Can Man City continue miraculous turnaround in Champions League?
On Wednesday, Manchester City can likely qualify for the final 16 in the Champions League with a positive result in Rome. In addition, the Citizens are within three points of first-place Chelsea in the Premier League. But just a month ago, City's season needed a miracle.
On November 8, down two goals to one away to Queens Park Rangers, Man City seemed on its way to a nine-point gap in the Premier League. Sergio Aguero scored late to secure a vital point, but with the Citizens sitting in third place behind Southampton, talk turned to how far ahead of the pack Chelsea would finish.
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In Europe, the situation was far graver for Man City. Three days before extracting a point at QPR, CSKA Moscow had come to the Etihad Stadium and left a 2-1 winner. Two red cards made matters worse as Yaya Toure, the reigning three-time African Player of the Year, received a straight red to incur a three-match ban. Toure had scored before losing his head, but by the fulltime whistle, Man City sat at the bottom of a treacherous Group E without its top midfielder.
Even critics who correctly pointed out Toure's consistent underperforming in Europe understood that the Ivorian was central to Manchester City's recent trophy collection. If City was going to make noise in the Champions League, Toure would have to at least beat a drum, if not altogether lead the marching band.
Then, the month of Manchester magic began.
First, the Citizens sorted their affairs at home with a 2-1 victory over Swansea City. Toure, who was no longer available in Europe, focused his attention on the domestic campaign and netted the match-winner against the Swans.
Next, Bayern Munich arrived at the Etihad for Matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage. So strong were the Germans that they scored twice with 10 men to take a 2-1 lead. City's campaign looked to be in utter shambles, but Aguero would run forward and take over the match.
The small but speedy Argentine scored once in the final five minutes of normal time and again in stoppage time to rescue a 3-2 victory for Manchester City. Having already slotted home a penalty for Man City's opening goal, Aguero's second-half double provided him a memorable European hat trick. More importantly, it provided Man City with hope of advancing to the knockout rounds going into the final day of group play against AS Roma.
Group E is a complicated mess. The easy part: Bayern Munich has advanced and secured the top spot. As such, only one last-16 berth remains. With five points each, Roma, Man City and CSKA Moscow all enter Wednesday with hopes of advancing.
CSKA Moscow has the unenviable task of going to Munich and facing Bayern. A win for the Russians and any result other than a Roma win in Manchester would mean CSKA would advance. CSKA beating Bayern in Munich would be a shock regardless of whether or not manager Pep Guardiola puts out a weakened side, so the Russians face the toughest route to the final 16.
For Roma, the permutations get a bit more complicated. If the Italians win, they advance. If they play to a scoreless draw, they would still advance provided CSKA Moscow does not pull the massive upset in Germany. However, if Roma and City play to a scoring draw and CSKA loses, the Romans would be out and City would be through. Playing at home, Roma has to feel confident.
Considering where Manchester City was only a month earlier, the glimmer of hope seems far stronger these days. Provided CSKA does not beat Bayern, a win for City would be good enough to get the club over the European hump that ended former manger Roberto Mancini's tenure. Also, a scoring draw would give City the edge over Roma and increase the English team's chances.
The rumors of manager Manuel Pellegrini's ouster have subsided for the time being. Still, City's miraculous month could be all for naught.
The two players that have led the recent resurgence – Aguero and Toure – are expected to miss Wednesday's game at Stadio Olimpico. Toure remains suspended and would even miss the first leg of the round of 16 should City qualify. Aguero, whose superhuman effort gave City this thread of hope in Europe, went down in a heap after hurting his knee in the weekend match against Everton.
The Argentine had five goals in five Champions League matches to go along with his Premier League leading tally of 14 goals. To say that Aguero's absence is a loss would be understating what he has meant to the club since arriving from Atletico Madrid. Without Aguero, City would be out of Europe and nowhere near the top of the Premier League title race.
Also, David Silva and club captain Vincent Kompany remain sidelined for the Citizens, so Manchester is without four first-choice starters for the crucial tie.
Without Toure and Aguero, in particular, the simple task of winning a match on Wednesday seems exponentially more complex. But if Manchester City can earn a result in Rome without its two biggest stars, the miraculous Mancunians may be in line to do much more than merely qualify for the Champions League's knockout stage.
Shahan Ahmed is a soccer columnist for Yahoo Sports. He has previously written about the 2014 World Cup and 2013 Confederations Cup and regularly provides opinions on the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga. Follow Shahan on Twitter: @ShahanLA
