Overvalued/Undervalued ADPs
Hopefully, you have had an opportunity to participate in some mock drafts by now. It's great practice for the "real" thing and it pays to know where players are ranked. Yahoo also has a new interface that you can familiarize yourself with.
It's still early and the drafts we do now might not be the same as the ones we have prior to the beginning of the regular season, but it's still valuable to see how other fantasy GMs are thinking entering the year. I wanted to share my thoughts on some players who I feel are going a little high and some who could provide more value than their present draft standings indicate.
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Patrick Kane (CHI) - C, RW - The criminal investigation into Kane has left plenty of uncertainty regarding his status for the 2015-16 campaign. He still hasn't been charged yet, which places the NHL and the Blackhawks in a unique situation. Kane may not be in attendance when training camp opens next week and the threat of a suspension is a real possibility depending on the findings of the investigation. The grand jury hearings, which were supposed to decide whether there was enough evidence to charge Kane, have been postponed, which led to a report of a possible settlement. However, nothing has been confirmed yet and he remains in limbo. Despite that, Kane has been going in the first round in the majority of Yahoo drafts and he's being selected on average with pick No. 11.6. Fantasy owners don't seem to be concerned about his status, but I'm wary of it. It would be a high price to pay if he is charged and/or suspended. It's a difficult call to make, but I would let someone else worry about his status and draft a different star player in his place. There will be plenty of other talent available in that range and they won't carry the same distractions and risk.
Devan Dubnyk (MIN) - G - Dubnyk shined last year as a member of the Wild. He posted a 27-9-2 record to go with a .936 save percentage and a 1.78 goals-against average. It's easy to look at numbers like that and pick him without a second thought. However, fantasy owners looking for the same brilliant play will probably be left feeling disappointed. I like Dubnyk as a depth option this season, but not as a number one fantasy keeper. He is the ninth netminder going off the board right now ahead of Corey Crawford, Sergei Bobrovsky, Semyon Varlamov, Jaroslav Halak and Roberto Luongo. That's not a decision I can get behind.
Connor McDavid (EDM) - C - As a disclaimer, I completely believe in the potential of Connor McDavid. I've seen him play first-hand on several occasions and it won't take him long to make an impact in the NHL. Still, expectations should be tempered for any rookie. Steve Stamkos registered 46 points in his first year and John Tavares recorded 54 points during his introductory season. Of course there are exceptions like Sidney Crosby, who amassed 102 points. McDavid has the skill to follow in Crosby's footsteps and he's expected to get every opportunity to succeed, but erring on the side of caution doesn't hurt. In Rotoworld's first staff mock draft for the Fantasy Hockey Guide, McDavid wasn't selected until the second pick of the sixth round in a 10-team league. That may be too conservative for some, especially those in Yahoo leagues who are taking him in the third round with an average pick of 34.9. The 18-year-old represents an interesting high-risk high-reward consideration. If you wait too long to choose him then you probably won't get him, but chasing after rookies in a one-year league isn't a practice I can recommend. It should be pointed out that Buffalo's Jack Eichel, who has plenty of hype around him as well as the second overall pick in 2015, is being chosen during 12th or 13th round at an average draft position of 129.4. McDavid and Eichel can be steals in drafts if they live up to the hype, but I would still caution fantasy owners from reaching for them in their rookie seasons if you aren't participating in a dynasty league.
Nick Foligno (CBJ) - C, LW - Foligno broke out last season with 31 goals and 73 points in 79 games last season. His previous bests were the 18 markers he scored in 2013-14 and the 47 points he had with the Ottawa Senators in 2011-12. That's a significant jump which was aided by a career high 17.0 shooting percentage and a spot alongside top center Ryan Johansen. Foligno's stock was bound to rise after the year he had, but I think he's being overvalued. He's being chosen on average in the fifth round at selection No. 46.3 in Yahoo drafts. That's putting him ahead of other left wing eligible forwards Gabriel Landeskog, Alexander Steen, Daniel Sedin, Pavel Datsyuk, Johnny Gaudreau and Andrew Ladd. Aside from Gaudreau, who is loaded with promise, they are more established and reliable options for your consideration. Foligno will face stiffer competition for playing time in 2015-16, as Columbus was devastated by injury last season. The arrival of Brandon Saad from Chicago could also bump Foligno to the second unit. I wouldn't expect another 70-point season from him, but 55-60 remains a possibility.
Jaden Schwartz (STL) - LW - Schwartz has enjoyed plenty of success in his last two seasons. He nearly hit the 60-point plateau in his first full year in 2013-14 and he surpassed that mark last campaign. Schwartz doesn't get as much attention on the Blues as he should, but he has proven to be a dependable producer. He has shown that he can be successful with anybody, but playing alongside Vladimir Tarasenko or Paul Stastny will only help his upward trend. Look for him to record 30 goals and between 60-70 points, which will bring plenty of value to a player currently going in the 11th round with an ADP of 107.5.
Tyler Ennis (BUF) - C, LW - Ennis is another player who has plenty of sleeper potential. He has played well on a bad Buffalo team for the last two seasons. The three-time 20-goal scorer hasn't had much to work with on the Sabres, but that will change this season. Buffalo probably won't turn everything around in 2015-16, but the their top-six forward group will be significantly better thanks to the presence of Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly and Jack Eichel. That should help Ennis surpass the 50-point mark for the first time in his career. Don't let his average draft position of 175.7 prevent you from taking a chance on him, as he could flirt with the 60-point plateau. He is flying under the radar right now, so you should be able to select him in the later rounds of your draft.
Torey Krug (BOS) - D - With Dougie Hamilton traded to Calgary, Krug is expecting to earn a promotion into the top-four group of the Bruins' defense corps. He could end up playing alongside Zdeno Chara or Dennis Seidenberg. Krug took on a larger role with Team USA at the 2015 IIHF World Championship and he performed well in a shutdown capacity. He also didn't slow down much offensively with five points in 10 games. Krug had 14 goals and 40 points in his rookie season and he produced 12 markers and 39 points last season. The 24-year-old is being selected at an average draft position of 113.1, which would represent tremendous value for a 40-50 point defenseman. He is shaping up to be an undervalued gem who you shouldn't forget about when seeking to add depth to your back end.
Tyler Myers (WPG) - D - Myers is another defender I like as a potential sleeper this season. He generated three goals and 15 points in 24 games with the Jets after he was acquired from Buffalo. Myers also posted 52 shots and a plus-9 rating. Even if Dustin Byfuglien isn't traded or switched to forward again, Myers will be a key member of Winnipeg's blueline this season. He'll see heavy minutes at even strength and he'll get plenty of power play opportunities as well. The 25-year-old has 40-point potential, so it's surprising to see him being neglected in the majority of the early Yahoo fantasy pools. His average draft position is currently 168.5 and the average round he is going in is 15.8. Myers is being underrated after some troubling times in Buffalo, but this is the year that he gets back on track.
Here are some other players who can provide your fantasy squad with more bang for the buck:
Mike Ribeiro (NSH) - C - Avg. Pick 171.4
Brandon Dubinsky (CBJ) - C, LW - Avg. Pick 171.2
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH) - C, LW - Avg. Pick 173.5
Jason Spezza (DAL) - C - Avg. Pick 127.1
Joe Thornton (SJS) - C - Avg. Pick 138.7
Eric Staal (CAR) - C - Avg. Pick 132.5
Jimmy Howard (DET) - G - Avg. Pick 125.3
Justin Abdelkader (DET) - LW, RW - Avg. Pick 168.6
