Time to Buy a Rabbit
For the first time this season, the closer tiers remained consistent. A few players were shuffled around within the same tiers, but nobody jumped from one to another. The top 24 guys have solid job security and provide plenty of value to fantasy owners. A few guys are on shaky ground as we await trade deadline fall out. Closers like Jason Grilli, Tyler Clippard, and Francisco Rodriguez could be traded into a setup role. Jonathan Papelbon is also likely to be dealt, but nobody would acquire the vocal reliever for a non-closing job.
Moving along to stolen bases, the league is up to 1,257 thefts in 1,801 attempts. Billy Hamilton still leads the league with 40 stolen bases. He also snatched seven bags in the last week – the most in the league. Cesar Hernandez (six), Jose Altuve (four), and Charlie Blackmon (four) also had good weeks on the bases. Dee Gordon is still second with 26 steals. He's been caught 11 times.
Tier 1: Elite (5)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
It was a typical week for Chapman. He threw three innings, struck out six, and recorded just one save. The Reds have handed Chapman only 16 save opportunities. Even the lowly Phillies have given Jonathan Papelbon 14 opportunities.
Jansen allowed his second run of the season and walked his first batter. He threw three innings with five strikeouts and two saves. His 0.54 BB/9 represents a career best. We should expect some modest regression.
Robertson has had an odd season. With 12.40 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9, there's no doubt he's a top 10 reliever. However, he's also blown four saves in 20 opportunities. He didn't blow one in the last week, but he came awfully close. He allowed two runs on three hits and two walks last Thursday. He still got the save. He was touched up for two more hits in his next appearance, but nobody scored. The last 40 days haven't been great for Robertson. Perhaps his owner is willing to consider a trade.
Betances saved two games without any fuss. The Yankees have moved Adam Warren back to the bullpen. He's a good candidate for holds. Until Andrew Miller returns, Warren is probably the second string closer. Speaking of Miller, he's expected to throw off a mound sometime this week.
Kimbrel is on a good run. Over the last 31 days, he has a 0.68 ERA with 14.18 K/9 and 6.08 BB/9. The walk rate is concerning, but he's recorded a strikeout in all 14 outings. Over the last week, he pitched twice with four strikeouts and two walks.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (5)
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Britton doesn't have elite strikeout rates. His 10.16 K/9 is still desirable, especially when combined with his 1.87 BB/9. His 1.87 ERA is supported by a 1.84 FIP and 1.82 xFIP. In short, he's luck neutral. His pitching style relies on weakly hit ground balls. Occasionally, he'll blow a save when a few hits squirt through in the same outing.
Boxberger appears to have reclaimed the closer role. He's a little less reliable than the closers listed above him. Between fly ball tendencies, a high home run rate, and 4.11 BB/9, there are a few ways he could blow a save. However, a robust 12.33 K/9 ensures that he has fantasy value. He had a solid week with three innings pitched, one save, two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts.
The Cardinals have produced a ton of save opportunities. Rosenthal is among the league leaders with 23 saves. His 0.51 ERA is well below his 2.32 FIP and 3.26 xFIP. We should expect some regression over the rest of the season. Strangely, his strikeout rate is down to 9.68 K/9. I think it will rebound to around 11.00 K/9.
Holland has looked a little sharper in recent outings. His velocity is still down from his career norms. I want to see a couple more weeks of elevated strikeouts and few walks. He threw 1.2 innings over the last week with three strikeouts.
The Mets aren't particularly careful with Familia. After pitching on Thursday and Friday, he threw two innings on Saturday. Nothing untoward happened, but he's thrown more than one inning in six of his last 12 outings. Multi-inning appearances mean he'll be unavailable more often than the typical closer. If you're desperate for saves, try handcuffing Bobby Parnell. I still think Parnell will immolate in spectacular fashion, but he should get a few save opportunities in the process.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (10)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Papelbon and Perkins had low stress weeks. They combined for three saves in three appearances. Allen didn't receive a save opportunity, but he did throw three times. He struck out seven without allowing a hit or a walk. He'll be bumped up to Tier 2 if he has another good week.
Like Allen, Melancon is on the cusp of being moved up to the next tier. The key change is a sudden increase in his strikeout rate that coincides with a modest bump in velocity. He's not quite back to his normal 93 mph heater, but he's close. So long as he's striking out a batter per inning, there's no need to worry.
Storen has surprised me this season. A 2.10 ERA with 10.80 K/9 and 1.80 BB/9 is step up from his typical numbers. His two fastballs and slider all have elite whiff rates. He picked up two saves, but he also blew a save. He failed to strike out a batter in three appearances.
The Braves are starting to fall out of the playoff race. With a shallow roster lacking star talent, a sudden charge up the standings seems unlikely. As such, Jason Grilli (and Jim Johnson) could soon be on the trade block. The righty took a loss this week and also saved a game. If he's dealt, he'll probably serve as a setup man for his new team. The one exception might be the Blue Jays. They could use a late game veteran to lock down the ninth.
Uehara pitched four times, faced one batter more than the minimum, and notched four saves. When he ran into trouble last season, it was via the long ball. He hasn't allowed a home run since May 19.
The Angels have called upon Street in four consecutive games. If you're in a daily moves league, grab Scott Downs for this evening. Street converted three of four saves. He blew the other via solo home run.
The Marlins suddenly have one of the best bullpen duos in baseball. I'd feel a lot better about Ramos if not for the presence of Carter Capps. He's arguably been the best reliever in baseball since his call up. Former closer Steve Cishek is also hanging around. Even though Ramos has been excellent with 11.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, and a 1.26 ERA, any sort of multi-outing slump could lead to a role change.
Rodriguez has pitched three days in a row. Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress could pinch pitch tonight if Kyle Lohse can hand the club another save opportunity. K-Rod saved three, but he also allowed two runs via home run in a non-save situation.
Tier 4: Questions (5)
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics
This was a quiet tier. Everybody but Soria appeared twice without much muss or fuss. Only Tolleson allowed a run, and he still recorded a save in that game. Tolleson has slowed down considerably in recent weeks (five strikeouts over his last 13 outings).
Soria requires close attention these days. From June 5 through June 22, he allowed six home runs in six outings. He's since pitched four times without allowing a run. He also added seven strikeouts, a win, and a save.
Tier 5: Roller Coasters (5)
Carson Smith, Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Roberto Osuna, Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
Jason Motte, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs
John Axford, Colorado Rockies
Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson, Enrique Burgos, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rodney earned the Mariners only save of the last week. Supposedly, the job still belongs to Smith. The 25-year-old is a superior pitcher to Rodney, but manager Lloyd McClendon seems overly worried about his inexperience. Smith has a 1.45 ERA with 10.74 K/9 and 1.74 BB/9. His walk rate will probably increase, but he should remain an above average reliever. Rodney is...enigmatic. That's a nice way of calling him unreliable.
Sometimes I hate Joe Maddon. Motte isn't even a good reliever, let alone a viable closer. Somehow, he's getting the bulk of the saves opportunities for the Cubs. I think Maddon is trying to apply an old sabermetric concept – use your best relievers in the most important spots. There is no doubt that Rondon and Strop are better than Motte. So is Justin Grimm. The club is rumored to be exploring external options, and they also have Rafael Soriano under contract.
Axford blew his first save of the season in noisy fashion. The Diamondbacks walked off after a three hit, two walk, and three run rally. He's allowed five runs in his last four appearances (3.1 innings). Could this be the beginning of the inevitable meltdown? Boone Logan and LaTroy Hawkins are next in line.
The Blue Jays had just one save opportunity in the last week, and it went to Osuna. He threw 1.1 innings, allowed one hit, and struck out two. With 10.60 K/9, 2.52 BB/9 and a 2.02 ERA, he certainly seems like a viable closer.
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Injured
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Mejia is still on track to return around July 7th. That's when his suspension is over. Feliz hasn't pitched well during his rehab stint (7.36 ERA), but he's probably nearing a return. Don't expect him to push Tolleson aside anytime soon. Miller should throw a bullpen sometime this week.
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
Brett Cecil
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The Steals Department
Let's talk rabbits. With half the season behind us, any substantial stolen base deficit has to be solved by a prodigious runner. Hamilton often bats eighth or ninth for the Reds as the “second leadoff hitter.” Since he doesn't contribute to home runs, RBI, or average, his owner could consider him to be expendable. If you acquire him at a reasonable price, he has the ability to single-handedly push your team 40 steals up the standings. Just recognize that you'll lose points in other categories. Hamilton is a great add if you're among the worst in stolen bases. If you can't gain many points in steals, get a more well-rounded runner.
On the waiver wire, you can find Phillies utility man Cesar Hernandez. Filling in for Chase Utley, Hernandez saved his season line with a hot week. In six games, he hit .435/.480/.478 with four runs, an RBI, and six stolen bases. He's batting second in the lineup. Hernandez is a no-power contact hitter with decent plate discipline. The club would probably like to evaluate him more thoroughly this season, and it's also a good way to avoid Utley's vesting options. You've probably already missed his best week, but he does offer short term steals.
While owners probably should think about trading Hamilton, there is an irrational fear about dealing the best player in a particular category. Even when he's death to others. As such, I like Ben Revere as a poor man's alternative. Unlike Hamilton, Revere bats leadoff and hits for a high average. Even on the woeful Phillies, Revere is on an 85 run pace. Beware trade season, Revere could turn into a fourth outfielder at the trade deadline. It's a low risk. Unlike Hamilton, most owners are willing to swap Revere for a merely decent player.
