Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Thu Jan 29, 2009 3:00 pm EST

The should-be All-Star reserves


The last time we did this
, the fans were to blame. Or, going to be the ones to be blamed.

This time around, it's the coaches that select the All-Star reserves. Or assistant coaches, really, because head men usually delegate this responsibility to their underlings, and they almost always get something wrong. Shocking, I know, but they're the reason someone like Ray Allen makes the team in the midst of a rather average 2007-08 turn, but misses it during a fantastic and All-Star worthy run in 2008-09.

They are a strange lot, prone to rewarding the second and third-best players on good teams instead of great, All-Star-level players on losing teams. You know they spend two days preparing for ways to try to guard someone like Al Jefferson prior to a game of theirs against the Timberwolves, but when it comes time to vote ... yay, David West.

And then there's the roster situation. One center, two forwards, two guards, two wild cards. I went specific with my selections last week and caught some heat for picking Kevin Durant as starting small forward (instead of just going with two forwards), but there's no such issue this time.

(BDL will be live bloggin' the announcement tonight, by the way, around 7 pm Eastern ...)

After the jump, the rest of the best ...

Eastern Conference

Center: Chris Bosh.

Apparently, coaches have been given the freedom to classify Bosh as a center, which makes sense. After all, he's played more minutes at center than any other Raptor this season, and even when he's technically at big forward, how can you possibly classify Andrea Bargnani as a pivot when he's nailing three-pointers off of passes sent to him from Bosh down in the low post?

Had Big Zydrunas Ilgauskas been healthy all season, we would have had an issue, because Big Z was clearly out-pacing quite a few players on this list until he went down.

Forwards: Vince Carter, Danny Granger.

Carter has made a complete transformation, having his best season in years, staying aggressive, and essentially turning into the sort of player we thought he'd round into entering his third season, only to see him worm his way into a fadeaway jump shooter even as the applause (because of Toronto's longish playoff run) still rolled in.

Granger is scoring 26 points per game. How you can leave a guy who is scoring 26 a game off, I have no idea. Yes, Indiana's pace is a little high, but Granger has been keeping them in games all season.

Paul Pierce is an All-Star, but he hasn't played like one this season. Rashard Lewis is on a very good team, nothing more, and Antawn Jamison is actually closer to a nod than you'd think. Jamison is having a terrific year for a team that plays Mike James for most of the game.

Guards: Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson.

Harris should be starting, we don't need to revisit just how brilliant he's been, and Nelson has kept up the great play on both ends all season. Two easy picks.

Wild Card: Jamison, Rajon Rondo.

I had no idea I'd even consider Antawn Jamison before putting this list together, much less send him to Phoenix. This is a bit of a shock to me, as well.

Jamison's a curious case. There was no way in hell he should have made the All-Star team in 2005, but as the most familiar face on a team that was suddenly winning, they gave him the nod over several more deserving players mainly because the coaches felt like they had to reward a team that plays well with two All-Star berths. Ridiculous. The reward should be all the wins that they were piling up.

And he was kind of an iffy selection last year, though more passable. This year, he's been terrific for a horrible team, his shooting percentage has actually managed to rise significantly in spite of all the added defensive attention teams have thrown at him, and he's played better and for longer than Joe Johnson, who is averaging 16.9 points and 35.6 percent shooting in January.

The Hawks are better than the Wizards, but that doesn't mean Johnson has been better than Jamison.

I purposely put Rondo as a "Wild Card" instead of placing him on the guard list because, let's be honest, his iffy play was probably the biggest reason Boston slid a bit in early January. That doesn't mean he hasn't played at an All-Star level, he has, or that at his best he's probably a better player than Nelson ("probably," forget that, "is a better player ..."), but Nelson has played better and done it more consistently this year than Rajon.

Western Conference

Center: Al Jefferson.

Again, we've lucked out because coaches are allowed to list Jefferson as a starter. Which, again, makes sense because he's played nearly 70 percent of his team's minutes at center this season.

Now, that last stat is important, because look what percentage of Phoenix's minutes Shaquille O'Neal has played at center this year. 53 percent. And given nearly equal stats and nearly equal defensive limitations, shouldn't we hand the slot over to a player who has done it longer? And by "longer," I don't mean "since 1992." I mean, "this year, for his team." Lots of italics in this one. Sorry, Skeets.

Forwards: Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki.

Before you accuse me of handing a slot over to a borderline All-Star just because he's on a very good team, check the stats: 17 and nine rebounds and 55 percent shooting in only 35 minutes? That's efficient, brilliant, basketball. Throw in three and a half assists and a block, and you have an All-Star.

Dirk's an All-Star, and he's having an All-Star year. There's a difference, but Dirk checks out on both fronts.

Nene was close to Pau and my eventual Wild Card, but I should say that Gasol isn't making it by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. That said, keep it up, Nene.

Guards: Tony Parker, Brandon Roy.

Deron Williams is a better basketball player than Tony Parker, but he hasn't had as good a season. Parker has played knockout basketball when he's healthy.

Brandon Roy has been fantastic this season, despite some injury woes.

And if either player's injury woes want to pop up between now and the game in order to allow Steve Nash to slide on, they would have my blessing. Somebody cough into Tony's mouth.

Wild Card: Chauncey Billups, Paul Millsap.

Billups has turned the Nuggets around, but that's not why he's on here. He's on here because his individual production on both sides of the ball has been stellar. The fact that it dovetails nicely with Denver's re-emergence (which has a lot to do with Nene, no Marcus Camby to whiff on screen and rolls, and Kenyon Martin) is just a bonus.

The second selection was tough. Here's why.

Every part of me tells me that Millsap has played better basketball than Shaquille O'Neal this year. Rounded out to 36 minutes, O'Neal's 21.2 points, 10.5 boards, and 1.8 blocks seem to trump Paul's 17.4, 10.8, and 1.2 blocks, and Shaq's even cut down his turnovers quite a bit.

But Millsap has played more minutes, overall. He was injured to start the season, but has been there every damn night for these Jazz, killing it.

Shaq, I'm sorry, but he has to take nights off. And that hurts his team more than it helps, or will help. He's not going to be awesome in June because he took a night off in December, you know that. Meanwhile, the Suns lose when he's not around. Despite his rep as a bench player, Millsap has played 170 more minutes than Shaq this season entering Thursday's Suns game. Assuming O'Neal plays.

The biggest tipping point, for me, is Shaq's defense. He's been awful this season. He's played some of the worst defense I've seen from any player in this league, this year. Egregiously bad. That doesn't mean he's been lazy or indifferent, or that he hasn't made some game-changing defensive plays this season. It just means that, overall ... not so good.

He gets a rep as a trad, low-post rock who supposedly alters shots and keeps other teams from hitting jump hooks over the Suns all night, but the game doesn't work like that anymore. It's 2009, we're watching a league full of screen and rolls and big men that move. And unless Yao Ming or Dwight Howard are in town, the need for someone like Shaq isn't there. And there's a reason that the Nash-era Suns were at their defensive best with Kurt Thomas' nimble feet manning the pivot.

Shaq's going to make the team, it's not a given, but it seems pretty bloody likely, and this choice wasn't made with that knowledge in mind.

This isn't a, "Shaq's in, it's a fait accompli, so let me tell you how good the next in line has been ..."-situation. Millsap's been better. The sheer amount of defensive work that guy has to do to cover for Mehmet Okur? While still keeping his own man in check? The defensive difference is strong enough to overcome the gulf in their points per minute disparity, especially when you consider pace.

Shaq, I think, is a deserving All-Star. But he's hardly the home run people have made him out to be.

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303 Comments

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  1. Peja M
    1. Posted by Peja M Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:14 pm EDT

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    jamison and rondo, i see your point but to me joe johnson is more deserving, and what about rashard lewis, yeah hes on a good team but hes second in scoring and rebounding on the team and not to mention hes playing at the power forward position not his natural position, overall good list, VC isnt my first choice as a forward but still good good list
  2. Travis M
    2. Posted by Travis M Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    I knew Skeets didn't write this once I saw Rajon Rondo on the list.
    RAJON F'ING RONDO!?!
    There goes the credibility to this list.
  3. C J
    3. Posted by C J Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:04 pm EDT

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    Good as usual Dwyer, but I gotta ask: no love for Biedrins?
  4. TGkyuubi
    4. Posted by TGkyuubi Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    pau gasol SHOULD be a lock.
    Lakers have lost like 15 regular season games total since they acquired him.
    Nene? Really? Hahaha cmon. Stop it.
    I'd put in Calderon before i gave it to Rondo
    Rondo is garbage against good teams that show his myriad inadequacies
  5. Anthony
    5. Posted by Anthony Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:36 pm EDT

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    I'm sorry KD, usually I agree with you on these but this is just bogus to me. I could see Durant over Melo, Durant's been having an amazing year and no one outside of OKC and real basketball fans have noticed. But Jamison over and Rondo in the east? I would take Joe Johnson over Rondo any day. Hell, if I were choosing another Celtic I'd take Pierce or Ray-Ray over Rondo. Rondo has been pretty inconsistent this season, and hasn't been playing as well as some of his other Celtic teammates, or Joe Johnson of the Hawks. The Hawks are a top four team in the East, and no All-Star? Joe Johnson HAS to be on this list.
    As for Jamison, he is having a very good year. But I would take Paul Pierce and Ray Allen over Jamison and Carter. Pierce is the reason why the Celtics win games the way they do. And Allen I feel has just been having a better season than Carter, though I'm sure that's debatable.
    In the West, I can see you taking Paul Millsap over Shaq, but over Deron Williams? If any Jazz player deserves to go, it's D-Will. He's deserved to go the past few years, and he still deserves to go now. He's missed some time, but look at the Jazz's record without Boozer. Millsap has helped, but that's all Deron right there. That's my only real gripe here. If Melo hadn't been injured I would have liked to see him over Tony Parker or Deron, but that's the breaks.
  6. Boomhauer
    6. Posted by Boomhauer Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Rondo over Mo Williams? No.
  7. hockeysoccernj
    7. Posted by hockeysoccernj Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    "He's not going to be awesome in June because he took a night off in December, you know that. "
    If that logic were true, then the Suns wouldn't be benching him. Not to mention, you talk about how the Suns lose without Shaq, which would lead one to believe that makes him quite valuable. The Jazz still win without Millsap.
    Oh, and defense in an all-star game? Ben Wallace was the only player in recent memory that made an all-star game because of defensive prowess.
  8. hoopster1688
    8. Posted by hoopster1688 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:20 pm EDT

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    We want biedrins!!!!
  9. AKC
    9. Posted by AKC Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    wow this list sucks
  10. OC
    10. Posted by OC Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    travis you got a problem with rondo?? obviously you haven't watch him play this year.
  11. NDEddieMac
    11. Posted by NDEddieMac Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    No love for your initial sharing brother Kevin Durant? Dude's dropping like 25 a game with nobody around him. Sure Pau is an important part of the Lakers, but when people are more concerned w/ Kobe, and even Odom, it makes life a lil easier. Why no love for the Durantula?
  12. cj1214
    12. Posted by cj1214 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    What about Mo Williams?
  13. tupark82
    13. Posted by tupark82 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:23 pm EDT

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    Carter is having his "best season in years"? Take a look at Carter's stats the past few seasons before you make that statement.
  14. league of crutch
    14. Posted by league of crutch Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:57 pm EDT

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    where. is Kevin Durant. remove Gasol, and put in the kid. he deserves it.
  15. Sinz
    15. Posted by Sinz Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:23 pm EDT

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    Overall, you get no objections from me, especially considering you picked the likes of Devin Harris and Danny Granger, two players having breakout years, but whose teams are below .500. As many NBA fans were, I was also watching Kenny, C-Web, and the Glove debate on what characterizes an all-star and I can care less what your record is (i.e. D Wade last season). When you're having a monster year, you can't go unnoticed and besides, those guys ARE making their teams better regardless of their record. I will disagree with the Vince Carter pick though. Vince's stats have been attributed to the fact that he's no longer got Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson to share the ball with and not to mention the ressurgence of Harris as an elite PG in this league. I'm not sold on Vince's performance this season as one of his best ever. Besides, I still think both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are much more worthy of a spot as much disdain I have for the Celtics. Oh yeah, we can't forget about Rondo either. I don't acre about having 3 reserve PG's on the team, it's not like they have an actual starter anyways...
  16. Sinz
    16. Posted by Sinz Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:23 pm EDT

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    Remove Gasol? Are you nuts?!?! I will admit, Durant is worthy of a spot, but not as a forward. I wouldn't put him over Dirk or Gasol. Not this season at least.
  17. Cents in DC
    17. Posted by Cents in DC Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    Rondo? Really? Why is their no mention of Mo Williams on this list? Has Rondo had games of 33 on the road or 43, 11, and 8 at home? The East PG list top to bottom is Harris, Williams/Nelson, A.I. and then Rondo. Yes, Rondo is the fifth best PG in the conference and you can take that to the bank.
  18. mcwelk
    18. Posted by mcwelk Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    golf clap for Millsap
  19. KD
    19. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    I did, Tupark, because that's sort of my job.
    His o and d ratings are up, and he's having his best pace-adjusted per minute season since his hot play during the second half of the 2004-05 season.
    And Kevin Durant deserves it if we're picking for small forwards alone. But if we're picking for best forward, throw in defense, throw in pace, throw in minutes ... Gasol has been better.
  20. Patrick L
    20. Posted by Patrick L Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:01 pm EDT

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    Lol...In the east rondo and jamison no u have bibby joe johnson paul pierce josh smxith mo williams and even ray allen all have a better shot at makin the team instead of them 2 rondo would have made it if the celtics hadn't gone thru there slump earlier this month and he was averaging almost like 6 turnovers a game and also calderon would go before them also
  21. baselinebmine
    21. Posted by baselinebmine Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    Why is everyone allover Brandon Roy's nutz? I mean, he's solid player on an good team. But there are some changes i would make. Durant gotta be on, Gasol got be off, Bynum playin Better than he is anyway!!!!
    Also I always thought the best 6th man should get some love!!!!!
    And that would would be Jason Terry. Just keepin it real, he has been just as important to the Mavs success as Dirk. JET playing out of his mind right now. He's averaging 2 less points than Roy (20 ppg) and 1 less assist (4app) and playing 4 less minutes per game. BUt im sure you can make the case for other players too. The thought I would drop some knowledge, just keepin it real.
  22. TRON
    22. Posted by TRON Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:52 pm EDT

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    i see where you are going with this, but i feel that there are 2 kinds of allstars ones fans want to and the ones fans need to see. people need to see small market superstars and big names. Durant belongs, Millsap has been a rock. but rondo, and jamison. I feel for jamison playing for that team but still i think no allstar bid this year, send rashard lewis or p.pierce
  23. Elias P
    23. Posted by Elias P Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    You got Pierce, but no Ray Allen ??????? Be serious, Ray Allen is playing out of his mind right now, best shooting guard in the East
  24. Kevin
    24. Posted by Kevin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    PG in the West this season is akin to the American League shortstops some 5 years back, when we had Jeter, Rodriguez, Tejada, & Garciaparra competing for the same all-star nods. If Billups or Williams gets snubbed (and Rondo gets green-lighted) I think it can only point to the conference's unusual glut of talent at the 1.
  25. chris k
    25. Posted by chris k Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    Biedrins????

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