bills, Lions, Colts, Raiders

• Week 11: Falcons, Broncos, Jets, Chargers

• Week 12: Everybody plays

• Week 13: Browns, Titans

It’s always a good idea to be analyzing the shape of your league, but I really like to kick it into gear when the byes start. The first order of business: see who’s hurt by the current teams resting. Maybe a Packers-heavy roster will be especially crippled in Week 4, say.

[We talked Fantasy Football on the Grandstanding Podcast]

Trading can be difficult in the early weeks, when most teams have healthy rosters and the majority of owners are still married to wishful thoughts. A poor start and pending bye-week pothole can do wonders for loosening trade negotiations. Ideally, we want to race out to a quick start, then be ready to pounce on trade avenues that open up from suddenly-desperate (or frustrated) opponents.

We’ll talk more about this theme when the byes come about.

— The more competitive your league is, the more Play for Today applies

And the less competitive your league is, the more I’ll sign off on moves that look ahead significantly. I don’t think much elaboration is needed on this point. Every league is different.

That’s enough to get you started on a September to Remember. Share your fast-start tips and rules in the comments. If you want to run them directly by me, I’m on Twitter (@scott_pianowski) and on Facebook (@YahooPianow).