ALDS preview: Indians, Red Sox get a sequel nine years later

It was 2007 the last time the Cleveland Indians won the AL Central. They went to the playoffs and faced the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS, the whole series coming down to a Game 7 in which Indians pitching disintegrated on the mound, allowing eight runs in the last two innings. The Red Sox were on their way to another World Series win while the Indians had a tough few years ahead of them. They meet for Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday, and it’s clearly time for a sequel.

The Red Sox bet on pitching last offseason, signing David Price to a seven-year, $217 million contract, and he proceeded to struggle mightily through the first six weeks of the season. With Price struggling so much, it makes you wonder if the team’s surprise pitching stars, Rick Porcello and Steven Wright, were sucking out his life force in secret. They weren’t the only stars: the Red Sox offense was without a doubt the best in baseball. They’re tops in runs per game (5.65), team batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.348), slugging (.461), and they scored the most runs in baseball (878).

But even with Porcello and Wright pitching like gangbusters and their offense tearing it up, the Red Sox being in the playoffs wasn’t a fait accompli. They had to fight for it in the extremely competitive AL East. At the end of June they were 5.5 games out of first place, and then spent the next two and a half months bouncing between first, second and third. They finally took the lead for good in mid-September.

The Red Sox have found a worthy opponent in the Indians, though. Cleveland had to overcome a lot to make it to the playoffs, even if they’re not totally in one piece. Playoffs teams have done more with less, though. They’ve survived without catcher Yan Gomes, and made it through Marlon Byrd’s PED suspension, a rejected trade for Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers, a last minute strained quad to pitching robot Corey Kluber, and injuries to two of their other great pitchers that will keep them on the shelf through the postseason. At one point they were six games out of first and sitting in fourth place in the AL Central. They finished eight games ahead of the Detroit Tigers, their closest competition.

Their offense is no slouch, either. They scored an average of 4.83 runs per game, which is second in the AL. They’re fifth in batting average (.262), and fifth in total runs scored (777). They’ve been propelled by breakout seasons from utility infielder Jose Ramirez and center fielder Tyler Naquin, a strong season from shortstop Francisco Lindor, and a bounce-back season from right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall.

SCHEDULE
Game 1: Thursday, Oct. 6, in Cleveland, 8:08 p.m. ET (TV coverage on TBS)
Game 2: Friday, Oct. 7, in Cleveland, 4:38 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 3: Sunday, Oct. 9, in Boston, 4:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 4*: Monday, Oct. 10, in Boston, time TBA (TBS)
Game 5*: Wednesday, Oct. 12, in Cleveland, time TBA (TBS)
*if necessary

PREVIOUSLY
The Red Sox decisively won the six-game season series 4-2, and their pitching is why. In those four losses, the Indians couldn’t muster more than two runs. In fact, they scored a combined seven runs over those four losses. In those wins, the Red Sox scored a total of 23 runs. That is a vast, vast difference.

PITCHING
Game 1: Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA) vs Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA)
Game 2: David Price (17-9, 3.99 ERA) vs. Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA)
Game 3: Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) vs. Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA)
Game 4*: TBD
Game 5*: TBD
*if necessary

For the Red Sox, the key to this entire series lies in the Game 1 face-off between Rick Porcello and Trevor Bauer. They have a huge advantage over the Indians: the Red Sox are starting their No. 1 guy, and the Indians are starting, well Trevor Bauer. Porcello has a 2.84 ERA in 12 career starts at Progressive Field. Trevor Bauer? He has a 12.91 ERA in three career games against the Red Sox. So Boston would be wise to take advantage of that matchup because Game 2 is more difficult: the Indians send out their ace (and Cy Young candidate) Corey Kluber, and the Red Sox send out David Price, who everyone thought would be their ace. Game 3 is deceptive, because it looks like the starters are evenly matched. But Clay Buchholz fully earned his ERA, bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, while Josh Tomlin had an unspeakably atrocious August (11.48 ERA in six starts) that pushed his ERA up in the high four range.

THREE KEYS FOR THE RED SOX
Be offensive: It’s what they do best, and the Red Sox lineup has no shortage of offensive powerhouses. MVP candidate Mookie Betts and beloved vet Dustin Pedroia are tied for best batting average on the team at .318. Part-time catcher Sandy Leon hit .310. Xander Bogaerts hit .294 overall despite hitting just .230 in the final two months of the season. Andrew Benintendi rebounded quickly after a knee injury. And, of course, there’s Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz. The Red Sox are stacked.

The Price is right: If David Price can pull it together against Indians’ ace Corey Kluber, that would be HUGE for the Red Sox.

Veteran presence: In his 20-year career, Ortiz has hit .295/.409/.553 in 357 postseason plate appearances. Big Papi can help his team a lot if he can push his regular season dominance into the playoffs for one last hurrah.

THREE KEYS FOR THE INDIANS
Klubot cannot malfunction: He is the best pitcher on the Indians, and with Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco injured, the series essentially rests on his shoulders.

Josh Tomlin — Resurgence: Tomlin is their secret weapon. He had one bad month, August, that made his ERA look atrocious, and then bounced back stupendously in September. If he can keep up the roll he’s been on, the Red Sox could get flattened.

Trust the bullpen: The Indians’ bullpen has been outstanding this season. Closer Cody Allen and reliever Dan Otero have been stellar, and they’re not the only ones. Terry Francona needs to trust that his relievers can get it done, and for heaven’s sake, don’t be afraid of using your best reliever in a tied game on the road.

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS
• .291: Boston’s batting average in six games against Cleveland this season.
• 1.69: Josh Tomlin’s September ERA.
• 5.37: The Indians’ ERA in six games against Boston. Woof.
• 82: The number of playoff games in David Ortiz’s 20-year career.
• 2: The number of vital Indians starting pitchers on the DL.

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Liz Roscher is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at lizroscher@yahoo.com or follow her on twitter! Follow @lizroscher