By The Numbers Week 36

Firstly let me apologise for not releasing a post last week, I had the good fortune to be living it up on the Greek island of Santorini where the views are amazing but the wifi unfortunately was not. On the fantasy football front it’s been a good time also with 270 points scored over the last two weeks. It might be too little too late for this season but if I can make it back into the top 5000 I’ll put the season down as a win.

Goalkeepers

To me, the interesting thing this week is that there are three goalkeepers who cost less than £2m making them perfect for your bench. The names in the frame (Krul, Butland & Davis)however are cheap for a reason so I would suggest caution – Davis seems the best bet even if they are away to a the highly scoring Leicester.

Of the traditional choices, there are four keepers who fit the requirement of a 32% chance of success and all four appear to offer value for money too. The names in the frame are Ospina, Hart, De Gea and Howard. Personally I think the first two are your safest plays, especially when United are losing to the likes of West Brom and Howard….well Everton are resurgent but after another negative week I just can’t do it. I think that I should give an honourable mention to Harper at Hull who missed out by a fraction with 31%. He faces Burnley who apparently have forgotten how to score goals – they last scored in week 29. He’s at home but I’m a little concerned over his high price (artificially elevated by his score a week ago) and for the same price, Ospina and Hart are better options.

I still have Schmeichel at £1m so I’ll be keeping hold of him and probably putting Davis on the bench.

The Predictor

As you can see from this week’s table, there a couple of teams who do really well and have a greater than 60% chance of success this week. Even though Liverpool are fighting for a champion’s league place I don’t think that they have a snowflakes chance in hell of beating the champions. Similarly, I think that Everton should do well at home (previous comment about Howard notwithstanding) so Lukaku makes a good choice. Arsenal and Leicester fill out the top four offensive choices this week so you should also be looking at Ulloa, Vardy, Albrighton, Sanchez, Remy and Giroud. It’s worth noting that Benteke is in a very rich run of form and Aston Villa are a 46% chance of success.

The Poisson revival is still a work in progress so you’ll all have to watch this space. Hope you have a good week, see you next time.