R.I.P.: 2014 Arizona Diamondbacks season
RIPs: Rangers | Red Sox | Rockies
A season that started with 18 losses in the first 23 games is officially over for the Diamondbacks. Well, they do still have 14 more games to play, but they were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention on Thursday. Let's pay our last respects to their 2014 season.
What went right
Not much at all. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt showed last year was no fluke by hitting .300/.396/.542 (157 OPS+) with 39 doubles and 19 home runs in 109 games before a pitch broke his hand and ended his season. Rookie outfielder David Peralta has been a nice surprise and is hitting .293/.326/.461 (115 OPS+) with seven homers in 80 games. Outfielder A.J. Pollock was in the middle of a breakout season (145 OPS+) before breaking his hand and missing several months. Lefty Vidal Nuno, acquired from the Yankees in the Brandon McCarthy trade, has a 3.16 ERA (120 ERA+) in 11 starts. That's pretty much it for the good stuff.
What went wrong
Oh boy, where do I start? I guess with the injuries. Ace Patrick Corbin blew out his elbow in spring training and did not pitch at all this year due to Tommy John surgery. The ultra-durable Bronson Arroyo made 14 starts before blowing out his elbow and needing Tommy John surgery. Mark Trumbo broke his foot and missed a few months. Goldschmidt and Pollock broke their hands and hotshot rookie shortstop Chris Owings missed a bunch of time with a shoulder problem. Those are the big injuries. They had plenty of smaller injuries to deal with as well.
It makes sense to cover the underperformers next. McCarthy (76 ERA+), Gerardo Parra (84 OPS+) and Martin Prado (90 OPS+) disappointed and were traded away for something less than full value. Aaron Hill (79 OPS+) hasn't hit at all and he's since moved down the defensive spectrum, from second base to third. Trevor Cahill (73 ERA+) has been better of late, but he was so bad earlier in the season that he had to be sent all the way down to Single-A ball. Didi Gregorius (73 OPS+) got a chance to play when Owings went down and he did nothing to shake the "all glove, no bat" rep.
And then there's the "eye for an eye" nonsense. The D-Backs, particularly GM Kevin Towers, spent plenty of time last offseason talking about the need to get tougher, including retaliating when their players get hit by pitches. In two high-profile incidents this summer, Arizona intentionally hit Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen after their players were accidentally plunked. McCutchen suffered a small rib fracture. The team came under a lot of scrutiny for this.
MVP
Goldschmidt, easily. Even with the hand injury. He's a true franchise player and a bright spot in an organization that is among the most chaotic in baseball.
LVP
Lots of candidates, but I'll go with Hill. Trumbo hasn't hit as expected either, but at least he can fall back on the injury excuse. Hill was healthy for most of the year and put up a soft .244/.283/.371 (79 OPS+) batting line with 10 home runs. His defense also took a big step back. Hill is sitting on -1.3 WAR right now and that number seems very appropriate given his play this summer.
Free agents to be
None, though Cliff Pennington, Nolan Reimold and Jordan Pacheco can be considered non-tender candidates.
Game plan heading into the offseason
First things first, the D-Backs need a new GM. Towers was fired last week -- he was offered another position in the organization but is still undecided about his future -- and the club insists they will have a replacement in place by the end of the regular season. Their list of candidates is reportedly more than 10 names long. Tony La Russa, who was hired to oversee the baseball operations department back in May, appears to be calling the shots alongside ownership.
The new GM will have his hands full, though the roster does have some interesting pieces. Obviously it starts with Goldschmidt, but both Corbin and Daniel Hudson will be returning from elbow reconstruction early next year. (Hudson has returning this month.) Pollock and Owings will get to start the season healthy and both Peralta and third baseman Jake Lamb will be around for the full season. Top prospect Archie Bradley is knocking on the door as well. I don't know if I would call that championship caliber core, but it is something a new GM can work with.
In addition to shoring up the pitching staff -- every team needs pitching help every winter, this is not something unique to the Diamondbacks -- sorting out the second base position with Hill is a priority. Are they going to stick with him and hope he rebounds, or sell low like they did with McCarthy, Parra and Prado? They have to answer the same question with left field and Trumbo.
The D-Backs opened the season with a franchise record $112 million payroll and they did shed some money by trading McCarthy, Parra and Prado, but it's still tough to see them opening next year with payroll at a similar level after such a disappointing year. They'll likely be limited to second and third tier free agents this winter.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
A big percentage of Arizona's chances next year will depend on players returning from injuries (Goldschmidt, Corbin, Hudson) and down years (Trumbo, Hill, Cahill), and that is a very risky way to do business. It's inevitable a few of those guys won't bounce back as quickly as expected. Even with a few small free agent pickups and good health, the D-Backs are looking like a third place team at best in the top heavy NL West, but still not good enough to make a serious run at a wild-card berth.
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