Abusing the Default Rankings

If there were one major change I could make in the fantasy world, pre-draft rankings would be a thing of the past and each fantasy site’s relative average draft position (ADP) would be the sole determinant of player listings in fantasy drafts.

Essentially, I want the market to decide where players are ranked.

Even with the unbelievable amount of information at our disposal, some fantasy owners are still influenced by pre-draft rankings. I urge anyone currently reading this column to be cognizant of not only what site you’re hosting your league(s) on, but also to be aware that each site’s rankings differ and vary wildly across the board.

To be clear, this column should not serve as rankings or ADP in and of itself; it’s an indicator of how to use pre-draft rankings to your advantage in drafts. Below you will find players that are ranked higher or lower than expectation, where each site has players that have generated “buzz” that has created discord across the fantasy community, and who you shouldn’t forget to scroll down the pre-draft list for.

Yahoo.com

These ranks were accessed on Yahoo’s site between August 17-24th.

Players listed higher overall than expected:

1. Marshawn Lynch

29. Melvin Gordon

32. Latavius Murray

44. Ben Roethlisberger

45. Peyton Manning

56. Tony Romo

82. Anquan Boldin

Strategy: Yahoo’s ranks are very quarterback-heavy through the first nine rounds, as there are a total of 14 quarterbacks in the top-100 overall. This type of pre-draft list panders towards fantasy owners who love to “wait on QB” and, in turn, capitalize on their league-mates who spend big on a replaceable position.

One interesting point here is Marshawn Lynch’s rank. It’s not that Lynch should or should not be ranked No. 1 overall, as this is a highly variable year at the top of drafts and there are 8-plus players with legitimate first overall arguments as Patrick Daughtery outlined here. It’s when you contrast Lynch with Le’Veon Bell and C.J. Anderson’s relative rank (see below), there is a decent buying opportunity for the latter two backs.

Players listed lower overall than expected:

5. Le’Veon Bell

14. C.J. Anderson

36. Jimmy Graham

69. Allen Robinson

93. Tevin Coleman

94. Charles Johnson (Wallace at 71)

112. Arian Foster

Strategy: Jimmy Graham is going from a team that ranked 4th (New Orleans) in plays per-game to a team that was 25th (Seattle) over the past two seasons. Additionally, it hurts Graham’s case that Seattle has been the most run-heavy team in the league during that two-year span (51.9%). But there is one major thing going in Jimmy Graham’s favor this year: touchdowns. Graham has converted 41 of his 102 career red zone targets (40.2%) into touchdowns and Seattle has run the 10th most plays inside of the 20-yard line from 2013-14. I’m into Graham in the early-3rd as opposed to the late-3rd/early-4th.

Charles Johnson’s ranking isn’t that low on the surface, but there’s a near two round gap between he and Mike Wallace (ranked 71 overall). Johnson has recently been called the receiver Teddy Bridgewater “trusts the most” and will line up as the Vikings’ “X” often this year.

We still don’t have a timetable for Arian Foster’s return (groin), but over the past five years when Foster is active he’s simply been the best back in fantasy football. He’s finished as an RB1 (top-12) in weekly PPR output 66.7% of the time and has provided an otherworldly 21.1 points per-game during that span. Even if Foster misses four-plus games, his weekly floor is tough to find in the bust-riddled 8th-11th rounds. I’m buying him in the 6th-7th round as my No. 3 or No. 4 running back on my roster.

Buzz/contentious players:

46. Ameer Abdullah

49. Martavis Bryant

51. Travis Kelce

99. Joique Bell

106. Tyler Eifert

142. Breshad Perriman

Strategy: There’s not much to contend with here. Just note that there are 53 overall spots separating SPARQ-freak (98th percentile) rookie Ameer Abdullah and the 29-year-old incumbent Joique Bell. Until Breshad Perriman (knee) starts practicing, his overall ranking and subsequent ADP will remain suppressed.

Don’t forget to scroll down for:

237. Terrance West

272. Jerick McKinnon

1999. Maxx Williams

2113. Tyler Lockett

2524. Lance Dunbar

Strategy: There aren’t many under-the-radar late round fliers going unnoticed in Yahoo’s draft applet. Lance Dunbar and Tyler Lockett are likely the two most compelling names to add to the end of your bench.

ESPN.com

These ranks were accessed on ESPN’s site between August 17-24th.

Players listed higher overall than expected:

11. LeSean McCoy

28. Alfred Morris

33. Carlos Hyde

41. Sammy Watkins

46. Joique Bell

49. Vincent Jackson

75. Roddy White

80. Michael Floyd

Strategy: ESPN’s pre-draft ranks put a major point of emphasis on players with a proven track record. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that approach -- but Alfred Morris’ last two running back finishes in PPR-leagues have yielded mid-RB2 numbers (RB17 and RB19), below his RB12 ranking in ESPN’s applet. Morris has finished as the RB13 and RB15 in non-PPR leagues in the last two seasons. Still, our own Ray Summerlin outlined that there is a clear correlation between running backs’ fantasy output and their teams’ win totals. Vegas currently has Washington slated to win just 6.5 games this year.

There are some pretty bright red flags surrounding Sammy Watkins this year, most notably his lack of quality quarterback play and Greg Roman’s run-heavy offensive scheme. ESPN has Watkins ranked ahead of receivers Keenan Allen, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Amari Cooper, Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinson.

Roddy White still has a great deal of name value, but his fantasy worth is quickly eroding. As Evan Silva noted in his Shy-Away Top 40 column, White’s overall stat line (80-921-7) looks solid but his efficiency dipped quite a bit in 2014. Despite running the most routes per-game (42.4) among qualified receivers in the league and seeing 8.7 targets per-game, Roddy finished 52nd in yards per route run and 47th in fantasy points per target out of 91 WRs. He’s entering his age-34 season, had his knee drained prior to mini-camp, and just underwent ‘minor’ elbow surgery.

Players listed lower overall than expected:

17. Julio Jones

34. Justin Forsett

70. Travis Kelce

89. Ameer Abdullah

96. John Brown

Strategy: Julio Jones is coming off a season in which he posted nine top-24 (WR2) PPR performances in 15 games and recorded his first ever 100-plus reception season. Julio has truly become a dominant force in the league as he has not been held to under 50 yards receiving in a regular season or playoff game since November 2012, as FootballGuys’ Adam Harstad noted. Back in April, numberFire’s Joe Juan wrote that Julio Jones may be on the precipice of a statistically massive season and it’s truly hard to disagree with that line of thinking.

It’s fine to deem Justin Forsett a one-year wonder, knock him down draft boards due to his age (soon to be 30-years-old), or think he’s due for some regression. Still, Carlos Hyde showing up one spot ahead of Forsett in ESPN’s applet is assuredly interesting.

The inverse of Yahoo’s ranking of Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell can be found at ESPN. Bell is 43 overall spots ahead of Abdullah, creating a buying opportunity for Abdullah believers.

Buzz/contentious players:

45. Todd Gurley

68. Allen Robinson

90. Devonta Freeman

91. Bishop Sankey and David Cobb (No. 121)

178. Sam Bradford

Strategy: Allen Robinson’s rookie year was cut short due to a broken foot, but keep in mind he was on pace for 130 targets last season as Blake Bortles’ go to target once Robinson began seeing full-time snaps. Robinson’s upside is contingent upon Bortles’ progress and more trips to the red zone, as the Jaguars ranked last in total plays inside of the 20-yard line last season. Still, anyone boarding the Allen Robinson hype-train will have a decent chance to snag the second-year WR in ESPN’s applet.

Don’t forget to scroll down for:

195. Rueben Randle

196. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

224. Stevie Johnson

273. Tyler Eifert

277. Vernon Davis

Strategy: Tyler Eifert played just eight snaps last season before suffering a season ending elbow injury, but he has clear upside in the late rounds of drafts as RotoViz’s Heith Krueger formulates here.

CBSSports.com

These ranks were accessed on CBS’ site between August 20-24th.

Players listed higher overall than expected:

15. Lamar Miller

19. Melvin Gordon

28. Latavius Murray

33. Rashad Jennings

36. Joique Bell

42. Devonta Freeman

51. Ryan Mathews

60. Roddy White

76. Seahawks DST

79. Justin Tucker

106. Jay Cutler

Strategy: I’ll come clean: I love Lamar Miller this year. But I will not be drafting Miller ahead of Rob Gronkowski, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, or A.J. Green as CBS.com’s pre-draft list has set up. Miller’s rank may just be a by-product of CBS’ ranking process as they have 11 running backs ranked inside of the top-15 overall.

CBS is bullish on Devonta Freeman and Ryan Mathews. The former will seemingly be in a dead heat for touches to start the season with Tevin Coleman while the latter isn’t even in a timeshare with DeMarco Murray. Mathews will likely have some top-24 (RB2) weeks as a product of the Eagles’ high-volume attack, but unless DeMarco Murray goes down with an injury he is more of an RB3/4-type instead of a low-end RB2.

In a perfect world, defenses and kickers would be eradicated from fantasy’s existence. There’s just too much variance at both positions and I would much rather add an extra flex spot or two to reward skillful owners. On that note, please do not take the Seahawks’ defense or Justin Tucker in the mid-7th round.

Players listed lower overall than expected:

17. Rob Gronkowski

21. Calvin Johnson

23. Julio Jones

26. A.J. Green

55. Jordan Matthews

90. Jarvis Landry

116. Allen Robinson

121. John Brown

126. Charles Johnson

Strategy: Despite an injury-riddled 2014, A.J. Green still managed to lead all qualified receivers in yards per route run (2.96) and finished 10th in per-game PPR output. In the two prior seasons, Green finished 3rd and 5th in per-game PPR scoring. Don’t let recency bias cloud your judgment.

Allen Robinson is a bit of a value on both Yahoo and ESPN, but he’s coming at a screaming discount in CBS’ pre-draft rankings. Grabbing Robinson anywhere past the seventh round should be considered a victory.

John Brown was just two targets away from leading the Cardinals in total targets last year (Larry Fitzgerald had 103 targets, Brown had 102 and Michael Floyd had 99). To be clear, Fitzgerald did miss two games with an MCL injury last year - but Brown is definitely an upside WR3 this year - not a WR4/5 flier. Michael Floyd (dislocated fingers) has been on the shelf the entire preseason and Larry Fitzgerald turns 32 on August 31st. I wouldn’t put it against Brown to lead Arizona in receiving in 2015.

Buzz/contentious players:

49. Gio Bernard

58. Todd Gurley

63. Sammy Watkins

130. C.J. Spiller

162. Devin Funchess

Strategy: C.J. Spiller’s recent knee scope rightfully knocked him down fantasy draft boards slightly, but his sky-high upside in the Saints’ offense is worth more than a 11th round pick. Devin Funchess may move up CBS’ pre-draft rankings as the season gets closer, but he’s staring into a massive opportunity share with Kelvin Benjamin (ACL) out for the season.

Don’t forget to scroll down for:

184. David Johnson

186. Brandon Coleman

215. Sam Bradford

243. Danny Woodhead

244. Phillip Dorsett

Strategy: David Johnson and Danny Woodhead are both Zero RB favorites this year and can be had cheaply in CBS’ draft applet. 6’6”, 225-pound Brandon Coleman is currently slated as the Saints No. 3 wide receiver and will be the biggest beneficiary if Marques Colston has indeed hit the proverbial wall at age-32.