NBA Stock Watch: Karl-Anthony Towns rising, Nerlens Noel falling
STOCK UP
Karl-Anthony Towns: Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 19.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 0.9 3pt with a 59.4 FG% and 84.2 FT%. Over this seven-game span, KAT has been the No. 7 fantasy player, and he’s seen just 29.5 mpg, which is the fewest among those in the top 12. Towns is 20 years old and has been a top-15 fantasy player during his rookie season despite sporting a Usage Rate that’s tied for 79th in the NBA. He sure looks like a special talent.
Wesley Matthews: He got off to a predictably slow start coming off a torn Achilles, but he’s been a top-20 player over his last six games, and that’s including a 2-for-10 clunker Wednesday. Matthews averaged 9.2 three-point attempts over that span, and his minutes are back up to normal. He’s been a top-60 player each of the past five years, including top-40 last season. Matthews looks like he’s going to be a major profit moving forward for those who risked grabbing him coming off such a major injury.
Kent Bazemore: It certainly seemed reasonable to expect some regression after Bazemore’s hot start that seemingly came out of nowhere, but if anything, he’s actually been even better of late. In fact, he’s averaged 15.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.3 3pt while shooting 51.5% from the floor and 93.8% from the line over the past two weeks, when he’s somehow been the No. 15 ranked player despite seeing a modest 27.4 mpg. He’s back in Atlanta’s starting lineup, and there’s little reason to expect that to change anytime soon. After averaging just 5.2 ppg last season, Bazemore has been a top-35 player. He went undrafted in the majority of Yahoo leagues.
Jae Crowder: He’s actually been in a shooting slump of late, but Crowder has still gotten 14.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 bpg and 2.6 3pt over the past eight games, when he’s seen 34.0 mpg. He’s a terrific free throw shooter, rarely turns the ball over and is one of only eight players in the league to average at least 2.0 steals and 1.5 threes. Boston sports a top-five Pace, and Crowder is finally getting the playing time he deserves. He had an ADP of 124 yet has had the same fantasy value as DeMarcus Cousins this season.
John Henson: With Greg Monroe out the next week, Henson’s moved into Milwaukee’s starting five and will get more run. He was nearly a top-100 player on a per-36 minute basis last season, so Henson will be worth adding in the short-term for those in deep leagues.
STOCK DOWN
Nerlens Noel: After averaging 2.3 bpg and 2.1 spg after the All-Star break as a 20-year-old last season, I fully expected Noel to be a fantasy star in 2015/16. Instead, he’s been a bust, seeing a decrease in every category during his second year in the league except turnovers, as he’s committed 1.0 more per game. After averaging 14.4 field goal attempts over the first five games this season, Noel has taken double-digit shots just once over his past dozen contests, and his already shaky free throw shooting has only gotten worse. It’s been a baffling turn of events, and it’s clear the addition of Jahlil Okafor has been a huge detriment to Noel’s fantasy value. In fact, he had an ADP of 29 and is currently not ranked as a top 200 player. What a disaster in Philadelphia.
Serge Ibaka: While nowhere near the bust level of Noel, Ibaka was a mid-second round pick who’s failed to live up to expectations. The return of Kevin Durant hasn’t affected Ibaka’s Usage Rate much, but his attempts from downtown have dropped from 3.2 per game last season to 1.3 this year, and his 7.2 rpg are his lowest since his rookie campaign, when he saw just 18:07 mpg. Ibaka has been a top-20 player each of the past four seasons and should be viewed as a buy low candidate, but he’s no doubt been a disappointment.
Danny Green: He was a top-25 player last year despite seeing just 28:32 mpg, but his small margin for error has been highlighted in a big way so far, as a massive shooting slump has destroyed those who used a mid-round pick on Green. He’s currently sporting a 33.3 FG%, and after shooting 41.8% from beyond the arc last season, he’s down to 29.7 this year despite playing for a Spurs team that has the third-best Offensive Efficiency (105.7) in the NBA. It’s possible some blowouts have affected this, but Green has been given just 19.7 mpg over his last six contests, a span in which he’s attempted zero free throws. Green’s PER (7.84) ranks No. 300 in the league.
Evan Fournier: He’s been a top-80 player despite being undrafted in most leagues, so there’s no reason to complain here, but Fournier’s surprising run has really hit a wall of late. He’s barely been a top-200 player over the past two weeks, when he’s averaged 8.7 ppg while shooting 38.0% from the field, so there’s a chance he won’t even be worth owning soon, although teammate Victor Oladipo has been the bigger detriment to fantasy owners so far this year.
Andrew Wiggins: His future looks bright, as he’s a 20-year-old who frequently gets to the line and is averaging 20.7 ppg. But Wiggins’ game continues to translate poorly to fantasy value, as he currently ranks No. 168, which is a huge discrepancy compared to his ADP that was No. 58. Wiggins isn’t a positive in any category other than scoring (slightly in blocks) at this stage of his career. One optimistic take is that despite the addition of yet another No. 1 overall pick, his Usage Rate has seen a major jump this season.
