Raiders, Patriots have identical records, so why is Oakland AFC's No. 1 seed now?
On paper, the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots are nearly identical. Of course, the comparisons might end right there. But check out the symmetry of the AFC’s two best teams in the standings, which is uncanny:
Overall record: 8-2
Home: 3-2
Road: 5-0
Division: 2-1
Conference: 6-1
So why are the Raiders, and not the Patriots, the AFC’s No. 1 seed currently entering Week 12? Because they have the edge on the fourth tiebreaker. Here is the order of the playoff tiebreakers that help separate teams with the same record:
First tiebreaker: Head to head — doesn’t apply, as they haven’t played (and will not play) this regular season
Second: Conference games — both at 6-1
Third: Common games, minimum of four — not yet applicable (see below)
Fourth: Strength of victory — Raiders lead, .469 to the Patriots’ .375
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Yes, beating the Cleveland Browns is expected. But the Patriots actually get hurt by having them and their 0-11 boat anchor of a record on their schedule. That’s a huge reason why the Raiders currently edge the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC.
But back to that third tiebreaker for a moment. Right now, the Patriots and Raiders have only faced one team in common — the Houston Texans, whom both teams beat (including the Raiders’ controversial “home” win on Monday in Mexico City). But by the end of the season, they will have reached that minimum of four common opponents once each has played the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos.
As of now, the Patriots have split with the Bills, one win and one loss; they will face the Ravens (in Foxboro) and Broncos (in Denver) in Weeks 14 and 15. The Raiders beat the Broncos and Ravens already, and they face the Bills (in Oakland) in Week 13 and the Broncos (in Denver) in Week 17. Slight advantage, Oakland.
But as far as the remainder of the schedule goes, the Patriots hold an edge. The Patriots have the league’s 22nd-toughest remaining schedule (opponents win percentage of 48 percent) and the Raiders face the 11th-roughest slate (55 percent). After all, overall record matters more. The Patriots face the Jared Goff-led Los Angeles Rams and have two games against the New York Jets, who appear to hate all of their quarterback options. So those look like three almost certain victories for New England, even with two of them against a rival team that traditionally plays them close at least once a season.
So as we’re wont to say this time of year, there’s a lot of football left. But it’s not insignificant that the Raiders — who have gone 14 years without sniffing the postseason, at a time when the franchise’s future in their hometown remains uncertain — are currently atop the conference totem pole entering the final weekend in November.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
