NHL Fantasy Hockey: The impact of linemates
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy's resident fantasy hockey 'expert' since 2009.
Most fantasy owners put a lot of stock in who a player plays with. Not me. After all, an NHL coach will change up his lines more frequently than Wyshynski types up hockey columns, so why on earth would I base a decision on that? That being said, I'm not an idiot (well, debatable, but work with me here) - there are 15 or 20 players out there who really will see big shifts in fantasy value as a result of his linemates. It's just that there are many fantasy owners who treat every player's line as etched in stone. Take it from me, who puts out a Fantasy Guide that includes line combos and gets inundated with emails about how Player X shouldn't be on the third line because he scrimmaged on the second line the other day. But I digress.
The John Tavares Line
There is a duo already in place here with Kyle Okposo on Tavares' wing. But who will play on the other side? That's what is up for debate. According to Frozen Pool preseason line combos:
It would seem to be between Anders Lee and converted winger Mikhail Grabovski. But Grabo has looked better on the second line and Lee looks pretty good with J.T. If Lee sticks on this line, he could very well top 50 points and get into Calder Trophy conversations. If Lee does not stick on this line, we could be talking about 25 points. Big difference.
It was thought that Brock Nelson would be the best fit for that plum spot, but he has been very strong as a centerman and it doesn't look like he'll be moved back to the wing any time soon.
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The Evgeni Malkin Line
This is just a matter of replacing James Neal with Patric Hornqvist. Or so goes the theory. With Malkin out indefinitely with an injury, Hornqvist could be playing with anyone from Sidney Crosby to Craig Adams. That's quite the range. Assuming Malkin is not sidelined for much longer, Hornqvist is almost guaranteed career highs.
The Sidney Crosby Line
This should be Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis, although there has been talk that Dupuis will play on the third line instead. But the impact of Crosby is quite obviously a big one. After all, Kunitz is a 55-point player who became an 80-pont player. And Dupuis is a 40-point player who became a 65-point guy.
The Alex Ovechkin Line
Another duo locked in as Nicklas Backstrom is Ovy's frequent partner. But who is the third member? Over the years it has often been Marcus Johansson or Brooks Laich. Heading into the offseason, poolies had visions of rookie Evgeny Kuznetsov on that wing and thereby running away with the Calder Trophy. But lately, in training camp, it's been Eric Fehr. The big drawback with Fehr is that his name is pronounced 'fair' instead of 'fear' which is cooler. But another big drawback is that he is injury prone. However, if he can stick on that line and stay healthy for 70 games, he could almost double last year's 31 points.
The Steven Stamkos Line
The jobs on each side of Stamkos are apparently up for grabs. He enjoyed time down the stretch last season with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, but Jon Cooper is apparently trying out others. So far, Nikita Kucherov and Ryan Callahan have been the lucky ones, but Alex Killorn enjoyed chemistry with Stammer early on in 2013-14. While Johnson and Palat can tally 50 or 55 points without Stamkos, you can probably guess that they would do much, much better with him. And if Kucherov hangs onto that plum spot, he'll be an instant star.
The Ryan Getzlaf Line
What do Dany Heatley, Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy have in common? I believe in all three equally. When Bruce Boudreau gets done experimenting with Heatley on the Getzlaf - Corey Perry line, then the real auditions can begin and there are no shortage of candidates - Devante Smith-Pelley, Patrick Maroon, Kyle Palmieri, Matt Beleskey and Jakob Silfverberg. My pick is Smith-Pelly, but I also predict that it won't happen until Christmas. My favorite though, is Silfverberg. It sure would be nice to see a player of his potential get an extended look on that line. But from everything we've seen so far with regards to how Boudreau uses him, it doesn't appear to be in the cards.
The Tyler Seguin Line
One year ago today, we were all excited about the possibilities with a Seguin - Jamie Benn combo. Now that they've exploded into superstars, we're excited about who gets to play with them. Ales Hemsky? Valeri Nichushkin?
Uh…Ryan…Garbutt?
All three of these players could top 50 points on this line. Even Mr. Garbutt. But Nichushkin will eventually solidify his spot on this line and is destined to flirt with 60 points while he's still a teenager.
The Claude Giroux Line
Last year the line of Scott Hartnell - Giroux - Jakub Voracek was one of the league's best, especially in the second half. With Hartnell now in Columbus, Giroux needs a new winger. And although R.J. Umberger will get a look there early on, it won't take long to realize that he fits in there about as well as I do. And while Wayne Simmonds saw time with Giroux last season, that was at the expense of Voracek and not Hartnell. So that leaves Michael Raffl and Matt Read. The latter has more upside, but he's also very talented in other roles which makes it more difficult to put him in that one. If Read can somehow secure that first-line spot, he'll easily set career highs.
Other Line-Related Fantasy Impact
P.A. Parenteau, Montreal Canadiens - Right now, Parenteau is lining up with David Desharnais and Max Pacioretty. And if you take away that brutal first quarter of 2013-14 in which Desharnais couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, those two were probably the best offensive options on the Habs. If Parenteau can fit in, he'll rebound back up over 60 points again.
Benoit Pouliot, Edmonton Oilers - With the money they're paying him, Pouliot is going to be put in a position to score and seems destined for career highs offensively.
Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings - It doesn't matter how utterly horrible Brown's season was last year, he and Anze Kopitar go hand in hand. Sure, line combos will be changed and experiments will be tried, but in the end Brown will be Kopitar's linemate and that should mean a rebound to well over 40 points, possible 50.
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Jori Lehtera, St. Louis Blues - Lehtera makes his way across the pond a la Carl Soderberg. That is to say, he took his sweet time doing it. But in the KHL he enjoyed fantastic chemistry with Vladimir Tarasenko and the two are paired up again. Watch these two take off early.
Tyler Bozak, Toronto Maple Leafs - Argue all you want, complain all you want…but Bozak is Phil Kessel's centerman and that's not going to change. The only thing stopping Bozak from 60 points is his frequent injuries. If he can kick that habit, he'll put up his best numbers yet. All because of his linemate. Trust me, he's not getting 60 (or even 40) playing with Leo Komarov.
Radim Vrbata, Vancouver Canucks - Vrbata will enjoy an opportunity playing with the best linemates of his career. As long as he doesn't show absolutely abysmal chemistry, he'll keep that job all season long and get back to 35 goals.
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