By The Numbers Week 12

Welcome back after the international break. You’ll be happy to know that I’ve been spending the time thinking up some new and inventive ideas for fantasy football predictions, you’ll be less happy to know that they’ll be coming in the coming weeks rather than right now – they’ll be worth the wait.

My season continues in good form with a solid 111 points last week, that puts me back into the 100+ average club which is where we all want to be (although I suspect I was write in my very first post where I suggested this year 120 might be closer to the mark). I’m sure that I, like many of you, are now getting to a situation where certain players aren’t going anywhere unless they’re injured e.g. Aguero, Sanchez, Costa, Fabregas, Di Maria, Kelly etc. Aguero to my mind is the best we’re likely to see this season (even if I think Chelsea will win the league)

So, without further ado, here’s this week’s predictions:

Goalkeepers

This week’s graph looks like this:

It’s a tricky one really with only a couple of players that look to offer a good balance between price and success; Chelsea’s Courtois and Stoke’s Begovic at 7.14 and 6.84 respectively. There’s some other potential there but I don’t really see any point looking elsewhere. Personally, I’m not entirely convinced by Courtois and his ability to keep a clean sheet so I’ll be looking toward Begovic (unless I stick with Foster who has every chance).

Predictor

Here’s this week’s predictions:

Last week was our worst performing week, bringing our average down to just under 7 correct predictions per week. That’s still good in my book and you can never really see draws popping up and ruining your plans. Southampton still have a high probability because of the 8 goals they scored a few weeks ago so take that will a pinch of salt – it will be out of the figures in a few weeks and things should calm down a bit by then. The data makes me feel far better again of my selection of Begovic.

Poisson Prediction

Here we go again, the team most likely to keep a clean sheet is Stoke. That’s my mind made up I think!

Looking at the figures, it all feels about right to me, as it usually does. Everton are massive underdogs to keep a clean sheet but I guess I should accept that – that have been really leaky even if they’re slightly better than the start of the season.