Scouting Notebook: Jewel of the Knile
Investors talk about buying during panic. You’re supposed to buy when there is blood in the streets. In fantasy football this year, there is blood on the field and the panic is being felt by multiple owners in every league across the country.
Injuries wreaked havoc with the top of the draft board especially, and predictably at the running back position. Jamaal Charles is dealing with an ankle sprain. Eddie Lacy suffered his second concussion in his young career and is a much bigger risk now for the remainder of the season than when he was drafted. Doug Martin is hurt and probably out of a job due to Bobby Rainey’s continued excellence. A.J. Green is expected to miss at least a couple weeks with a foot injury. We’ve been run through the paces with Andre Ellington, who at least appears healthy. And Ryan Mathews looks like he is going to be out for a long while with a sprained MCL. That gets us through about four rounds. Were not even done with Week 2.
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And of course that doesn’t even count the Adrian Peterson child abuse charges, which appears poised to make him a non-entity in the NFL indefinitely. (LATE NOTE: Peterson is going to play on Sunday, say the Vikings. But he still may be at risk for a lengthy suspension under the NFL's new domestic violence policy that's reportedly at commissioner's discretion and requires no due process.)
But all of this disruption creates opportunities for new players who were off of our radar.
We have to start in Kansas City where, pending an update on Charles, Knile Davis appears to be every bit a top-shelf fantasy feature back for as long as he’s starting. If Charles is out even weeks, break the bank to get Davis. Charles has been diagnosed with the dreaded high-ankle sprain. Davis is an elite prospect who scouting types love for his size/speed ratio. He’s also a PPR threat and plays for a coach who knows how to employ running backs in high-leverage ways that gain us maximum fantasy points.
Rainey is a top get this week, too. But you should have had him last week via waivers. In any even semi-serious league, it’s too late. Rainey has started seven games now and has three 100-yard games. He also has elite measurables (as does Martin, it’s fair to say). Martin has six career 100-yard rushing games in 23 starts. Check out Rainey’s combine scores and his elite percentile scores.
And while we’re at it, here’s Davis’s (they’re even better).
The use of Travis Kelce is frustrating but he’s flashed too much to not keep a place on your roster, even if you have to carry two tight ends. We’re talking "Baby Gronk" here. He has seven catches for 130 yards. I don’t know how many routes he’s run but it hasn’t been that many (he unbelievably wasn’t on the field for the Chiefs’ fourth-and-goal play to tie Denver). There’s a stat that many use called yards per route run. Kelce’s number there I predict will be off the chart. The league leader among TEs last year was Rob Gronkowski at 2.75 (Jimmy Graham was next at 2.26). Kelce is easily over three and may top 4.0.
Davonte Adams was very active for Green Bay. Jarrett Boykin is a ham and egger. Adams is way more talented and not even the most talented rookie Green Bay wideout. Jeff Janis, who will definitely be starting for the Packers next year when Randall Cobb leaves, is.
Vegas had Eddie Lacy’s over/under rushing yards at 70.5 Sunday. Don’t play any backs against the Jets. (Lacy finished with 43 yards on 13 carries).
The best news at running back is DeMarco Murray, who is the top back now in fantasy and reality. Murray will never have to face eight-men in the box and has one of the best offensive lines in football creating big holes, which he doesn’t even need.
Geno Smith flashed enough for you to not worry about Eric Decker (always a silly fear). But he missed a wide-open Decker for an 80-yard TD and then Decker hurt his hamstring, but that didn’t seem too serious.
Yeah, Antonio Gates. A lot of people smirked about the Ladarius Green people like me wanting Gates out. I never wanted that. I wanted a Patriots-styled two-TE offense or merely Green standing in the slot. I wanted that last year over Vincent Brown, who was comically non-productive. I want it this year over Eddie Royal. But we’re not going to get it, it seems. He’s droppable, if you are pinched.
Assuming Mathews is out long term, view Danny Woodhead as the same as Pierre Thomas and Donald Brown as the new Mark Ingram (out a month with a hand injury). Same players going forward.
Too bad about Ingram, who was in need of more carries. Before the news of the hand injury, he was the perfect zeroRB guy (when you don’t draft a back through Round 5).
Stop it with Brian Hoyer. I don’t care about his Tebow-ing. He’s averaging about six yards per attempt. The owner wants Johnny Manziel at the reigns, presumably, since he wanted him on the team. You can figure out what happens next/soon.
Yeah, A.J. Green isn’t looking too good for us pompous, risk-averse zeroRB people. Again, it’s just about odds. We’re losing three times as many backs as wideouts, right? Here’s where to go for Green injury updates. It sounds scary bad as in potentially season-ending. But don’t react until you know for sure. Losing sleep is warranted though.
Jeremy Hill can play but he’s just a guy on your roster unless Gio is hurt or removed entirely from goal line. You can’t cut Hill though. He’s too good in too good an environment.
Lamar Miller gets a bump with Knowshon Moreno out anywhere from four weeks to all season. Forget about Moreno. Miller, who reportedly “tweaked” an ankle himself, now is a guy who you can win with if you chose to not invest heavily in running backs at your draft. He was another perfect zeroRB guy so many of us already have him.
The Chargers on Sunday played the role of the 1985 Dolphins to the Seahawks as the 1985 Bears. That was a butt whooping.
I like Rashad Jennings okay as a middle-round guy, but he was going in Rounds 3-4. He has 33 carries for 97 yards. And he’s 29 and not getting better.
Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle dropped about 120 yards worth of passes from Eli Manning, whose death has been greatly exaggerated. But Randle’s TD embodies everything we seek in a No. 1 receiver in our game. No other Giants receiver could have made it. But Randle just flashes. You can see the highlight on his league player page.
Norv Turner was being all Norv Turner again in not figuring out how to get the ball in Corderrelle Patterson’s hands either in the air or from scrimmage. That’s coaching malpractice. But Patterson’s going to be up and down, we knew that. Turner’s gameplan instead seemed designed to get Matt Asiata as many touches as possible, which is hilarious. Asita is a total ham and egger with horrible athleticism (cover your eyes before you click). Oh, and he’s 27. He’s low priority for me. Really low.
The good QBs evade the rush and reload. The bad ones like Matt Cassel just keep running, right into a three-yard sack instead of an eight-yard sack.
Sammy Watkins made a statement to naysayers like me who criticized that pick. But can he show playable constancy?
Stephen Gostkowski has a cannon: way high into the net from 48 outdoors and then at least 10 rows deep into the stands behind the end zone on the subsequent kickoff.
Yes, Gronk looks stiff. But he's going to feel his way back for the first month. The guys who bet on him weren’t counting on anything serious Weeks 1 and 2. Talk to me in December. Trade for Gronkowski if you can.
Bill Belichick is not going to like Shane Vereen running out of bounds short of the marker on third down. Oh, and Steve Ridley is as he always was, zeroRB, sixth-round gold.