Here’s the rough road awaiting rookie QBs Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Jared Goff
Most NFL decision-makers are looking for signs when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. They want comparisons. They want trends. Invariably, they want any piece of information that can help predict what is coming. And they usually end up where Philadelphia Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie landed in October of 2013.
“The better quarterbacks are real consistent,” Lurie said nearly three years ago. “Rookie quarterbacks are not.”
So at the very least, Lurie and the Eagles know what they’re getting into this week when rookie Carson Wentz takes the reins of the franchise. Nobody expects this to be Robert Griffin’s unfathomable rookie campaign in 2012, which seems more unexplainable as time goes on. And it likely won’t come close to Cam Newton’s rookie foray in 2011, when he stuffed box scores and foreshadowed the dynamic player he’d eventually become inside a 6-10 season.
It’s hard to know what any of this season’s rookie starters will be, largely because they all seem far less ready than their predecessors. No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff won’t dress for his first NFL game, relegated to the No. 3 spot on his quarterback depth chart. The last quarterback picked No. 1 overall who started his rookie season third on the depth chart was JaMarcus Russell in 2007. And that was due to a contract holdout. The last time a rookie quarterback went from No. 3 to No. 1 on the depth chart in one day – as Wentz did last week – it was, well, never. And the last time a rookie fourth-round quarterback started a season-opener for a franchise? Kyle Orton for the Chicago Bears in 2005. He won 10 games that season – with a quarterback rating of 59.7.
Like Lurie said, when a team leans on a rookie quarterback, it typically gets something inconsistent. There might be some good. There likely will be a lot of bad.
Here’s a look at what will shape the jobs for three rookie quarterbacks – including two who start Sunday, and a third who will get there (eventually) …
Carson Wentz’s shaky support
The Wentz situation is intriguing because it comes after months of the Eagles brass playing up a far different plan, one that aimed at keeping Wentz at the No. 3 spot as long as necessary. But as we’ve seen with the Eagles this offseason, trade offers can alter plans dramatically. That’s precisely what happened with Wentz’s growth design. In fairness, the Minnesota Vikings gave up far more for starter Sam Bradford (a first- and fourth-round pick) than anyone else was willing to pay. That afforded general manager Howie Roseman to once again wield the significant power he has been given since the departure of the Chip Kelly regime. That power doesn’t stop at trades, either, according to two sources familiar with the Eagles. The sources said Roseman and Lurie both played a role in Wentz being named the starter for Week 1, adding some context to the “collaborative” decision-making that has been championed by the brain trust since the hiring of new coach Doug Pederson.
Regardless of who made the final call on Wentz, there is significant risk surrounding the decision. The coaching staff was already concerned about the right tackle spot without Lane Johnson, who is expected to have a 10-game performance-enhancement-drugs suspension upheld in the coming weeks. Once Johnson is ruled out (if/when that finally occurs), left guard Allen Barbre is expected to shift to right tackle, elevating rookie Isaac Seumalo into Barbre’s starting guard spot. Suddenly, an experienced veteran offensive line has two concerns: a right tackle who is playing out of his natural position, and a rookie starting at left guard. While this isn’t a disaster, it’s less than ideal when you place a rookie under center who was preparing for Weber State at this time last year.
Beyond the offensive line, the reliability of the skill position pieces surrounding Wentz is open for debate. Wideout Jordan Matthews has been mercurial. Nelson Agholor has been underwhelming. Josh Huff is likely on his last chance to break through. And Dorial Green-Beckham is starting over after failing to live up to the discipline and effort expected by the Tennessee Titans’ new regime. The running backs? It’s a rotation between Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles that hasn’t displayed the ability to carry a team. Arguably the best thing going for Wentz is tight end Zach Ertz, who will likely become his favorite target very quickly.
Add it all up and the coaching staff has a lot of work ahead. Expect an offensive game plan geared toward max protection, running the football and throwing shorter, quicker passes. Keeping Wentz from getting beaten up early will be a top priority, and there will be an abundance of pressure on new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to keep games manageable in the early going.
Dak Prescott’s wealth of riches
As much as the grand plan in Philadelphia has been shaped by trade offers, the larger picture in Dallas continues to be warped by Tony Romo’s injuries. But unlike Wentz’s situation with the Eagles, Dak Prescott will be surrounded by an embarrassment of commodities capable of shouldering the burden of a rookie quarterback. He also got what Wentz didn’t in the preseason: three games of significant snaps, many of which took place with the first-team offense. And he responded with a glimmering preseason line: a 78 percent completion rate, seven total touchdowns against zero turnovers and a 137.8 quarterback rating. All of which is now meaningless with the start of the regular season.
It would be absurd to expect Prescott to continue that level of play into the regular season. He faced almost no complex defensive looks in the preseason. Coverage concepts were rarely disguised. Pass rushing schemes were mostly conventional. And a portion of Prescott’s success was rolled up against backups. In a metaphorical sense, Prescott was being asked to solve simple math in the preseason. Now he’s graduating into calculus. That’s the difference in what Prescott will face. That said, he has a bonus that won’t change heading in the regular season: playmakers.
When the Cowboys’ staff broke down film of Prescott in the preseason, it saw a cast that was helping Prescott make plays. That sounds simple, but the reality is that the best rookie quarterback seasons in the NFL often feature another dominant player – or several players – who raise their level of performance to help compensate for a quarterback’s inexperience. Go back and look at Robert Griffin’s 2012 season with the Washington Redskins. You’ll see running back Alfred Morris putting up 1,613 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in the best season of his NFL life. Or look at Cam Newton’s 2011 rookie season with the Carolina Panthers. You’ll see Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combine for 3,539 yards rushing and receiving.
Like Griffin and Newton – and unlike Wentz – Prescott has a significant number of proven commodities across his starting unit who will help. His offensive line is the best in the NFL. Wideout Dez Bryant is a top-five player at his position. Tight end Jason Witten is among the NFL’s most reliable security blankets. Even No. 2 receiver Terrance Williams is a solid emerging player who has taken a step forward each season. And to polish it off, the backfield has Ezekiel Elliott (an early favorite for rookie of the year), the aforementioned Morris (who is still reliable when healthy) and Lance Dunbar (who is among the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL when healthy).
All of this will translate into a Dallas plan that won’t be quite as conservative as that in Philadelphia. Instead, Dallas will run the ball heavily and allow Prescott to do what he did in the preseason: pick his big-play passing spots with veteran skill position players, while occasionally (maybe rarely) using his feet to cause damage.
Jared Goff’s complete unknown
We could start with Goff’s supporting cast, but it’s more appropriate to begin with when Goff will actually be ready to start a game. That might not be this season at all. But that won’t stop it from happening. Not with the Los Angeles Rams having traded so much to move up for Goff. And not with Case Keenum and his one-year contract basically guaranteeing Goff the unchallenged starting position next season. All of this comes down to two factors: the long-term picture and the optics of gambling most of a draft to acquire a centerpiece. If Goff fails to start games this season, the Rams will have lost on both fronts. And ownership will take notice, too.
The latter part of that is why Goff won’t be the No. 3 quarterback beyond Week 1. Much was made about Goff being inactive in his first NFL game, but there is a design in that move. Training camp was rough for Goff. He had some nice moments, but for the most part he showed there is a lot of development left ahead. It’s like that for all rookie quarterbacks, but Goff’s status as the No. 1 overall pick makes it seem more concerning.
The Rams putting Goff at No. 3 for the first week accomplishes several things. It takes away some pressure to move him into Keenum’s starting slot quickly. It sends the message that there is a lot of work left ahead and knocks down expectations several pegs. It also keeps those expectations in check when Week 2 rolls around and Goff is elevated to the backup slot. It makes clear that Goff’s elevation is more part of a deliberate plan than him having suddenly turned a corner. And it gives the staff the ability to do what some believe it has wanted to do all along: Keep Goff on the bench for at least the first four weeks of the season.
But will he be ready to start a game after Week 4? Will he be ready by Week 6? Maybe after the Week 8 bye? That’s the unknown in the equation. The truth is, Goff may never be ready this season. But like Wentz and Prescott, the logic of a larger mission will dictate that he’s going to have to take the reins. Even if Keenum turns the brain trust on its ear and puts up good performances against the Seattle Seahawks (Week 2) and the Arizona Cardinals (Week 4), the Rams will likely start giving Goff practice snaps with the starting offense no later than November.
What Goff will have around him is another matter entirely. If anything, the Rams’ offensive talent base falls short of both the Eagles and the Cowboys. But it also has Todd Gurley, who is arguably a more dominant talent than any single offensive player in Dallas or Philadelphia. And from the moment they traded for the No. 1 pick, the Rams made it no secret their centerpiece quarterback was going to be handing it off a lot. That won’t change, no matter how the offensive line is playing or how the pass-catching talent develops. Goff will get his chance eventually. It will simply come along more slowly than everyone assumed and he won’t be asked to do much.
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