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NFL against the spread picks: Can the Cowboys win at Lambeau Field?

frank schwab
NFL writer

Not all wins in the NFL are the same. Beating the Miami Dolphins at home this season isn’t the same as, say, going into Lambeau Field and beating the Green Bay Packers.

The Dallas Cowboys on Sunday have a chance to announce to the world how good they are.

The Cowboys go into Green Bay battling a few trends, according to OddsShark. They have failed to cover in their last six games against teams with winning records. They’ve lost five in a row to the Packers. The Packers usually find their groove in October, going 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 October games. And we know the Packers seem like a different team at home.

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If the Cowboys win on Sunday, it would legitimize their 4-1 start that everyone, including Jerry Jones, is surprised by. We’d have to start thinking of them as title contenders. It would also give more intensity to the impending Tony Romo-Dak Prescott controversy.

But there’s a reason the Cowboys are 4-point underdogs. The Packers usually play well at home and I’ll pick them as the favorite. Green Bay’s run defense has been the best in the league, and while the Packers haven’t been tested by anyone as good as Dallas, they can do enough to limit the Cowboys’ run game and force a rookie quarterback to make plays. I like the matchup for the Packers.

However, if the Cowboys pull off the upset, it’s time to take them very seriously this season.

Ezekiel Elliott has helped the Cowboys to a 4-1 start (AP)
Ezekiel Elliott has helped the Cowboys to a 4-1 start (AP)

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 6 in the NFL:

SUPERCONTEST

Lions (-3.5) over Rams: I’m surprised this line isn’t higher. The Rams have a ton of important defensive injuries and a bad offense. (The line is -3 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Bengals (+8.5) over Patriots: The Patriots are really good, but I haven’t given up on the Bengals. And they’ll be desperate. Too many points here.

Redskins (+2.5) over Eagles: I’m fairly shocked over the Eagles getting this much respect on the line. That Steelers win is carrying a lot of weight.

Chiefs (pick ’em) over Raiders: As you’ve probably heard by now, Andy Reid is great after a bye week. He is 15-2 after the bye. The Raiders don’t have much of a home-field edge, failing to cover in their last six home games, according to OddsShark. Seems like a spot for the Raiders’ record in close games this season to correct itself a bit. (The line is Chiefs +1 on the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Texans (-3) over Colts: Can’t say I’m very impressed with the Texans anymore, not until Brock Osweiler shows he can be an average quarterback. But I’m even less impressed with the Colts.

And the rest of the NFL picks:

Chargers (+3.5) over Broncos (picked Thursday): The Broncos are finally looking like a team that doesn’t have a quarterback (though, it’s tough to be without your coach on a Thursday night road game).

Bills (-7.5) over 49ers: Here’s the deal for the 49ers: If Colin Kaepernick plays really well, he can void his deal and become a free agent, thanks to his new contract. Doesn’t this seem counterproductive for the 49ers? They’re 1-4, not going anywhere, want a good draft pick and will lose Kaepernick if he’s really good this season. So why would they want Kaepernick to be good this season? It’s a weird situation.

Jaguars (+2.5) over Bears: I can’t say I feel good about picking the Jaguars on the road. But I wouldn’t feel good about picking the Bears either.

Browns (+7) over Titans: It’s a weird state of affairs for Cleveland when you’re relieved that Cody Kessler seems to be healthy enough to start. The Titans are the type of team that will keep most games close, for better or worse.

Dolphins (+7.5) over Steelers: I’ll hate myself for this pick when I look up and the Steelers are winning 28-0 in the first quarter.

Panthers (-3) over Saints: For the third straight week, I’ll go with “I can’t believe a Panthers team this good will have a 1-(fill in the blank) record” as my reason. It’s just hard to buy that a team with a roster that talented can go from 15-1 to terrible.

Giants (-3) over Ravens: Neither team excites me, but the Giants are back home after a tough scheduling spot, playing at the Vikings and Packers in back-to-back games. And even though the Bills turned around their season after firing their offensive coordinator, it will be a tough adjustment for the Ravens after firing Marc Trestman this week.

Seahawks (-6) over Falcons: Tough spot for Atlanta. They had to travel west to face a physical Broncos defense, then have to come all the way back to the Pacific Northwest to face another physical defense. I think the Seahawks are getting healthier and will roll.

Jets (+7.5) over Cardinals: There are a lot of big (for the NFL) spreads this week. Be careful in your survivor pools, because this seems like a week for some havoc.

Last week: 9-5
Season to date: 36-42
SuperContest: 2-3 last week, 8-17 season

Can Colin Kaepernick help San Francisco? Plus: Week 6 picks

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!