Best Ball Plays: AFC
Of all the formats of fantasy, “Best Ball” may be the purest. You draft your team and then … do nothing. There are no waivers, no weekly lineup decisions. Your players play and the machine determines your best lineup. There is no 5PM agony over the wrong 11AM decisions. Matt Asiata doubled up Matt Forte in points this week? Asiata was your RB1. Aaron Rodgers tossed only one touchdown while Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six? Fitzpatrick is your quarterback. Marshawn Lynch was a last-minute scratch? Enter Fred Jackson. You’re rewarded for having the strongest and deepest team, not necessarily the best injury and matchup luck.
It means you can make draft decisions you might not even consider in standard leagues. Upside can be pursued more vigorously, while Week 1 role is no longer the end all be all. You are not penalized for taking someone who might earn all of their points in 3-4 games instead of spreading them out over 11-12. Instead of never starting someone the right week, you’re always starting them the right week. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at 20 players who profile better in best-ball formats than standard leagues.
Knile Davis
Davis is one of the prototypes when we think “best-ball boost.” Jamaal Charles’ handcuff, Davis lacks consistent, predictable touches. This is always a problem for RB3/4s, but a particularly acute one in Davis’ case. That because he’s a “rhythm back,” someone who doesn’t necessarily wow on 8-10 carries, but gets better as the game drags on and the defense gets tired. With Charles hobbled or sidelined in Weeks 2-4 last season, Davis rushed 70 times for 318 yards. That comes out to 4.54 yards per carry. In all other games as Charles’ caddie, Davis managed just 145 yards on 64 totes (2.41 YPC). Davis can’t be counted on for fantasy production when Charles is healthy, but with Charles increasingly prone to nicks and bruises as he heads into his age-28 season, it stands to reason that Davis could get 2-3 chances to carry the mail in 2015. It will be impossible to predict just when those chances might come, but when they do, Davis is a boom-or-bust back you won’t have to worry about exploding on your bench if you took the best-ball plunge.
Stevie Johnson
Johnson is not a boom-or-bust player. That would imply flash. He’s a slot maven, one who compiles his numbers in steady bunches instead of explosive outbursts. For fantasy owners, this can be a boring quality, one that relegates sure hands to the bench in favor of big-play promise. It’s why at some point over the past two years you’ve probably played Justin Hunter over Julian Edelman. But best ball removes aesthetic considerations. Johnson will be on your bench for his 4-43 siestas, and in your lineup for his 7-78-2 breakouts. Johnson was already bound to soak up targets over the middle of the field for a team replacing Eddie Royal, but even more so now that Antonio Gates is suspended for the first four games of the season.
Marcus Mariota
Mariota is the league’s next great dual-threat hope. He’s also a rookie coming from a hyper-spread to play for quarterback-killer Ken Whisenhunt. Mariota’s talent is mouthwatering, but he seems destined to struggle as a first-year starter. That doesn’t mean he won’t have big games, it will just be hard to know when they’re coming. This isn’t a concern in best ball, where Mariota’s four-touchdown days — two passing and two rushing — won’t be on your bench behind Tony Romo throwing only one score in a game where Dallas attempts 38 rushes in a 38-17 victory.
Percy Harvin
Injury prone and joined at the hip to reverse offensive mastermind Rex Ryan, Harvin has outlived his usefulness as a WR3. But this is still a special athlete, one who contributes both out of the backfield and as a pass catcher. Somehow only 27 years old, Harvin will pop off for 3-4 huge games if he manages to stay off injured reserve. A hope and a prayer in standard leagues, Harvin is a lottery ticket bound to cash out in best-ball formats.
Marvin Jones
You’re going to own Jones in standard leagues, you’ll just have no idea when to play him. This is a player who established 10-touchdown upside as a 23 year old, only to follow it up by missing all of last season. That’s not to mention the fact that four of Jones’ 2013 scores came in one game. Still only 25, Jones is an explosive talent, one who is vastly superior to Mohamed Sanu. It’s just that, come Week 2, how will you have any idea whether to start Jones or Eric Decker? You won’t. With its after-the-fact seeing eye, best ball will.
Devin Smith
A deep threat if there ever was one, Jones plays faster than his (excellent) 4.42 speed suggests, and bigger than his 6-foot-0 frame should allow. Smith averaged 20.7 yards per catch at Ohio State, and scored 30 touchdowns in 54 games. There’s a reason he was the No. 37 overall pick. There are simply more reasons his production will ebb and flow as a rookie. Smith figures to enter the season no higher than No. 3 on the depth chart, and will be catching passes from the Dalton-ian duo of Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith’s big-play ability explodes off the screen, but he might not even be ownable in standard leagues. Enter best-ball formats, where Smith’s 2-3 huge weeks could come in handy from one of the final spots on your “bench.”
Dan Herron
“Boom” is not a starting-caliber talent, but should remain a factor in the Colts’ pinball offense. New starter Frank Gore is 32, and though a solid pass catcher, was held to just 72 catches in 64 games during the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco. Herron caught 20 passes during Indy’s three-game playoff run last winter, while Andrew Luck’s backs corralled seven touchdowns during the regular season. Herron could have the occasional zero-touch week, but he’ll get the ball for a prolific offense that remains on the rise. Scores are there for the taking for anyone lucky enough to be in Luck’s orbit.
Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett’s selection was met with puzzlement in league circles and cackles on Twitter, but no one is doubting his big-play ability. Dorsett’s seam stretching will be put to use in an offense that’s beginning to resemble The Greatest Show on Turf-era Rams. With so many mouths to feed, Dorsett is going to have weeks where he doesn’t get so much as a target, let alone a touchdown. But the Colts didn’t take Dorsett and his 4.33 speed to let him wallow on the bench. Being asked to learn every receiver position, Dorsett is going to play, and bring some long scores along with him. He’ll be a maddening proposition in standard formats, but an ace-in-the-hole in best-ball leagues.
Owen Daniels
Are you going to trust a 33-year-old (in November) Owen Daniels as your TE1? Probably not. But as a best-ball option, Daniels is ideal as a sure pair of hands who could provide a handful of 7-8 catch performances. Peyton Manning found Julius Thomas for 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and though that’s a rate Daniels can’t hope to approach, this is a quarterback ever-more focused on the short-to-intermediate levels of the field. Playing for the only coach he’s ever known, and one of the greatest signal callers of all time, Daniels has week-winning upside at fantasy’s most-neglected skill position.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo is what best ball is all about. Although he’s staring at a maximum of four starts — and quite possibly fewer — Garoppolo has the supporting cast to make some early-season noise, and can be paired with Tom Brady late. Garoppolo won’t be asked to be Tom Terrific while Brady is suspended, but four touchdowns are never far away when you have Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell as three of your top targets. Garoppolo may only come into play once or twice for your best-ball squad, but how often do 1-2 weeks make the difference in deciding a fantasy champion? Often enough to take a late-round gamble on Garoppolo’s upside.
Danny Woodhead. Stuck in standard-league purgatory thanks to his unpredictable touches and limited role running the ball, Woodhead is nevertheless primed for big weeks as one of the league’s top pass-catching backs.
Justin Hunter. It’s hard to call Hunter “boom or bust” since he’s never really boomed, but the talent is still there. Perhaps Mariota can finally unlock it.
Duke Johnson. Johnson enters a crowded backfield for perhaps the league’s worst offense, but touches are there for the taking. The No. 77 overall pick could make big plays as a pass catcher.
Donte Moncrief. Moncrief’s role was muddled by the selection of Dorsett, but this is a 22-year-old, 6-foot-2 sophomore who went 32/444/3 as a rookie. At the bare minimum, Dorsett should produce 2-3 big-time weeks.
Scott Chandler. Chandler is an older and slower Tim Wright, but also a more-proven commodity. At least get something out of it when Chandler vultures touchdowns from Gronk.
Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB is as raw as raw can be, but boasts a rare size/speed combination. He’s begging to be utilized in red-zone situations.
Marlon Brown. You can’t teach size. Criminally underutilized in 2014, Brown’s 6-foot-5 frame should be put to use in the red zone for a team once again remaking its receiver corps. Brown won’t be consistent, but his scoring upside is real.
Blake Bortles. A dual threat who has supposedly improved at the finer points of quarterbacking, Bortles enters 2015 with a quietly impressive supporting cast. The growing pains should remain, but Bortles has all the tools necessary for big weeks.
Ladarius Green. A physical freak who has never disappointed on a per-touch basis, Green has Kelce-ian upside. Perhaps his production will never equal his hype, but this is a player you take a chance on in leagues where sit/start decisions are out the window.
Ryan Mallett. It’s quite possible Mallett simply isn’t good, but he plays for one of the league’s best offensive coaches, and has DeAndre Hopkins to help create big days. Mallett is a final-round pick who could provide 2-3 weeks of usefulness.
