Huge If True: Oh jeez Steven Stamkos liked another tweet!

[Breaking down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Rumor

Can you believe it folks?

Twice in less than four months, Steven Stamkos has favorited or liked a tweet — depending on which side of the fav/like split the incident happened — in such a way that may or may not indicate he might go to the Maple Leafs when and if (PROBABLY WHEN THOUGH!) he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. And did you know he's from Toronto? I mean gee whiz with this guy!

First there was the tweet in July linking to a navel-gazing Adam Proteau story from The Hockey News wondering if the Leafs would ever get their own LeBron; that is, a hometown superstar coming home and, I don't know, leading the Leafs to the promised land or something. He quickly undid the fave when people realized it happened, and later issued a statement through the Twitter account of the Tampa Bay Lightning, the team for which he currently plays and will continue to play for at least the next few months.

But then he did it again! Wednesday morning he liked a tweet from TSN that linked to a video in which the network's hockey experts asked if Toronto should try to sign him this summer. It was, in fact, the only “like” he had on file. He also un-liked it within an hour or two, but everyone noticed and was Very Excited.

There is some speculation that this is “trolling,” but one suspects this is from people who do not know what “trolling” is. It might have been a slip of the thumb or maybe he's gonna say his account got hacked, but whatever. We all talked about it.

Liking tweets has a precedent as something that can successfully kickstart trade rumors, and even, perhaps trades. But who knows?

As of this writing, Stamkos has yet to apologize via his team's Twitter, likely because he is not sorry.

Who's Going Where?

So the rumor, to summarize, is Stamkos is totally 100 percent definitely and for sure going to sign with the Leafs this summer.

But here's something to keep in mind: Tweet-liking or not, this has been A Thing for quite a while now. Obviously the rumors started last summer when it came out that Stamkos didn't really like playing the wing, but Jon Cooper made him do it in the playoffs and everyone had some pretty solid success as a result.

But that didn't stop everyone from yammering on about Distractions and whether Stamkos even wants to come back to Tampa in the first place. Again, they seem to prefer him on the wing, and he may have even been shopped in the summer because contract talks might not have been going that well. Indeed, had they been going well, we might have heard, y'know, something about it. Instead, we have not.

All we really know is both sides are talking, but doing their “due diligence” on the issue. Perhaps more worrisome for Stamkos is the fact that the Bolts recently re-upped Jon Cooper, as they should, and while Steve Yzerman can say all he likes that the coach's extension has nothing to do with the player's, it's something worth wondering about. If Cooper is demanding Stamkos play the wing, and Stamkos is ideologically opposed to the idea for both on-ice and bank-account related reasons (centers tend to get paid more than wings, because they are more important), then what does the team sticking with Cooper do for his mindset?

We're starting to get a lot of pieces coming out, like those from Frank Seravalli and Craig Custance in the last week alone, about whether the coach/captain partnership is working in Tampa, and what all that could mean for Stamkos's future in Tampa long-term. If they value Tyler Johnson and Valtteri Filppula down the middle more so than a guy with Stamkos's credentials, what does that say to him? Probably not a whole lot good.

Further, Custance also reports that the lack of traction in the Stamkos negotiations have also delayed the team's ability to talk with Nikita Kucherov. Which, at some point, they might have to prioritize if there's too much tire-spinning.

If the tea leaves around the league, as read by smart and very plugged-in hockey people, indicate any sort of issue, then that — plus the Twitter thing — is going to get people thinking “Toronto” first and foremost.

The Implications

People are, for one thing, talking about Tampa and Stamkos like he's been bad or something this year.

He hasn't been great; he's only on pace for 32-ish goals and 60ish points. Both would be the fewest in a full season since he was a rookie. But there are forces at work here that he could turn around. For instance, he's taking the fewest shots per game we've seen since that rookie year, but he could easily start unloading more shots, increasing both his shot and assists totals (more rebounds).

He's also attempting fewer shots at 5-on-5 than he has in his entire career, rookie year included. His previous career low was 14.3 attempts per 60. This year, it's just 10. That's a huge drop-off, but one that you can't imagine lasts very long.

That does not mean that it would be folly for any team to extend him for Patrick Kane/Jonathan Toews — or, hell, more than that — for the maximum seven years allowable by the CBA. Any team with the cap space that wouldn't take a player like Stamkos at that price is probably going to be one that isn't very wise.

But we're a long way away from being able to say, “This is what is going to happen with Stamkos.” Hell, if contract talks really sour, the Lightning could decide to trade him before he ever reaches free agency, further complicating matters.

Not that Toronto wouldn't have the money, will, cap room, need, etc. to get Stamkos signed up, but there's a lot of runway between now and then for such a rumor to really convincingly get off the ground.

Even if we're already talking about the Leafs circumventing the cap, like so:

Leaving aside the economic realities that you can make more money advertising stuff in Toronto than you can Tampa, I bet that'll go over well with the rest of the league.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

The possibility that is being less-discussed here, though, is the idea that Stamkos is waging a shadow war to drive up the bidding. Even if he does re-sign with Tampa, he'd almost be a fool to not at least go to July 1 and let the league at large — well, at least those with the money and inclination — bid for him like crazy. Why deprive yourself of that?

Obviously Stamkos carries with him an internal, unique market. His value is known and he is highly sought-after, and if he were to reach UFA status, he would be the best player to do it in a long time, if not ever. Teams always move to lock down players of this caliber, and the fact that Tampa hasn't might be telling. It also might not be.

With that in mind, and given that we're still like seven months away from free agency, and working in good conscience, right now I can only give this:

It certainly makes a lot of sense, but if everyone involved is in deny-deny-deny mode, we have to assume they're still working in good faith to get Stamkos to be a Bolt for life.

Even if he did like that tweet.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)