Fantasy Baseball starting pitcher values in latest Shuffle Up
Today we tackle the big one, the elusive one, the erratic one, those maddening starting pitchers...
The idea is 5x5 value for rest of season. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. I didn't rank anyone on the DL, or anyone in the minors. Everyone seems to be more optimistic on injury returnees and hot prospects than I am.
The prices are unscientific in nature, and players at the same price are considered even. I'm just looking for a way to show the pockets of value as I see them. I don't look at old prices when I construct these -- it's all from scratch. I don't even see the point of looking back there; live in the present, look to the future.
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I welcome your respectful disagreement. Obviously you will feel passionate about what you don't agree with, that's why we have a game. The discussion can be deep and illuminating if you want it to be.
And remember the golden rule -- a player doesn't gain value because you like him, nor does he lose value because you don't like him.
I reserve the right to make changes in this list during the first 24 hours. Win the debate, win the rank. Some extended comments have been added.
If I missed someone, let me know. I'm on Twitter, @scott_pianowski.
$35 Clayton Kershaw
$32 Madison Bumgarner
$31 Jake Arrieta
$30 Jose Fernandez
$30 Noah Syndergaard
$30 Max Scherzer
$28 Stephen Strasburg
$28 Johnny Cueto
$28 Chris Sale
$27 Jon Lester
$22 Zack Greinke
$21 Jacob deGrom
$21 David Price
$20 Cole Hamels
$20 Corey Kluber
$20 Julio Teheran
$19 Jeff Samardzija
$19 Carlos Martinez
$19 John Lackey
More cutters and more ground balls have driven Shark’s comeback, along with all the advantages that come with life in San Francisco. As much as we talk about obvious things like AT&T Park and the Giants infield defense, I think the Buster Posey effect gets underrated at times. Posey’s only Top 5 MVP year was the season he won it, which doesn’t sit well with me. But it could be decades before the defensive metrics figure out a way to truly measure what a catcher is worth.
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I don't see the need for a lot of Kershaw think pieces. Everyone has a sense of how ridiculous he is. I will share my rule of thumb for trading Kershaw: if the offer isn't an obvious and immediate yes, just say no. I don't believe in untouchables in this game, but in instances like this, you need to be bowled over.
$18 Masahiro Tanaka
$18 Danny Salazar
$17 Justin Verlander
$17 Jose Quintana
$16 Steven Matz
$16 Kenta Maeda
$15 Kyle Hendricks
$14 Adam Wainwright
$14 Dallas Keuchel
$14 Jake Odorizzi
$14 Jason Hammel
$14 Matt Harvey
$14 Carlos Carrasco
$13 Marco Estrada
$13 Chris Tillman
$13 Matt Shoemaker
$13 Drew Pomeranz
$12 Trevor Bauer
$12 Chris Archer
$12 Jordan Zimmermann
$12 Steven Wright
$12 Sonny Gray
$12 Drew Smyly
$11 Michael Fulmer
$11 Aaron Nola
As much as I love Nola and his curveball, I wonder if his fastball is good enough to develop him into a star. He’s throwing the bender about a third of the time, third-most in the league. Maybe he eventually turns into an Adam Wainwright type (that would be the high end); the ground-ball rates are in the same neighborhood. I also wonder how many innings the Phillies will let Nola throw this year in a non-contending season, though he did get into the 180s last year. Still, at 23, I don’t see any reason to overly extend him.
I know I have Shoemaker higher than some are comfortable with, but two things make be believe in him -- how good he was in 2014 (he's done it before, for an extended period of time), and the strikeout rate he's sailed to since he recaptured the command of his splitter.
I’m conflicted with Wright, and I’d love to rank him higher. I love the story. I also think Wright has an advantage playing for Boston, since it affords him extra time to work with Tim Wakefield. There aren’t that many minds who truly understand the knuckler.
From season to season, we generally understand the volatility at play. Look how Wakefield followed up his best seasons, or what R.A. Dickey did after his Cy Young season (albeit some part of that was the league change). Unless the Regression Police go to the moon against Wright next year (and make him a giveaway price), I’ll certainly be leery of him. The knucker is a feel pitch and you worry about what’s lost over the winter. But in-season, it’s a different set of concerns.
Ultimately I have Wright priced this conservatively because he had a modest track record before this year and a knuckleballer presents a rockier floor when things go bad. The downside has to be minded here. That said, he’s on a couple of my fantasy teams (and he’s also on my favorite real-life team, for whatever that means) and I’d love for the flutterball to keep dancing. I wish we had more pitchers throwing this pitch, even if it’s merely as a last-ditch attempt to stay in the majors.
If you want to stump for Wright, though, please don't quote his current banked-stats rank and drop the mic. We consider what's happened, sure, but this exercise is never intended to be a rolling out of the current stat rankings. The idea is how we view players if everyone started from scratch today.
$10 C.C. Sabathia
$10 Colby Lewis
$11 Michael Wacha
$11 Aaron Sanchez
$10 Doug Fister
$10 Danny Duffy
$9 Zach Davies
$9 J.A. Happ
$9 Hisashi Iwakuma
$9 Scott Kazmir
$9 James Paxton
$9 Joe Ross
$9 Gio Gonzalez
$8 Mike Leake
$8 Josh Tomlin
$8 Jerad Eickhoff
$8 Taijuan Walker
$8 Jaime Garcia
$7 Tanner Roark
$7 R.A. Dickey
$7 Jameson Taillon
$7 Francisco Liriano
I love the Sabathia story, and although I wasn't initially invested in the returns, I'm now up to three or four shares. He's conquered some much-documented demons in his personal life, and the cutter is agreeing with him. Obviously the HR/FB rate has nowhere to go but up, but he's too deep in the season for us to write this off as a fluke. No one expects the sterling ratios to continue, but I fully expect him to be roto-relevant for the balance of the year. Welcome back, lefty.
$6 Ian Kennedy
$6 Archie Bradley
$6 Collin McHugh
$6 Blake Snell
$6 Rick Porcello
$5 Julio Urias
$5 Tom Koehler
$5 Dan Straily
$5 Mike Fiers
$5 Yordano Ventura
$5 Wei-Yin Chen
$5 Jon Gray
$5 Lance McCullers
$4 Bud Norris
$4 Bartolo Colon
$4 Jimmy Nelson
$4 Junior Guerra
$4 Tyler Anderson
$4 Patrick Corbin
$4 Nathan Eovaldi
$4 Michael Pineda
$4 Cody Reed
$4 Marcus Stroman
$3 Tim Lincecum
$3 Daniel Mengden
$3 Christian Friedrich
$3 Brandon Finnegan
$3 Matt Moore
$3 Martin Perez
$3 Shelby Miller
$3 Miguel Gonzalez
$3 Carlos Rodon
$3 Anthony DeSclafani
$3 Adam Conley
$3 Derek Holland
$3 Kevin Gausman
$3 Nathan Karns
A friendly reminder to you radio chaps — there are only three syllables in Eovaldi . . . I generally don’t trust shorter pitchers, which had me out on Stroman from the jump. Good luck turning it around in that nightmare division . . . When McCullers stops walking the ballpark, I’ll consider a price increase. And if I’m late to that story, so it goes . . . I generally am less optimistic about prospects right out of the box, which I why I have very grounded prices on Taillon, Reed and Urias. In the case of Urias, we know for sure the team is going to handle him with the gentlest of kid gloves.
$2 Chase Anderson
$2 Matt Garza
$2 Jeremy Hellickson
$2 Jake Peavy
$1 Chris Young
$1 Ricky Nolasco
$1 Jorge De La Rosa
$1 Jered Weaver
$1 Clay Buchholz
$1 Michael Bolsinger
$1 Eduardo Rodriguez
$1 Hector Santiago
$1 John Lamb
$1 Collin Rea
$0 Aaron Blair
$-3 James Shields
