Week 10 Over/Under: Will Pierre go cruisin’ for a bruisin’ Sunday night?

Brad Evans
November 8, 2013
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Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders this week.

With Darren Sproles' snap count on the decline and Mark Ingram about as effective as an umbrella in a hurricane, total yards for Pierre Thomas against the Cowpokes 89.5

Andy – OK, I'll take the OVER here, but not by much. I like the recent workload for PT — he's seen at least a dozen touches in four straight games. I just wish Thomas was running more efficiently; he's averaging 3.5 YPC for the season. This week, I'm forecasting 91 yards, with a possibility of a score.

Brad – OVER. The PT Bruiser is quietly undergoing a statistical renaissance. A date with the league's worst defense versus receiving RBs should will only enhance his numbers. On the year, Dallas has allowed 7.0 receptions and 56.9 receiving yards per game to rushers. North of 100 total yards and a TD is quite attainable.

Scott – UNDER, because I never really feel good about the Sean Payton roulette. He wants to be the star of his offense, much like Bobby Knight in the Indiana days. Maybe Sproles gets into the mix, maybe Robinson does something, maybe it's just Brees pinball. Thomas is more flexy to me here, not a RB2.

Nick Foles, a week removed from joining Peyton Manning and others for most touchdowns thrown in a game, vertical strikes in the followup at Green Bay 2.5

Brad – OVER. When your secondary makes Josh McCown look impressive, you know it's underperforming. Colin Kaepernick and RGIII are the only QBs to eclipse the proposed numbers versus the Pack this year. Yes, Foles is a bit Jekyll/Hyde, but in a game with shootout potential he delivers another strong outing.

Scott – OVER. I'm in. The Dallas game was an excused absence; otherwise, Foles has been brilliant. Bring a cap, Michael Vick.

Dalton – UNDER. I'm actually a believer in Foles, but I'm not ready to peg him as a 3-TD per week type QB just yet either. Green Bay is going to run like crazy and try to make this as low of a scoring game as possible with no Rodgers.

C.J. Spiller, who Doug Marrone remarked is 'excited' to get more touches this week, total yards versus the Steelers 89.5

Scott – OVER. The tape for Week 9 speaks for itself. I wish I had a Spiller share, anywhere.

Dalton – OVER. I realize this is a bit of a reach considering Spiller's disappointing performance so far this year and the fact he'll be sharing touches with Fred Jackson, but I'm a believer in his talent and think he's finally close to being back to 100 percent. Pittsburgh has also allowed the most rushing TDs to opposing running backs in the NFL this season.

Brandon – OVER. I'm going back on forth on this one, as I think he'll be right around this number. Only three running backs have topped this mark against Pittsburgh this season, but Spiller looked so spry last week that I'm going to lean to the over here.

Sans tag-team partner Justin Blackmon for the rest of the year, Cecil Shorts is again the main receiving attraction in Jacksonville. Total targets against the rigid Titans 11.5

Dalton – OVER. Shorts is going to be a target monster from here on out, although that might not necessarily result in a huge fantasy day this week. He has just one touchdown on the year and will be locked up against Tennessee shutdown corner Alterraun Verner, who's allowed an NFL-low 23.2 QB Rating during passes thrown his way this season.

Brandon – UNDER. The Titans have gone six straight games without a receiver seeing more than eight targets against them. With Tennessee corners Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner ranked among the best in the league at defending the pass this season, there's little to exploit in the Titans secondary, making it hard for opponents to go to the well for a particular receiver in mass quantities. I think Shorts ends up in the 8-10 target range.

Andy – OVER, probably by three or four. He's seen double-digit targets in every game this season, except the Denver tilt, where he injured his shoulder.

TE Tussle. Pick one: Garrett Graham (at Ari), Heath Miller (vs. Buf), Martellus Bennett (vs. Det) or Greg Olsen (at SF)

Brandon – BENNETT. Recent history is king for me in this case, as Bennett had eight catches for 90 yards against the Lions in Week 4. Plus, he ranks fourth among tight ends in red zone targets (third in goal line targets), so you have to always like his odds at hitting pay dirt.

Andy – Well, the matchup says Graham, but I'm going BENNETT, because his targets are guaranteed. The Bears only throw the ball to five players – and they'll need to chuck it all afternoon against Detroit.

Brad – Speaking as a matchup advocate, GRAHAM is the obvious and best choice. Tight ends have had a field day against Arizona routinely averaging 10.8 targets and 89.6 yards per game with eight touchdowns.

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Assuming Darren McFadden rests, Rashad Jennings, doing his best Charlie Garner impersonation last week totaling 176 yards (7-74-0 though the air) and a touchdown, total yards against a suddenly resurgent Giants defense 84.5

Andy – OK, I reject this "resurgent Giants defense" nonsense. New York faced Josh Freeman and Matt Barkley in back-to-back games. This D has not exactly been tested lately. I'll take the OVER here. Jennings should have little trouble topping 90 total yards against the Giants.

Brad – UNDER. The Giants have tightened the screws significantly in the trenches. Over the past five weeks, they've given up a mere 2.71 yards per carry and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Jennings would struggle shaking the Empire State Building in the open field. He runs upright and is overly stiff. The volume will be there, but it would likely take him 25 touches to cash the over.

Scott – OVER. Jennings has no special qualities but he's capable in many areas. I really love him in PPR formats, scooping all that cheap receiving yardage.

Ryan Mathews, inexplicably not used in the second half of last week's hard-fought battle against Washington, total carries this time around against visiting Denver 14.5

Brad – OVER. In terms of Mathews misusage Mike McCoy = Norv Turner. What transpired last week in Washington was completely senseless. Danny Woodhead will be the most valuable San Diego RB in Week 10, but one would think Mathews would garner roughly 15-17 carries in a contest which the Chargers must control the clock.

Scott – OVER. I know a fluke when I see one, and the Fresno State product has quietly earned Circle of Trust credibility in 2013. McCoy shouldn't be overly bashed for one momentary lapse of reason.

Dalton – UNDER. It's all situational with Mathews' usage, and it's never a good thing when San Diego is playing from behind, which is a likely scenario Sunday. He's averaged 14.5 carries per game this season and will be playing in a game in which his team enters as touchdown underdogs in Week 10.

Lance Moore, gifted a superb matchup against Dallas, receptions versus the 'Boys 5.5

Scott – OVER. Marques Colston is moving like Fred G. Sanford, and Kenny Stills is a one-trick pony. Moore has a good thing going with his quarterback; a reliable bass player for this offense.

Dalton – UNDER. I get this game should be high scoring and who knows what's up with Marques Colston. But Moore has recorded more than three receptions in a game just once this season, so I'll fade this number while also recognizing he has a path to a nice game Sunday.

Brandon – OVER. Moore went 6/70 last week and now gets a Dallas defense that allows more than 300 passing yards per game and ranks seventh in total receptions allowed to the WR position. And it certainly doesn't hurt Moore's case that he's one of the healthiest among the Saints' receiving corps this week – Marques Colston (knee), Jimmy Graham (foot), Darren Sproles (concussion) …

Case Keenum, creating a fantasy frenzy averaging 310.5 passing yards per game and 10.5 yards per attempt through two starts, combined yards at Arizona 289.5

Dalton – OVER. Arizona has allowed just 6.9 YPA this season and has been especially tough at home. But I'm all in on Keenum. He's good.

Andy – Combined yards? We think there's going to be a significant rushing component to his game? Meh. Don't see it. (Editor's note: Behrens apparently glossed over Keenum's 36 rushing yards in two games. Kid isn't afraid to scramble. Check his college stats.) I do like that he's aggressive, willing to fire downfield. He's certainly been better than advertised. Still, Keenum is on the road this week facing a competent defense, so I'm gonna go UNDER.

Brandon – UNDER. This feels like a comedown week for Keenum, facing a a tough Arizona pass defense on the road. And though Keenum offers nice mobility, I don't think you can count on that to pad his numbers much against a defense that has held Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton to an average of 24 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns this season.

Sunshine State showdown. Pick one: Mike James (vs. Mia), Lamar Miller (at TB) or Maurice Jones-Drew (at Ten)

Brandon – MOJO – It's MoJo, and it's not even close, in my opinion. Tennessee has been one of the most generous defenses in fantasy to opposing backs, MJD has a healthy history against the Titans (97-plus rushing yards in four of the past five meetings) and he's averaged a very respectable 84.5 yards from scrimmage his past four games. I think the game should be closer than what is usual for Jacksonville, and I wouldn't be surprised if MoJo had a season-high workload as a result.

Andy – MIKE JAMES for me. Which is not to say that I'm overflowing with enthusiasm for any of these three this week (or any week).

Brad – JAMES. Rookie gained 56.3 percent of his 158 yards after contact last week in hostile Seattle. Matched against a Miami D in which RBs are performing 41.9-percent above the league average against since Week 5, he tops the century mark with ease in consecutive weeks.

Scott – Give me JAMES, a volume king and a nifty pile mover. And by the way, I'll sign off on your Doug Martin drop (this is a recording).

Dalton – JAMES. He sure looked impressive during the team's near upset in Seattle last week, and Miami has given up the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

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