Dose: Al Jefferson Goes Down

Happy New Year’s Eve everybody! I hope you all make it a serious point not to drink and drive tonight, and that you’re having great fantasy success. Due to travel and work schedules, the Bruski Breakdown is going on a one-week hiatus, but we’ll be back on the other side of 2015 and ready for the remaining 60 percent of the schedule. I’ll still be checking in with tomorrow’s Dose so you’ll have something to read as you dial the numbers to call in sick for work.

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

The big injury news last night belonged to Big Al Jefferson, who got slapped with a four-week minimum timetable due to his groin injury. Ouch. I really thought the Hornets squeezed way too much out of him last season in their run up to the playoffs and I’m a bit surprised something like this didn’t happen sooner. Big men with his mileage that handle that type of load, with the various nicks and dings he’s gotten over the years, are bound to break down.

This leaves an interesting group behind so let’s take a look at all of them. Bismack Biyombo has been a non-entity in fantasy leagues this year with any value being negated by a 44 percent mark from the line. A pure minute-increase into 30-plus mpg could vault him into low-end value but neither aspect of that statement is a great bet.

Cody Zeller is your best all-around pickup with the best risk/upside combo but only if he takes not just one but two steps forward in terms of utilization and activity. Zeller is barely a top-200 play in his 23.3 mpg this season but Big Al steals significantly from two of Zeller’s core competencies (scoring and boarding) – so it’s possible he breaks free from season-norms and into a mid-to-late round return this next month. Or not.

Marvin Williams has about two weeks under his belt with late-round value and he’s been trending upward since Jefferson’s groin started slowing him down, Zeller followed suit, and Lance Stephenson hit the skids. He fits the mold of a player that Steve Clifford will look to rely on for veteran leadership but he doesn’t bend the defense and they just lost their best player in that respect. From a gaming perspective, trying to ride the Williams train for 4-6 weeks in a late-round expectation doesn’t sound as excited as taking a chance on Zeller or even Noah Vonleh, but it might end up being the better play.

Vonleh will be called up from the D-League and he represents a puncher’s chance at a dynamic fantasy play, but I’d give him a 5-10% chance at panning out for owners in 12-14 team leagues. He flashed a little versatility at Indiana but by most reports he was raw as hell as recently as the beginning of the year, which started with a hernia injury.

Alec Burks’ was the owner of the other serious injury from yesterday but it wasn’t too surprising, as he was finally ruled out for the rest of the year because he needs shoulder surgery. In the past, the main cogs have all picked up a small portion of his production and it has pushed guys like Enes Kanter and Trey Burke into must-own positions in 12-team leagues. Rodney Hood had a very versatile Monday outing but fell back into old patterns last night with just four points, one block and not much else in 19 foul-plagued minutes. Hood’s season-long production has been terrible and the only bankable asset he brings is 3-point shooting, but he should be watched since the Jazz just got thin on the wing.

No, I’m not considering dropping Rudy Gobert after his zero-point, five-rebound, one-block night. And while we’re at it I’m not dropping Kyle O’Quinn because a four-game sample returned top 200-240 value when he’s at his rock bottom. Gobert has returned top 100-130 value in 18.6 mpg and O’Quinn is at top 90-110 in 19.9 mpg. O’Quinn has something like a 50-game sample at those levels or better dating back to last year and Gobert looks like an even better player with incredible upside. So, no, your terrible four-game sample of Kyle O’Quinn at his worst doesn’t bother me in the slightest and I will take all of your drops. It’s math, upside, patience, etc.

I will say this though; you always have to watch out for Orlando injury reporting. It’s non-existent so owners of all players should pay a little bit more attention than they normally would.

LeBron James (knee) and Shawn Marion (ankle) did not play last night and neither injury seems too serious. Kyrie Irving returned to action and had a big night as mentioned in the Big Numbers, and Kevin Love left the game with back spasms and did not return after 24 minutes of action. Tristan Thompson (18 points, 13 rebounds, 0-for-5 FTs, zero steals/blocks, 42 minutes) is the obvious beneficiary of the Anderson Varejao injury and anything that hinders Love will also help solidify his minutes, but pardon me if I don’t drop anybody of real value to get my hands on Thompson’s late-round best case scenario. As mentioned here a bunch, you have to punt nearly half your categories to make him work and that’s not smart.

Wilson Chandler (17 minutes, nine points) is being called day-to-day after suffering a quad injury in last night’s game against the Lakers. Brian Shaw turned to his bench and though he does that quite often, it didn’t leave a great barometer of what to expect in Chandler’s absence, if he misses time. Any absence may do more to spring Nate Robinson loose into some late-round value than anything else, and Robinson had a nice night going with 13 points, six assists, two steals, two blocks and a three before getting ejected. Overall, there are no great moves to make unless news hits that Chandler is going to miss more than a game or two.

Ed Davis suffered a broken nose in last night’s game and so far he hasn’t been ruled out of any action going forward. He scored seven points with four rebounds, two assists and one block in 30 minutes, which could be a sign that Kobe Bryant’s return is going to hurt him.

Kobe was super-mellow in his first game back on Sunday and Davis continued his hot streak, but even though Kobe was efficient last night he certainly handled the ball a lot more and Davis sputtered. Davis also racked up five fouls to complicate matters, and regardless I think owners want to see one more game before pitching him back to the pile. He has solid mid-round value over the last two weeks, though last night’s slop made him a borderline late-round guy over the last week. Stay tuned on the nose.

Nene sprained his ankle last night and Kris Humphries is once again worth a look, but don’t break your neck to add him.

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

Tyson Chandler (back) returned to action with two points, 12 boards and one block in 22 minutes, and Monta Ellis (ankle) played as expected with 20 points, two assists, four steals and a three in the Mavs’ blowout win. Chandler may need a game or two to get back into form and as usual his health should be monitored, but owners can use both guys as they normally would.

LaMarcus Aldridge got back on the floor after his recent bout with an illness, scoring 23 points with 13 rebounds and one block. Hopefully the time off gave him a chance to recharge the engines, but often times the flu doesn’t work like that. We’ll see. Joel Freeland continued to bring in the big minutes as Robin Lopez’s replacement in the starting lineup, grabbing 12 rebounds to go with one steal and two blocks. Chris Kaman finally got on the board with 10 and eight to go with a block in 17 minutes off the bench. I’d expect Kaman to start stealing bread from Freeland slowly as we go, as both are low-end values at best right now in 12-team leagues.

Brook Lopez has been active and playing but he finally got back in owners’ good graces with 29 points, five rebounds and two blocks in a return to the starting lineup. There will be some panic with Mason Plumlee’s 17-minute outing, which resulted in six points, eight rebounds, one steal and one block which actually isn’t that bad. In short, I’m nowhere near dropping the guy as his percentages are clearly going to regress in the right direction for owners over the long haul and his upside lies in the middle rounds if he can merely stay in the ballpark of last year’s stat set.

There could be some bumps here while Lopez and Kevin Garnett are still playing but who long do these guys want to grind things out for this Nets team? How long ‘can’ they grind it out? Then you consider that the Nets can probably deal Deron Williams to Sacramento if they include Mason Plumlee and they’re unwilling to, and it gets hard to see Lionel Hollins keeping him tethered to the bench all season long. There’s way too much to like here and I’ll be going against our blurbs that have downplayed his value.

PICKUPS

I got aggressive on stashing Jodie Meeks in my two big money leagues and I couldn’t be happier, as evidenced by last night’s 34-point, nine-trey explosion. He was a top-50 value last season and he did a lot of ball-handling for Mike D’Antoni’s Lakers to get there, but I’m pretty sure that was part of the appeal for Detroit to pay him like they did. He’s certainly in their plans and with Josh Smith gone a ton of touches opened up. Stop what you’re doing and add the man.

I also added D.J. Augustin in the same big-money league (deeper 12-teams), and last night he had 11 points, five boards and 10 assists in 30 minutes. I think the departure of Smith will help Brandon Jennings (five points, two assists, 18 minutes) and he looked great on Sunday with 25 points, so this isn’t a drop moment for Jennings, but I do think that Augustin is going to take a role similar to the one he had for Chicago last year, and a late-round expectation could end up hitting the mark.

Tony Wroten typically hasn’t been a favorite of mine in standard leagues but I noticed we weren’t that high on him in 8-cat formats, and we should at least have him owned. He’s returning mid-round value when on the floor and that’s what he has been producing, too. He played 20 minutes off the bench last night with 10 points, one three, three assists, two steals, one block and five turnovers. His percentages are terrible but he’s one of a handful of guys that can play and he handles the ball a lot.

Marreese Speights took advantage of the Sixers with 23 points, four rebounds, four assists and four blocks, but it’s also about time he got his due in 12-team leagues since he’s producing well enough on a standalone basis to be owned. The fit just seems to work as he benefits from having great teammates, Andrew Bogut’s health status will probably always be in question, and the Warriors will be on the right end of plenty of blowouts to float his value. There will be ugly nights but the law of large numbers is starting to kick in.

Ronnie Price has finally punched through what appeared to be his glass ceiling, scoring a season-high 18 points with three rebounds, four assists, two steals and five threes in 33 minutes last night, while also returning solid mid-round value over the last two weeks.

On the other hand, Jeremy Lin disappeared again with four points, four assists and two boards on 1-of-6 shooting in 15 minutes. Of course, if you asked me at the beginning of the year if Price would be a factor I might have said maybe watching the preseason games, but then dismissed it as preseason stuff and moved on. And as for Lin, I’ve always thought he would simply plod his way to a mid-round value because he has no competition for minutes at point guard, with a lack of team-wide depth and Kobe Bryant fighting off father time.

But make no mistake, Price is outplaying Lin with gritty and often dirty defense and now he’s being assertive on the offensive end. By styles, Price is a Kobe- and Byron Scott-type player and Lin is something else, and when his shot isn’t falling Scott isn’t afraid to go away from him. Lin still has enough season-long value at 26.6 mpg to strongly consider a hold, but don’t sleep on Price just because of what you thought he was. I’d consider him a stronger ‘low-level’ add for owners that need a guard in 12-team formats.

THE MIDDLE

Lou Williams (seven points, 1-of-10 FGs) is a boom or bust play and I’m not sure he’s a Sixth Man of the Year candidate like we hear in some places, but when you iron all the wrinkles out he’s a late-round play probably until DeMar DeRozan gets back. The same goes for James Johnson (14 points, 11 boards, one steal) in his own wonky way.

Henry Sims (19 points, seven boards, no steals or blocks) now has about six games under his belt with late-round value, but he’s not very good and the only thing he truly has going for him is that Nerlens Noel is dealing with an ankle injury. I’m actually more interested in Furkan Aldemir (four points, eight boards, two steals) and it’s because the Sixers actually gave him a fairly solid contract. To be clear, you have to be a little bit crazy like me to go in on Aldemir in 12-14 team leagues, while Sims is worth a look if you need a big man – just don’t expect much.

DROPS

Dion Waiters scored nine points with three rebounds, four assists, two steals, one three and hit 30 percent of his shots. I’m not sure I’d break my back to add or hold him even if the Big Three were going to miss multiple weeks.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored four points with not much else and he’s going to be a threat to fall out of the top-300 with Jodie Meeks set to push him further down the rankings.