BDL's 2009-10 NBA Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

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Once again back is the incredible ... Ball Don't Lie's NBA previews, outlining offseason moves, projecting win totals, spinning tracks and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Right now, the Los Angeles Clippers.

2008-09 Record: 19-63, fourth place in Pacific Division
Head Coach/Facial Hair: Mike Dunleavy/None
Key Additions: Blake Griffin (notes) (DOH!), Sebastian Telfair (notes), Craig Smith (notes), Rasual Butler (notes)
Key Losses: Zach Randolph (notes)

You gotta love this game. The idea that I can be chomping at the bit for the Clippers to start playing is pretty ridiculous, but you have to love this game.

You have to hate it, too. I hated last year's Clippers. Hated them like few other teams I've ever watched, from the beginning of the season until the end. The squad, executives and coaching personnel included, just showed a flagrant and callous disregard for how the game is meant to be played. How it's supposed to be enjoyed. What you're supposed to do for your fans. What it means to compete.

It was such a hateful team, and I don't throw the H-word around lightly. I may have dropped a couple of H-E-double hockey sticks around the house growing up, but it was ignored. The use and/or overuse of the word "hate" as hyperbole, however, was strictly forbidden. That, and Pink Floyd. My parents knew what they were doing.

And yet, after another whirlwind summer of transaction'ing both far and wide, the Clippers are right back. Taunting us. They're going to get us to watch, even as Blake Griffin doesn't suit up tonight. Because, as it's been for years, for dozens of players and through several coaching regimes, this team could put it all together.

This is a roster worth worrying about, be you a fan of the Clippers or a fan of the opposition. This is a team that could honestly put together a sound rotation and work its way to 45 wins, no sweat. I mean that. Or it could completely and utterly fall flat once again.

It starts with Baron Davis (notes). Last season it ended with Baron Davis. The Warriors of 2007-08 ended with Baron Davis, if you'll remember. And Mike Montgomery's NBA career ended with Baron Davis, when Baron Davis decided to take exactly six 3-pointers per game in 2005-06, despite shooting just 31.5 percent.

Last year was nearly as bad — five threes at 30.2 percent — but it was his overall game that destroyed Los Angeles. Out of shape, disinterested, unable to defend — I had him ranked as the 21st-best point guard in Yahoo! Sports' NBA Preview mag, and he earned it. His defense was that bad. He had a 14.5 PER. He shot 37 percent from the floor.

And that's criminal, because he can be a — what do you reckon — top five point guard? With those skills and that body, he's a mini LeBron James (notes). Take Chris Paul (notes), Deron Williams (notes), Tony Parker (notes), Chauncey Billups (notes), and who do you have left? Steve Nash (notes), perhaps, but that D is worrisome. Devin Harris (notes) is nice. Rajon Rondo (notes) isn't there yet.

A motivated and in-shape Davis? Think about that. If his head and rear are in gear, it's like upgrading from Rodney Stuckey (notes) or T.J. Ford (notes) into Chauncey Billups. That's gotta be worth something.

From there, Eric Gordon (notes). Can really play. The pickings behind him are pretty slim with Mardy Collins (notes) and Ricky Davis (notes) hanging around, but the Clippers can go big with the passable Rasual Butler or small with Gordon out and Davis playing alongside Sebastian Telfair in the backcourt.

Small forward is the weak link, as Al Thornton (notes) just hurts this team on too many levels to be a significant plus. But he can score, however inefficiently, and his presence will be mitigated by Butler, and (we hope) a bit more ball domination from a motivated and efficient Davis. Maybe he could grow into a defensive stopper. He'll have to stop earning three goaltending violations a night.

Marcus Camby (notes) and Chris Kaman (notes), they have holes, but they're also 14 feet of good-to-great center'in going on down there. That's enviable. So is picking Craig Smith off the scrap heap from a cap-conscious Minnesota Timberwolves team. Steve Novak (notes) can shoot and DeAndre Jordan (notes) can really, really jump.

And then there's Blake Griffin, who you can go ahead and get all giddy over. (Ed. note: Ahem.)

The guy is just the real deal. He'll screw some plays up on both ends this season and drive himself batty as he develops a go-to move (he's got so many that, like in Tim Duncan's (notes) rookie year, you'll see him think himself out of the quickest and most effective take), but he's just an absolute knockout of a player who will have a killer first season.

On top of that, the Clippers have more than $22 million in expiring contracts to trade with, or hang onto. The biggest comes in Camby's $9.15 million banger, but a litany of smaller contracts could combine into a trade or series of trades that really puts this team over the top.

But what do we do with all this? What does it mean? As is usually the case around this time of year, anyone who is pretending to know is not worth listening to.

So split the difference, and stay on Baron Davis. As much as the organization might embarrass and Mike Dunleavy might frustrate, he's the absolute key to this team. If he's up for the task — and more often than not in a disappointing career he hasn't been — the Clippers could be back in the postseason for just the third time in 17 years.

Prediction: 33-49

— Kelly Dwyer

Can the Clippers overcome being the Clippers?

It's the annual question with a team owned by Donald Sterling. Even when the Clippers seemingly have talent, something goes wrong. What's clear: The Clippers can't afford another season like the last one. They have turned over nearly the entire roster, they have the momentum of the first pick in the draft and they have promise. Now they need to convert those positive changes to victories.

— Frank Hughes, Yahoo! Sports 2009-10 NBA Preview magazine

• ClipperBlog: "By offloading Zach Randolph onto the Memphis Grizzlies, the Clippers have positioned themselves to have considerable cap flexibility heading into the 2010 offseason. Assuming Sebastian Telfair exercises his player option, the Clippers will have somewhere in the $12-15 million neighborhood once they sign their first-round draft pick. Could the Clippers conceivably throw that money at one of the big-ticket free agents on the market next summer? More important, will the franchise show enough promise and forward momentum this season to make it desirable destination for such a big name?" [more]

• Clips Nation: "... it seems very strange to say this of a 19-win team, but these guys intend to make the playoffs (or at least they did before they lost Griffin for six weeks). And while every NBA team has the playoffs as a goal, in this case most NBA observers seem to agree that the team is at least in the conversation. With the injury to Yao Ming (notes) and the uncertain recovery status of Tracy McGrady (notes), Houston would seem to have excused themselves from the playoff table, leaving an empty seat. Phoenix is the logical choice to replace them, having won 45 games last season. But the simple fact is that the Suns traded an All-Star (people forget that Shaquille O'Neal (notes) was an All-Star last year) for nothing, so while it's nice for the Suns that Amar'e Stoudemire (notes) is back, it seems self-evident that Phoenix took a step back over the summer with Nash and Grant Hill (notes) each getting a year older and Shaq joining the LeBrons. Even if it's too much to ask to make up a 26-game difference (Clippers 19 wins, Suns 45 wins), the simple fact is that there's almost always at least a couple of teams in contention for the final playoff spot until late in the season. The Clippers, on paper, appear to be the logical choice at least to be on the cusp." [more]

• The Baseline: "Not to keep being so vague, but I'm at the mercy of the spirits. At some point in the second half, things will click, not only click but click when games actually matter. The Clippers will find themselves playing meaningful games, trying to squeeze into the playoffs — if only for a week or so. It will be downright haunting, and with this roster, it won't be seen as a fluke or a stepping stone. It'll be a sign that, with the pieces to get it right, this franchise is still occasionally capable of doing so." [more]

The Beatles, "Getting Better"

Believe me, the incongruity of pairing the best band of all-time with the most historically inept franchise in basketball history is almost too much for me to stomach. But when you consider the addition of Blake Griffin, the fact that Baron Davis is going to (supposedly) try this year, and a bunch of draft picks that have somehow panned out, you'll realize this Clippers team at least has a chance to not be terrible. After 19 wins, that's better.

— Trey Kerby, The Blowtorch

The Clippers impact on fantasy leagues will be tied to one thing, and you already know what it is: health. Eric Gordon looks like the safest bet on the roster to stay healthy and be productive. He made great strides as a rookie and is ready to handle a serious scoring load in his second season. He's one of my favorite sixth-round picks. Blake Griffin aggravated a knee injury and could miss as many as six weeks. He's blessed with supreme athletic gifts but his level of success at this level will be completely tied to his ability to avoid major injury that would zap him of that explosiveness. He'll score and rebound the ball as a rookie, but prepare yourself for horrific free-throw shooting and don't count on many steals-plus-blocks. Baron Davis is coming off a horrific showing in 2008-09 and is dealing with a foot injury that may keep him out of the opener. It's an uneasy proposition drafting him in the fifth round, and there certainly shouldn't be any expectations of an approach to his peak with the Warriors.

Marcus Camby continues to post elite per-game stats, but he missed 20 games last season and the 35-year-old is already dealing with an ankle sprain that may keep him out of the opener. All in all, his fifth-round ADP is a good compromise in terms of risk/reward. Check out Chris Kaman's game logs from the past two seasons and you'll find stints of heavy playing time followed by long inactive streaks. If the team can keep his minutes close to 30 per game, he'll have a much better chance of appearing in the majority of games. Fantasy owners would be more than happy with that exchange. If Camby and/or Kaman miss significant time, DeAndre Jordan will step in and should warrant fantasy consideration. Al Thornton scores some points, but it's because he shoots a lot. He's an overrated fantasy option and is more likely to lose his starting job to Rasual Butler than to make significant strides in his age-26 season.