Analysis: Lions skating on thin ice into B1G Tournament
The roller coaster that has been Penn State hockey’s season is nearing an end, and, with only the Big Ten Tournament remaining on the schedule, it is unknown whether the Nittany Lions will make their first NCAA tournament appearance in program history.
The Lions placed themselves in a precarious position by losing two games to Michigan at Yost Ice Arena last weekend. The Wolverines entered the series having won just four conference games, but defeated Penn State 3-2 on Friday and 4-0 on Saturday.
While their tournament status depends on outcomes across the nation during the season’s final weekend, the nature of the selection process makes it easy to comprehend exactly where the Nittany Lions stand heading into their conference tournament in Detroit as they take on Michigan for the third time in as many games.
The hockey tournament selection committee uses a completely objective numerical process to decide which teams make the 16-team field, unlike the methodology employed by the basketball and football committees. This process is mimicked by the Pairwise rankings, where Penn State currently sits 13th.
Like in most other college sports, hockey also offers an automatic bid to the teams that win each of the six conference tournaments, leaving the potential for stolen bids.
With every conference tournament outside of the Big Ten already in at least the semi-final round, fans can get a sense for just how many bids might be stolen.
In the AHC, three of the four semifinalists currently sit outside of the field. Air Force, tied for 15th, is the conference’s lone representative in the top-16.
The WCHA bid is guaranteed to go to a team outside the top-16. The final game of that tournament will be played this weekend between 28th-ranked Michigan Tech and 37th-ranked Bowling Green.
The ECAC semifinals contain only one team with the potential to steal a bid, Quinnipiac, while the Hockey East and NCHC semis are comprised completely of teams within the Top 16.
In the Big Ten, barring a stunning run by either Michigan or Michigan State, it is likely that the winner will be inside the top-16 by virtue of the victories (Wisconsin currently sits 18th but would likely move into the field after winning the two games necessary to earn the automatic bid).
With only three bids up for grabs in conference tournaments for teams outside the top-16, Penn State can feel safe at 13th, provided that they can solve the Wolverines.
According to collegehockeynews.com’s Pairwise calculator, Penn State would fall to 15th with a loss to Michigan before any other games across the country are taken into account. With a win, the Nittany Lions would be 12th in the Pairwise heading into a second round meeting with Minnesota under the same isolated circumstances.
Based on those results, a loss would leave the Nittany Lions in bad shape, awaiting the results of the other conference tournaments, while a win makes a tournament bid more likely than not.
Regardless, Penn State’s season will be on the line when they open Big Ten Tournament play at Joe Louis Arena Thursday at 8:00 p.m.
