Fantasy NBA Rookie Rankings
What a difference a month makes. The bad teams became a lot worse and now we have a good idea which teams are sellers. The Knicks and Wolves have won a grand total of two games combined since Thanksgiving and they’re leading the arms race for tanking right now. By the same token, some buyers might be willing to part with some of their rookies to strike up a deal.
Also, a lot of rookies have turned the corner, which is nothing new because most of them are slow starters. Last season, I did a column about how rookies tend to get more value after the break as well as more minutes. You can read the whole column here, or you can just trust me that the results were that a rookie gets 2.7 minutes per game more after the break with about 1.5 more rounds of value in standard leagues (there is a lot of cool stuff in that column because it took forever!).
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Here is how I rank the rookies for fantasy value the rest of the season. Again, it’s fantasy value, so I’m not saying Jusuf Nurkic is the No. 1 rookie in reality.
Jusuf Nurkic - This one is pretty simple here. If Nurkic learns how to keep his fouls down, he could emerge as a No. 1 fantasy center. J.J. Hickson is certainly more of a power forward and the Nuggets would also have to play Darrell Arthur at small forward more if Wilson Chandler is dealt. That opens up a ton of minutes for Nurkic.
He’s held steady at around 22 minutes per game in the 2015 portion of the season, averaging 11.8 points, 7.6 boards, 1.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.4 blocks on 51.0 percent from the field and 75.0 percent from the line. That’s early-round value right there.
He did foul out in his second start on Friday, which came against DeMarcus Cousins — the league leader in fouls drawn per game. Nurkic’s minutes won’t see a sharp increase, but they should climb to around 26 per game, which is all he needs to be a stud due to the blocks.
Andrew Wiggins - Usually, rookies won’t start turning the corner until February. However, Wiggins has really picked it up in his last 10 and became the third teenager ever to have six consecutive 20-point games during that span (Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James). Here is what his shot chart looks like in his last 10 (49.4 percent from the field):
While those mid-range numbers are not great due to volume, that’s a really terrific shot chart. The big thing is his work at the rim. A rookie making 68.5 percent at the rim on 545 attempts (34.2 percent of his total) is superstar stuff. In fact, that’s better than LeBron James' season percentage (64.9 percent). The scoring is certainly trending up, especially with a solid 23.2 usage rate in this 10-game stretch.
Besides the scoring, the other stats are there, too. Wiggins averaged 4.7 boards, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.2 triples to go with 75.0 percent from the line in his last 10. The only reason why Nurkic is higher is because blocks have more value in fantasy leagues than anything else. I think Wiggins is easily the top guy in points leagues and perhaps in eight-category too.
Marcus Smart - He’s not going to be a fantasy savior, but he’s starting to come around since the Jeff Green trade. Smart has played 30 minutes per game in his last three, averaging 9.7 points, 3.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.7 triples and 1.3 turnovers on 47.8 percent from the field. That’s only good for 13th-round value, but he made 74.1 percent from the line on the season and managed to make just 40.0 percent in his last three. If he shot his season average, he’d be near the top 100.
Smart is not involved in the offense a heck of a lot and is playing off the ball a ton. That comes as a surprise because he was a horrible shooting guard in summer league and he was at his best with the ball in his hands. Obviously, that was the case in Oklahoma State too.
The Celtics are bringing him along slowly and it should only be a matter of time before he takes over at the point. Evan Turner is not the answer. He could become a top 75-100 guy, which is fine.
Nikola Mirotic - For some reason, coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t want to play Mirotic extended minutes. Sure, he has squandered his chances, but the Bulls tend to play well on defense when he’s out there. The problem is, he won’t get minutes until his coach has his back. What’s more, why is Tony Snell playing big minutes now?
Anyway, based on the past couple weeks, it would appear Mirotic is going to need Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol or Taj Gibson to miss time in order to have a significant impact. The allure to his fantasy value is that he’s not a middle-of-the-road option when he’s out there. If he gets 30 minutes, he’s an early-round guy and a mid-round guy at worst. If you're in a league with a deep bench, he's arguably the best stash you could make.
K.J. McDaniels - The good news is that his offense is starting to come around. In his last four, McDaniels made 55.6 percent from the field and 88.9 percent from the line for averages of 10.5 points, 3.5 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.3 blocks, 0.8 steals and 1.0 triples. In that span, that’s good for eighth-round value despite turning the ball over way too many times at 2.5 per game (he’s top-75 in eight-category leagues in that span).
The bad news is that it’s a little fluky. K.J. made 57.1 percent of his treys above the break in that stretch, which is totally unsustainable. He also was at 71.4 percent in the paint, too. That won’t continue. Still, this surge is nice to see and his blocks haven’t increased much lately. The 76ers could unload Tony Wroten and that will open up even more minutes for him. He could be a mid-round guy in eight-category leagues with the blocks. He should also put up better numbers than Mirotic while the Bulls are healthy.
Nerlens Noel - He can’t shoot. Noel made just 42.4 percent from the field on the season to go with just 50.7 percent at the line. Plus, he has 2.2 turnovers per game. He’s basically the big-man version of Tony Wroten in fantasy leagues.
If you played in a league that didn’t have those factors count against you, you’d be looking at Noel as a seventh-round guy. However, he’s sitting at just 14th-round value on the season, and his shooting numbers are getting worse. Here’s a look at the types of shots he’s taken in the past 10:
Yeah, about those jump shots and layups. No thanks.
Cleanthony Early - It would appear Carmelo Anthony is starting to come to grips that he’ll need surgery. This is a bit of a tangent to talk about Melo, but his shutdown has everything to do with the young Knicks.
Melo is routinely among the leaders in shots per game, he’s a solid rebounder, has 3.1 assists per game this season and of course plays 36.1 minutes per game. What’s more, why the heck would the Knicks play him? They have over $34 million of their salary cap invested into two guys they don’t even play, Amare Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani. They knew this season would be bad. They just didn’t think it would be this bad. Or did they? Maybe Zen Master P, Phil Jackson, had this level of tanking envisioned.
As for Early, he’s shown some promise since he was turned loose in his last five. On the surface, he smells like hot garbage. Early made just 39.0 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from the line in his last five. He also turned the ball over 1.8 times per game to go with 1.4 assists per game in 24.8 minutes.
On the bright side, he’s attempted 3.4 treys per game and has 1.2 steals per game. Early is going to be a lot like Corey Brewer for getting steals and treys while doing some easy scoring in transition. If he can hold his averages to 1.8 per game in each category, that’ll give him a low-end floor in standard leagues. The new Knicks regime made him their first draft pick, so they probably want to see where he fits.
Langston Galloway - The same thing for Early goes for Galloway. He's a better ball-handler than Early and he actually did well with steals and triples in the D-League. Plus, if for some reason the Knicks can unload Jose Calderon -- I don't think they will -- Galloway would run the offense more.
Rodney Hood - This one is all about treys. On the season, 45.3 percent of his shot attempts are catch-and-shoot treys, which is actually trending up with 49.0 percent in his last nine. Hood potentially could take five attempts from deep per game and should have some other stats to go along with it. He'd be higher, but he has two foot injuries already and can't stay healthy.
Bojan Bogdanovic - He's really picked it up over his last two with back-to-back games of scoring in double figures. He's doing a much better job of moving without the ball and he hasn't been gashed on defense quite as much based what I saw in those two games. He should stick in the starting lineup.
Elfrid Payton - He’s been a heck of a lot better and it all has to do with shot selection. Here’s a look at his shot chart from the last 15 games in which he made 43.8 percent from the field:
The big thing here is that he’s taking 50 percent of his shots at the rim. Outside of that, it’s really all negative. Not making at least 52 percent at the rim is a really bad number and obviously everything else on this chart is horrible too. He’s shooting a combined 32.1 percent on all of his jumpers on the season, which is a touch better that expected.
Besides the scoring, his assists are up to 6.1 per game in that span to go with 1.5 steals, 3.9 boards and 2.1 turnovers. This is probably close to as great as he’ll be this season and yet he only turned in No. 166 value in nine-category leagues in this "hot" streak. He’s a lot like Michael Carter-Williams to a smaller degree (MCW made just 26.7 percent from the field in his last seven, which I just had to throw in here). Payton’s ceiling is not there in standard leagues.
Gary Harris - If Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler are gone, Harris will get minutes.
Cory Jefferson - Kevin Garnett is suspended for Wednesday against the Grizzlies. After a couple months of knocking down treys, Mirza Teletovic has gone cold. Teletovic also was one of the best fourth-quarter shooters last season, but he's clearly in coach Lionel Hollins' doghouse.
Well, it could be time for Jefferson now. He played 24 minutes on Monday with seven points, four boards, one block and one 3-pointer. He’s actually takes treys and isn’t a bad shot blocker either. Like their owner, the Nets are likely to become sellers just because they’re in such bad shape. They really need some assets and it makes sense to start now because Deron Williams is a flop.
For daily, I probably wouldn’t use Jefferson tomorrow against Memphis because of the bad matchup. He has per-36 averages of 12.9 points, 7.9 boards, 1.2 blocks and 0.4 triples. If he gets to 24 and increases those a bit, he’d be a deep-league guy.
Zach LaVine - The Wolves are getting their guys back and the return of Ricky Rubio (ankle) will hurt LaVine a lot. Plus, the rookie is a bigger on-ball project that I thought.
Jerami Grant - He's coming around now, but it should be interesting to see how he fares when Philly is full strength. Grant won't do much besides score based on his college averages of 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks. Interestingly, he has the same block and steal averages in just 15.9 minutes per game in the NBA, so that has fluke written all over it. Plus, the 3-pointers are a surprise because he didn't make a since one at Syracuse last season.
Joe Ingles - While he has been a pleasant surprise, the Jazz like Hood for his ability to space the floor. They’ll need that with Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors.
Furkan Aldemir - Mr. Rebound! He has a 22.6 total rebound rate over his last five. He can’t score, though.
Dante Exum - The low assist percentage is really troubling with two dime-less games in his last four. Plus, he’s made just 31.0 percent from the field in his last five.
JaKarr Sampson - He’s made 71.4 percent from the field in his last five on 4.2 shots per game. Gotta give him props for heating up after a terrible start.
Devyn Marble - He is at his peak value right now. Very impressive with the steals and solid scoring numbers, though.
Elijah Millsap - He’s 27, so a breakout would be shock. He isn't Nelson Cruz. Yes, that was a random baseball reference.
Aaron Gordon - His foot injury should heal soon.
Tarik Black - He is the reason the Lakers won’t play Jordan Hill huge minutes anymore.
Jordan Clarkson - If Kobe gets shut down, he’d already consistently be in the rotation. Clarkson also loves to dominate the ball.
James Young - Coach Brad Stevens will come around and play him at some point. Young is still very rare offensively.
Erick Green - If the Nuggets unload guys and Ty Lawson gets hurt, Green would be on the radar.
James Ennis - Luol Deng has to be dealt or miss time because Ennis only plays small forward. It looked like he could play some SG at summer league.
Glenn Robinson III - He’s a major project, but the Wolves are unloading guys.
Nick Johnson - You know the Rockets are going to make a trade at some point.
Kostas Papnikolaou - He has some value now, but the Rockets are finally getting healthy.
Johnny O’Bryant - His low-end value is almost dried up.
Noah Vonleh - He has his chance right now and still can’t do anything. Could be a nice keeper.
Patrick Christopher - The Jazz have a lot so-so options.
T.J. Warren - A supreme talent, but needs either a team change or a few injuries.
Damjan Rudez - He had his chance a month ago. It didn’t work out.
Shanye Whittington - He needs two more injuries.
Jordan Adams - The Grizzlies don’t really have many more assets to trade along with Adams. Plus, there really isn’t anything else to trade for.
Spencer Dinwiddie - The Pistons playing well really hurts Dinwiddie.
C.J. Wilcox - Coach Doc Rivers drafted him knowing he’d be buried on the depth chart.
P.J. Hairston - Making 32.1 percent from the field won’t get it done.
Nik Stauskas - Ben McLemore is playing a lot better.
Shabazz Napier - He had a nice little run while it last a month ago.
Mitch McGary - One of the stars at summer league, but he needs Kendrick Perkins to go away.
Doug McDermott - Nikola Mirotic has eaten most of the available minutes.
Tyler Ennis - The Suns will need to trade him to give him value.
Adreian Payne - The potential is there for the 3-point shooting big man. He just needs two injuries to get in the rotation. Also, how good are the Hawks??
