Monday Morning Manager - WK27
There is a definite love/hate relationship going on between the press that covers the Premier League and the teams that they cover. Ordinarily, I’d leave this discussion for the “Fake Narrative of the Week” section but it seems like it merits some room in the intro. The narrative that I’m talking about is that there’s something in the DNA of English teams that makes them somehow inferior when facing their European brethren. In the wake of Manchester City and Arsenal losing at home in Champions League action and looking highly likely to exit that competition in the Round of Sixteen and Spurs and Liverpool bowing out entirely of the Europa Cup this week, it seems that the drumbeat is that English clubs are tactically incapable of matching up.
The first thing that seems a bit foolish about this line of thinking is that only one of those four clubs is managed by someone from the United Kingdom (Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers who is from Northern Ireland). Somehow, apparently, Manuel Pellegrini, Arsene Wenger, and Mauricio Pochettino have been miraculously transformed into guileless Englishmen when their English teams travel across the channel (or European teams make that same trip to visit). It’s as if the English badge on the kit somehow dooms managers, all of whom have managed in continental leagues, to a level of ineptness that can be found nowhere else on the planet (well, except the US where, of course, we don’t know anything at all about the beautiful game no matter how many times we make it out of the group stage at the World Cup).
Somehow, no one is willing to place the blame for English failings this past week at the feet of the schedule-makers at the Premier League and FA who are driving their teams into the ground in a quest for the almighty Pound, Dollar, and Euro. Whereas the Premier League piles on fixture after fixture through the holiday season, especially the period between Christmas and New Years, Ligue 1 (where Monaco plays), Serie A (where Fiorentina plays), and the Turkish Super League (where Besiktas) all enjoy breaks in December and January to allow their players to recharge their batteries slightly before the next round of the Champions League begins.
I’m not implying that clubs in those other countries don’t play a lot of matches, things are rough all over. What I am saying is that by not giving their players a couple weeks off to recover, the Premier League is sabotaging their teams in this particular round of competition. By the next round of competition, not that most English teams will be there to see it, things will have equalized and everyone will be back to being about equally exhausted from their long seasons. In previous qualifying rounds, everyone was pretty much on the same footing and you heard a lot less about how English clubs were tactical failures.
Now, those of you self-flagellating fans of the Premier League, may be looking at the obvious counter-example of Manchester City growing into their match with Barcelona as a counter to my premise. It’s true, that match didn’t follow the script of the English team starting out reasonably well only to fall down, potentially exhausted, at the end. To that I say, “it was freakin’ Barcelona”. Manchester City just aren’t as good, player for player, as Barcelona and unless Barca are far less rested, City are at risk of losing that match whether it’s played at the Etihad, Camp Nou or on the Moon.
Monaco were astute tactically for sure. They probably had some sense that Arsenal might have a bit less in the tank than they did and they played that perfectly. They absorbed pressure early when Arsenal were playing well. They bided their time and then waited for the mistakes to come and the effort to wane. How difficult is it to blame Olivier Giroud’s two misses on being at less than his best due to fixture congestion? Likewise Per Mertesacker’s defensive failings could easily be chalked up to not being at peak fitness. Those four incidents swung the match from potentially being 3-1 to Arsenal to the 3-1 result for Monaco that went into the books. Liverpool and Spurs, who both had to travel significant distances for their return legs, could be forgiven if their failings had origins in the same root cause.
Were the English clubs perfect in their tactical approach to their mid-week matches? Of course not but it’s rare that tactics win the game. It’s effort and execution that win the day and teams that are tired are unlikely to give superior effort or execute to their potential. So, next season, when we’re enjoying our Boxing Day and New Years Day footie extravaganzas, let’s remember that while they’re a blast to watch, they’re probably undermining the Champions League hopes of the teams playing those matches.
One final bit of (completely circumstantial) evidence. Arsenal certainly looked a lot better today against a club who has been playing a similar schedule (also managed by a non-Englishman and playing a very continental style). Just saying.
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The Title Race
Chelsea – Position: First Place, Points: 60, Form: 11 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Light (@WHU, SOU, @HUL, STK, @QPR) Congratulations to the Blues on their League Cup win. Even better, they managed to pick up steam in the title race despite the fact that they didn’t play. City needed the win at Anfield and they didn’t even get the draw.
The Race for Europe
Manchester City – Position: Second Place, Points: 55, Form: 8 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Light (LEI, @BUR, WBA, @CRY, WHU) They needed three points to put pressure on Chelsea and they couldn’t do it. Ask Manuel Pellegrini if he’d be willing to take his chances with one goal for his side and two shots from 20 yards plus for the opposition and he’d probably say “yes”. Most days he’d probably be in pretty good shape by saying so too. Not so today when Liverpool got two great individual efforts. It doesn’t help the title push to do it but there isn’t much more you can do than tip your cap when the opposition starts making more than one of those shots.
Arsenal – Position: Third Place, Points: 51, Form: 12 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Light (@QPR, WHU, @NEW, LIV, SUN) It wasn’t a thing of beauty but it was exactly what they needed. There was even some cosmic irony thrown in when the Gunners’ second goal was deflected past Tim Howard in almost the exact same way that Monaco’s first goal was deflected past David Ospina on Wednesday. The rotation of Mertesacker made sense, he’s been significantly over-worked given the injuries to Koscielny and the rest of the defense earlier in the season. The more interesting change was Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain jumping over both Danny Welbeck and Theo Walcott (neither of whom have played enough minutes this season to be tired) to start. Perhaps that was a Mourinho-like message from Wenger that the tracking back has to improve from both rotated players.
Liverpool – Position: Fifth Place, Points: 48, Form: 13 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (BUR, @SWN, MAN, @ARS, NEW) Last Monday, I bemoaned my lack of balls in keeping Liverpool down on this list and said I’d move them up if they beat City. Well, they beat City and here they are, my new presumptive fourth place team. They’re playing well where none of the teams below them on this list can say that they are. More importantly, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel of difficult matches. A visit from old foe the Red Devils and then a trip to the Emirates and Liverpool are through the murderer’s row portion of their second half schedule while Manchester United are still to face the bulk of their difficult matches (and Southampton are making all their matches look difficult).
Manchester United – Position: Fourth Place, Points: 50, Form: 10 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (@NEW, TOT, @LIV, AST, @CHE) Another mostly unimpressive performance for United who didn’t score until they were up a man against a relegation-threatened team. If you want to know why I have Manchester United here and Liverpool and Arsenal both above them on this list, here are some things for you to do. 1) Re-watch Manchester United vs. Sunderland; 2) Re-watch Liverpool vs. Manchester City; and 3) Look at United’s upcoming schedule. Liverpool are playing FAR better and now have the easier run-in. Arsenal aren’t playing as well as Liverpool but their schedule is significantly easier than United’s. Two years in a row without Champions League for United? Hard to imagine, but very much a possibility if not a probability.
Tottenham Hotspur – Position: Seventh Place, Points: 44, Form: 10 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (@QPR, SWN, @MAN, LEI, @BUR) A bummer about the League Cup loss but Chelsea were better today. More importantly to Spurs’ top four ambitions, Liverpool has inserted themselves as the hot team in the mix right now and completely stolen that thunder from Harry Kane and his goal-scoring heroics.
Southampton – Position: Sixth Place, Points: 46, Form: 4 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (CRY, @CHE, BUR, @EVE, @STK) It’s starting to look like the dream is well and truly dead for the Saints. They’ve started dropping points to teams below them in the table in a way that they just didn’t do in the first half of the season. They aren’t scoring goals. The bounces are going against them. They’ll take some huge wins and some great memories from this season and a big bandwagon of casual supporters who now have pleasant feeling for the Saints as “the new Everton”.
The Relegation Zone - where we examine events at the other end of the table as established clubs flounder and newly promoted clubs reveal who they are going to be this season. Like the sections above, I’ve reordered with the most likely to be relegated being first and the least likely of the group last.
Leicester City – Position: Twentieth Place, Points: 18, Form: 1 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (@MAC, HUL, @TOT, WHU, SWN) They got a week off because they would have played Chelsea this weekend. We’ll call that a stay of execution but we all know it’s still coming.
Burnley – Position: Eighteenth Place, Points: 22, Form: 2 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (@LIV, MAC, @SOU, TOT, @EVE) They played hard again but again they lost. Time to start savoring the memories of a season spent in the big time and starting to concentrate on how to replace Danny Ings in the Championship next season.
Aston Villa – Position: Nineteenth Place, Points: 22, Form: 0 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Moderate (WBA, @SUN, SWA, MAN, QPR) That’s zero points in their last seven matches and 0-2 from Tim Sherwood. After Newcastle got whipped by City last weekend you thought maybe there was some hope but, apparently not.
QPR – Position: Seventeenth Place, Points: 22, Form: 3 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Moderate (TOT, ARS, @CRY, EVE, @WBA) They got a stay from their trip to White Hart Lane and an extra week removed from the stink of Harry Redknapp. They still have to be jealous looking at how the arrival of a solid, professional top flight manager has changed the fates of Crystal Palace and West Brom but at least they got to watch Villa go another week without scoring to make them feel better about their chances.
Sunderland – Position: Sixteenth Place, Points: 25, Form: 5 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Moderate (@HUL, AVL, @WHU, NEW, @ARS) They were never likely to get a point from a trip to Old Trafford so not much has changed here. Still relatively safe due mostly to the abject misery below them in the table.
Hull City – Position: Fifteenth Place, Points: 26, Form: 7 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Moderate (SUN, @LEI, CHE, @SWN, LIV) Another striker crisis came up seemingly from nowhere to foil Hull City’s hopes of keeping the good feelings rolling. Nikica Jelavic picked up an injury and Dame N’Doye was on the bench after a quick trip to Senegal. With the next two matches very much winnable, Bruce will hope to have his in-form hitmen back for those occasions which could see them essentially safe from the drop if they were to win.
Everton – Position: Fourteenth Place, Points: 28, Form: 5 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Moderate (@STO, NEW, @QPR, SOU, @SWN) I’ve kept the Toffees on this list for a reason and that reason is starting to become apparent. Down to fourteenth after another loss combined with wins for Palace and West Brom. The frightening part is that one of Hull City or Sunderland could well catch Everton in the standings next weekend if they can’t unlock Stoke City (Hull City and Sunderland play each other so, theoretically, each has at least a solid chance of getting the three points it would take to catch/overtake Everton for fourteenth). With @QPR the only match that they can definitely count on over the next five, Everton are still likely safe but the bottom is rising to find them at an alarming rate.
West Brom – Position: Thirteenth Place, Points: 30, Form: 8 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Light (@AST, STK, @MAC, QPR, LEI) Hard to call them anything but safe at this point. They’re in mid-table form and the upcoming schedule looks pretty easy. Life is pretty good at the Hawthorns right now.
Crystal Palace – Position: Twelfth Place, Points: 30, Form: 10 points from past 5; Upcoming Schedule: Difficult (@SOU, QPR, @STK, MAC, @SUN) Even better than the Baggies. The Eagles got a big away win over a solid team and next up is another fading top half team. We’re going to consider both Palace and West Brom off this list unless something hideous happens.
Newcomer of the Year - where we track the progress of players new to the Premier League this season
Alexis Sanchez – It’s hard to figure out what’s going on with Sanchez. Is it that he’s tiring (it wouldn’t be a shock if he were after a World Cup summer and a high usage rate all season) or that he hasn’t figured out how to fit in with the Cazorla/Ozil/Giroud triumvirate that is dominating the action for Arsenal these days? It isn’t that Sanchez has a lot of the ball and is failing, it’s that he just doesn’t seem to have that much of the ball right now.
Cesc Fabregas – Nice to have a trophy but we don’t award points for action outside the Premier League in this feature.
Diego Costa – See Fabregas above (except he had a nice goal in the League Cup win).
Charlie Austin – A week off as QPR was due to face Spurs.
Dusan Tadic/Graziano Pelle/Sadio Mane/Eljero Elia – If there were a way to short sell stock in Premier League players, the moment Eljero Elia scored his brace would have been the time to short this entire group.
Gylfi Sigurdsson – A (very) late scratch from Swansea’s 1-0 over Burnley with a hamstring issue.
Alex Song – Not a great day for the Hammers as Crystal Palace were all over them.
Fraser Forster – It seems like we’re beating the same drum again – hard to blame Forster for the goal but in the end they still lost so hard to take much positive from it either.
Diafra Sakho – No goal from Sakho this week but Daley Blind didn’t do enough to rest this spot from him so Blind remains on the outside looking in.
Dame N’Doye – He came in off the bench late but it wasn’t enough to get Steve Bruce’s team a goal. Next weekend against Sunderland should provide a better chance to return to the goals.
Who We’re Watching: Juan Cuadrado, Bafetimbi Gomis (he should be starting for Swansea with Bony at the ACN and then likely headed to Manchester City, Angel Di Maria (maybe he’ll find some form), Enner Valencia (likely to get a run of starts with Sakho off to the ACN), Marcos Rojo/Ander Herrera (back from injury), Phillip Wollscheid (started at CB for Stoke against Arsenal), Lazar Markovic (he should get a run of games with Lallana out), Emre Can (becoming more influential at the base of Liverpool’s midfield as he gets adjusted to the Premier League).
Just Missing Out: Daley Blind, Angel di Maria, Enner Valencia, Thibaut Courtois, Jefferson Montero, Toby Alderweireld, Falcao, Andrew Robertson, Leonardo Ulloa, Danny Welbeck, Daley Blind, Ander Herrera, Eric Dier, Kieran Trippier, Joseph Schlupp, Patrick van Aanholt.
Dropping Off:
The Phantom Point All-Stars – Where we list those players who failed to tally any “major” statistics (goal, assist, clean sheet) but scored big in the more subtle categories like tackles won, passes intercepted, blocked shots, shots on target, successful crosses or corners won that can make a fantasy week in formats that reward these statistics. Occasionally, we’ll reward a player who gets an assist or a clean sheet if they also had a big “phantom” weekend.
I said this would be back this week and even though I’m early with the column, I’m also subbing in on Player Picks tomorrow so I’m going to save my time for that since I definitely have a little rust to shake off writing that column.
The Fake Narrative of the Week - It is impossible to go a week without encountering a narrative somewhere in the football media that appears to be totally made up for the sake of gaining attention. They usually fall into the categories of made up transfer rumors, hanging on too long to a mental image of who a player was and not who he currently is, or preying on a long-held stereotype based on club, nationality, or position. When I come across them, I'll let you know and then let you know why I think they're silly.
I think we covered this more than adequately in the opening.
What’s Going On In The Fantasy Premier League World? – I’ve run out of “Sponsors I’d Like To See” for now but I’m replacing it with a section on what’s going on with some of the major season-long and daily fantasy games available to Premier League fantasy devotees.
The news that we reported last week is by and large the same since most of it focused on Champions League games that continue this week as Manchester City and Arsenal join the fun from the Premier League.
Yahoo – We’re not an MLS section here but we’re American, we’re MLS supporters (well, at least those of us who live on this side of the pond are), and we’re excited that Yahoo are releasing an MLS fantasy game. Check it out here and then cross your fingers that MLS and their Players Union come to an agreement so that the season can start on time.
Be sure to share anything interesting that you think fantasy managers should know about with me via Twitter.
Random Closing Thoughts - Well, this one's pretty obvious and it will be how we close out the column each week at least until a better idea comes along.
My Second Club – Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey…
This Week’s Good Points: Good points for Crystal Palace (3), West Brom (3) and Liverpool (2) were the big winners this week with Palace extending its lead at the top of this category for the season.
The Good Points Table: Crystal Palace 20; Leicester City: 17; Hull City 13; Burnley 12; Swansea City 12; Newcastle 10; Stoke City 10; Sunderland 10; West Ham 9; Spurs 8; Liverpool 7; West Brom 7; Arsenal 6; QPR 5; Manchester United 4; Aston Villa 4; Chelsea 3; Southampton 3; Everton 1.
This Week’s Bad Points: Manchester City, West Ham and Southampton lead the dishonor roll this weekend.
The Bad Points Table: Manchester United 22; Liverpool 18; Spurs 18; Manchester City 18; Everton 14; Southampton 14, Arsenal 13; Chelsea 12; Newcastle 9; Swansea City 7; Stoke City 6; Sunderland 6; Aston Villa 5; West Ham 5; Burnley 3; Hull City 3; QPR 2; and Crystal Palace 2.
Player of the Week – Wayne Rooney scored a brace this weekend but his performance really didn’t impress a great deal (one of them was from the spot and he wasn’t the one who earned the penalty, just the one who converted it). We’re going to go off the beaten path with Glenn Murray. Sure, he also picked up a red card but he got a brace and it could have been more. Big day for the Palace forward.
My Favorite Things – Another Coutinho’s rocket with Jordan Henderson joining him…Sergio Aguero’s reverse pass for the assist on Dzeko’s goal…Most everything Santi Cazorla did…Tom Carroll subbing for Gylfi Sigurdsson……That Tony Pulis magic…
My Least Favorite Things – Angel Di Maria’s (lack of) form…Phil Jagielka’s powers of redirection…Southampton’s flaccid attack…Everton’s follow-up to their big aggregate Europa Cup win...Bad weather keeping me from watching the League Cup Final live on my TV (I caught some on my tablet) and from recording the NBC Sports Network Premier League Download on The Invincibles (the one drawback of DirecTV).
What did we find out? Liverpool have joined the battle in a big way and City are fading – certainly from the title race and at least into the general realm of danger for the top four.
What’s Next? And we’re right back at it on Tuesday and Wednesday Tottenham vs. giant killers Swansea and Manchester United’s mediocre form going on the road to Newcastle. At the bottom of the table, we’ll see if Villa can overcome the Pulis magic and score a goal at home against the Baggies.
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