Three-Point Stance: Is regression on horizon for Robinson, Bortles?

Thanks to lopsided outcomes, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Blake Bortles emerged as textbook Garbage Time All-Stars. Each turned handsome profits for all who invested. However, considering Jacksonville’s rising defense and revamped run game, will the trio continue to flex their statistical might? Brad Evans and Scott Pianowski plant three-fingers into the ground and attack all things Jags.

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Allen Robinson was a break out sensation last year amassing 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. His resulting 224.0 fantasy points in standard leagues trailed only Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall among WRs. At his current 12.1 ADP (WR7), is the third-year weapon OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED?

Scott – That looks like the PROPER VALUE to me. Robinson’s lagging 40 time kept him from being a first-round pick in the 2014 draft class — it’s hard to believe the Jags took Marqise Lee over Robinson — but he’s proven to be capable in the pros, someone who plays faster than the stopwatch says (note that zesty 17.5 YPC last year). And with a 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame, Robinson is capable of winning in tight spaces, and around the goal line. If you get him in the second round, I applaud. And I’m fine to consider Robinson at the end of the first round, too.

Brad – OVERVALUED. Unquestionably, Robinson was one of the more profitable WRs in fantasy drafts last season. Largely overlooked until the middle rounds, his ascension, despite an unsightly 53.0 catch percentage (No. 87 at WR) and marginal 2.1 YAC (No. 25), had investors counting $100 bills come year’s end. Still, he is destined to decline this fall.

Among his 14 touchdowns 11 were snagged when the Jags were trailing. With a very talented, though inexperienced, defense behind him and Chris Ivory now in tow, game flow and situational play-calling may lead to a decrease in overall production. He should still churn out WR1-level numbers, but expect him to land somewhere in the WR10-WR12 range, making his WR7 ADP pricey. A ballpark projection of 85-1250-9 feels right.

Bortles (112.5 ADP, QB9) was an indisputable waiver wire hero last season totaling 37 touchdowns (35 pass, 2 rush) and 4,738 combined yards (4,428 passing, 310 rushing). Is the following statement BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: This fall, the quarterback falls short of the QB top-10 in total scoring.

Scott – BELIEVE. Here’s where the regression tax is likely to hit hard. Jacksonville’s defense and running game were a mess last year, forcing Bortles to play catch-up almost every Sunday. To be fair, it was often Bortles who dug the hole in the first place, with his scattershot accuracy and lapses in decision-making. Chris Ivory is a boost to the running game and the defense surely will be improved. I’m not saying Bortles resets to zero, but I’ll let someone else chase the Garbage Time Hero.

Brad – BELIEVE. In addition to the reasons mentioned above for Robinson’s regression (e.g. improved defense and Ivory’s presence), Bortles has several alarming underlying numbers that, if they continue on a similar path, suggest he will experience a measurable drop-off in 2016.

For starters, he ranked rather unappealingly in several key categories including completion percentage, red-zone completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. In other words, unless rapid advancements are made, he is the definition of “volume needy.” Also the offensive line, which ranked No. 25 in pass-blocking per Football Outsiders, remains a giant question mark. Put it all together, and Bortles presumably doesn’t sniff 30 total scores.

In light of T.J. Yeldon’s underwhelming rookie year, the Jags inked battering ram Chris Ivory (96.1 ADP, RB35) to a five-year $32.5 million deal this offseason. According to the Florida Times Union, the vet will enter training camp as the starter. OVER or UNDER Ivory total touchdowns this season 6.5.

Scott – OVER, though that doesn’t mean I’m going to chase after Ivory. His body type and skill set make him the preferred choice at the goal line, sure. I see 7-9 touchdowns likely, with the upside for more. But will he play as much as Yeldon between the 20s? Will Ivory stay relevant when the Jags fall behind early? That remains to be seen. But if it’s cheap touchdowns you’re looking for, you came to the right place. Proceed to checkout.

Brad – OVER. For some sick reason, I foresee the Jags finishing at 8-8 this year, a record that implies it will be competitive late in several games. If that script is written, Ivory is sure to be a point of emphasis anywhere near the goal-line. Recall, the Brinks truck pushed his way into the end-zone on 28 percent of his carries inside the 10. Yeldon, meanwhile, scored a mere 18.2 percent of the time from that distance. Throw in his outstanding elusive numbers, consistent yards after contact and better-than-advertised hands and he is an absolute steal at his 96.1 ADP.

Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise and Scott @Scott_Pianowski.