Ball Don't Lie - NBA


With the selection order all set for the 2009 NBA Draft, Eamonn Brennan of The Dagger takes a look at what the 14 lottery teams might do come June 25 ... if — and that's a big if — they don't trade their pick.

No. 1: Los Angeles Clippers ....... Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
Why: You don't need me to tell you why. Even if you didn't see a second of college hoops this season — and come on, BDL readers, I know you at least saw some tourney action, right? — you've already seen enough highlight clips to make the point clear: Blake Griffin is easily the best player in this draft. He's as close to a can't-miss power forward prospect as there is. With the possible exception of defense, Griffin is good at everything: he can shoot, he has an array of post-moves, he's preternaturally athletic (ESPN'er Fran Frischilla once said his leaps look like a "dump truck on a trampoline"), and he's infamous for his insane workout ethic. He'll be a good pro. Probably a great one.

No. 2: Memphis Grizzlies ....... Ricky Rubio, PG, DKV Joventut
Why: Because he's 18 years old, and some people think he'll be the best point guard in the world? As he didn't play college hoops, and the only time I've caught glimpses of him was during bleary-eyed Olympic viewings in Beijing last summer, that's good enough for me.

No. 3: Oklahoma City Thunder ....... Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut
Why: Because 7-feet-3-inches rarely comes in this athletic a package. Thabeet had a great senior season for UConn, averaging 4.2 blocks and 10 rebounds per game for the Huskies. He's not a great scorer. His hands are a bit questionable. And he's physically susceptible to girthy big men like Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair, who torched him in Big East play. (Yeah, I just called Blair "girthy." Jay Bilas, eat your heart out.) But Thabeet is also loaded with potential; he's only been playing hoops for about five years, so his learning curve is different. There might be plenty more talent left to tap into.

No. 4: Sacramento Kings ....... DeMar DeRozan, SG, USC
Why: Because Kobe comparisons don't come lightly. Look, DeRozan might have served himself well by staying in the draft another year, but there's no denying his gifts: he's 6-foot-7-inches with a rangy game, a good amount of offensive polish for a 19-year-old, and freakish athleticism. DeRozan might be the highest-risk, highest-reward pick in the draft. He could turn into one of those really good pro wing players (Bryant, Tracy McGrady(notes), Vince Carter(notes)) or he could go bust. His one year in college wasn't enough to settle the argument. But he is talented. He is definitely talented.

No. 5: Washington Wizards ....... Jordan Hill, C, Arizona
Why: Because he's the next best thing to Blake Griffin or Hasheem Thabeet (assuming, that is, that Wizards fans wanted one of the two). Like the two players immediately preceding him, Hill is still a work in progress. He needs to improve in a lot of areas. His 2008-09 season with Arizona wasn't exactly gangbusters. Still, he's massive and athletic and his wingspan is roughly the length of my apartment, so it's not hard to see what NBA scouts like so much. The only problem is that it's yet to translate on the court.

No. 6: Minnesota Timberwolves ....... James Harden, SG, Arizona State
Why: Because James Harden's swag is unstoppable. Here's another draft enigma: Will James Harden's weird, jittery offensive game translate to the pros? Will his set three-pointers be as difficult to guard in the NBA as they were in college? Will he be able to get to the hoop, despite his limited athleticism? Will his legendary "basketball IQ" make up for these faults? I do not know. But I do know that James Harden might be the most stylish player in the draft, and for that, he deserves some credit.

No. 7: Golden State Warriors ....... Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Memphis
Why: Because Evans can do it all. Last year, Memphis struggled in their pre-conference schedule. John Calipari switched his prized recruit, 6-foot-6 shooting guard Tyreke Evans, to point guard, the idea being that with Evans starting the break, the wasteful extra pass it took to get the ball in his hands on offense was no longer necessary. Evans has plenty to work on — especially his shooting; his form looks like he broke his elbow and then tried to do shooting drills in cast, or something — but there were few scarier college hoops sights in '08-09 than Tyreke on the break with that high dribble in his hand.

No. 8: New York Knicks ....... Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson
Why: Because Curry proved himself as much in 2008-09 as he did in his famous NCAA tournament. Last year, after Curry decided to forgo the NBA draft and return for his junior season, he began handling Davidson's point guard responsibilities as well. This served two purposes. One, it allowed Curry to have the ball in his hands as frequently as possible after the Wildcats graduated former point Jason Richards(notes). Two, it allowed Curry to prove he could run the point in the NBA. Surprisingly, he's almost as good a passer as he is a shooter. Sure, he's not as athletic as some others in the draft, but few players are as polished and pretty. Besides, athleticism is what kept the big boys from recruiting him out of high school. We all saw how well that went.

No. 9: Toronto Raptors ....... Brandon Jennings, PG, Lottomatica Roma
Why: Because Europe didn't break Brandon Jennings. For all the talk of how difficult Jennings' Europe experiment would be — and how difficult, for a time, it was — Jennings now appears ready to be a starting point guard in the NBA. It's a shame we didn't get to watch him stateside.

No. 10: Milwaukee Bucks ....... Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
Why: Because Lawson is finally getting his due. After playing in the shadow of Tyler Hansbrough for years, 2008-09 saw Lawson become the Tar Heels' greatest weapon. He was the fastest player in college basketball in '08-09; his blazing drives to the rim, where he finishes with preternatural strength and body control, single-handedly won UNC more than one game last year. His shooting could be better, and he occasionally struggled with some health issues, but if you need a guard to push the pace and get to the rim in transition, Lawson is your guy.

No. 11: New Jersey Nets ....... Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Duke
Why: Because Gerald Henderson harnessed his game. Before 2008-09, Henderson was the picture of a raw athlete. He wasn't a great shooter or passer, and his contributions came mostly in rebounding and defense from the small forward spot. Last year, though, Henderson pulled it all together, developing a nice mid-range jump shot and a few go-to offensive moves. Add that to his great size and athleticism — he was among the most athletic players in the country in college — and you've got a still-improving player who's probably already good enough to contribute right away.

No. 12: Charlotte Bobcats ....... Earl Clark, SF, Louisville
Why: Because Clark is a guard with a 6-foot-9-inch body. Yes, Clark is that tall, but his ability to handle the ball and make outside shots — part of what made Louisville so difficult to solve for so many teams in 2008-09 — ought to be incredibly valuable to a pro club. Remember the days when everyone was drafting rangy Garnett-esque big men? Clark is like the mini version of that strategy. If his college days are any proof, it should be a good thing.

No. 13: Indiana Pacers ....... Johnny Flynn, PG, Syracuse
Why: Because Johnny Flynn quits for no man. I'm not a big fan of talking about players in terms of their "make-up." It always just seems like a fancy, scouty way of saying "he was nice to me when I talked to him that one time." But Flynn is different. His team-oriented, let's-do-this make-up — seen most obviously in Syracuse's legendary six-OT game versus UConn in the Big East tournament, where he played 67 minutes and hit all 16 of his free throw attempts — is perfect for a point guard. Plus he's, like, good at basketball.

No. 14: Phoenix Suns ....... DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh
Why: Because I want to talk about DeJuan Blair for a second. Blair, to me, will be one of the most interesting draftees this year. In 2008-09, Blair rebounded at a legendary level, grabbing around 25 percent of his teams offensive rebound attempts, more than many entire teams. That sort of rebounding ability — even in an undersized, maybe-slightly-overweight packaged — has to be worth something to NBA teams, right? Yes? No?

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  1. mattfransen99
    1. Posted by mattfransen99 Wed May 20, 2009 12:02 pm EDT

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    minnesota timberwolves will obviously make a mistake in the draft as that has always happened in the past.
    ie trading ray allen, oj mayo and brandon roy. god we're terrible
  2. Peter D
    2. Posted by Peter D Wed May 20, 2009 12:05 pm EDT

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    no chance raps take jennings
  3. xavierchilly
    3. Posted by xavierchilly Wed May 20, 2009 12:13 pm EDT

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    i got faith in the t-wolves.. they have 3 first round picks this year and they obviously need a true point guard, hopefully they trade up and go for ricky rubio
  4. Dwc
    4. Posted by Dwc Wed May 20, 2009 12:14 pm EDT

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    If only $tern would allow high school kids in the draft, there would be so much more talent and some interesting picks. John Wall would be a top five player...
  5. phil a
    5. Posted by phil a Wed May 20, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

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    blake griffin ...lock down no 1 pick
  6. mcwelk
    6. Posted by mcwelk Wed May 20, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

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    Nice job. #10 too high for Lawson; try Wake's James Johnson
  7. dan
    7. Posted by dan Wed May 20, 2009 12:19 pm EDT

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    No chance clips take griffen. That would be the right thing to do. But the clips are by far the worst managed team in the history of the NBA. I would venture to guess that they take ty hansbourough who wasnt even on this list. That means memphis gets griffen.
  8. glok
    8. Posted by glok Wed May 20, 2009 12:20 pm EDT

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    no Tyler Hansbrough ?
  9. Anton
    9. Posted by Anton Wed May 20, 2009 12:25 pm EDT

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    #1 - while I agree, Kevin Love has been good. Oj Mayo seems to just be a scorer and it would've probably been the season same results, especially if Al Jefferson got injured had they not made the trade for Love.
  10. FW1
    10. Posted by FW1 Wed May 20, 2009 12:25 pm EDT

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    As a Knicks fan, Stephen Curry will be a good addition, but we still need LeBron.
  11. pjcsc43
    11. Posted by pjcsc43 Wed May 20, 2009 12:26 pm EDT

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    I'm a Celtics, not a Kings fan. That being said, I will have nothing more to do with the NBA as long as this so-called "lottery" exists. What a total joke. If the method had any merit whatsoever, the NFL, MLB and NHL would not do it otherwise. And how many times can the Clippers (or the Magic) "win" the "lottery?" Stern sending the #1 to LA is not surprising, but I actually thought he was going to award it to his Knicks again. The most any team should be able to move up or drop is one position. Anything else is a competitive fraud.
    And get the calls right! Nuggets-Mavs was a joke, and there is the horrible Wunderlich officiating a playoff game just days after the NBA admits he blew an entire playoff game along with the series. Where is the accountability? Could the officials have favored the Lakers any more than they did in the rockets series, regarding Artest/Kobe? No. This league has become a rotten joke. There is a very bad egg in the middle of this sport, and his name is Stern.
  12. JOJO
    12. Posted by JOJO Wed May 20, 2009 12:26 pm EDT

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    hope the wiz take harden...him in arenas would be NASTY!!
  13. SC
    13. Posted by SC Wed May 20, 2009 12:26 pm EDT

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    Johnny flynn to pacers would be a helluva steal
  14. cv03
    14. Posted by cv03 Wed May 20, 2009 12:27 pm EDT

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    Minnesota trades the #6 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft for Joe Smith!!!!!
  15. The Rockstar
    15. Posted by The Rockstar Wed May 20, 2009 12:28 pm EDT

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    i would select Tyler Hansbrough first overall. why? By far the best GPA in the draft. and has completed over 100 of community service. thats a great NBA player.
  16. J W
    16. Posted by J W Wed May 20, 2009 12:28 pm EDT

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    Are you kidding me at #7? The last thing the Warriors need is another SG, especially one who can't shoot. No chance in hell Warriors are taking Tyreke, not with Nellie running things.
  17. FW1
    17. Posted by FW1 Wed May 20, 2009 12:29 pm EDT

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    Seen Tyreke Evans play high school ball in Aston, PA. Homeboy is nice, but he better have some vets to push him or he may fall thru the cracks.
  18. Hambone
    18. Posted by Hambone Wed May 20, 2009 12:30 pm EDT

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    I believe Wall could have been eligible this year, due to going to prep school for a 5th year.
    My 10 year prediction: James Harden, journeyman, will be playing the role of veteran glue guy on a contender in the playoffs. Some 18 year-old kids will start talking about him, look him up online, and due an enormous spit take when they realize he was a top 5 draft pick. He's the Joe Smith Lite of this draft: I'm very sure he will be a solid player, but i'm very sure he will never justify his draft position.
  19. Capitan Pantelones del Fuego!
    19. Posted by Capitan Pantelones del Fuego! Wed May 20, 2009 12:32 pm EDT

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    Tyler is going to be about as mediocre a pro player as there is in the NBA. For good reason, nobody is talking about him as a lottery pick. He can't steamroll the big boys like he did in college, so he'll be useless.
  20. mikesmaluck
    20. Posted by mikesmaluck Wed May 20, 2009 12:36 pm EDT

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    thabeet wasn't a senior. get it right.
  21. Adam
    21. Posted by Adam Wed May 20, 2009 12:38 pm EDT

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    gap between the east and west is just gettin wider,
  22. They call me... Tater Salad
    22. Posted by They call me... Tater Salad Wed May 20, 2009 12:39 pm EDT

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    Bobcats will take another NC kid. No question.
  23. Adam
    23. Posted by Adam Wed May 20, 2009 12:41 pm EDT

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    stern is ruining the NBA .
  24. Ritz
    24. Posted by Ritz Wed May 20, 2009 12:41 pm EDT

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    Harden would be a mistake please take curry I think he's as good as rubio and then u could use you other picks to build a much needed bench and get rid of the likes of madden and cardinal.
  25. Aleks A
    25. Posted by Aleks A Wed May 20, 2009 12:41 pm EDT

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    Pjcsc43, you made me laugh. Yes, they messed up the officiating of the Nuggets-Mavericks game. Get over it. Artest and Kobe was just drama in the series. Artest made stupid decisions to get ejected, technicals, etc. Kobe is at least a little more disciplined. And because you're a Celtics fan, I guess you can complain all you want, since your defending champs lost in the 2nd round. Be happy they got that far. The lottery is what it is. I for one think DeMar DeRozan isn't that special, he had good games in the post-season, that's about it. During the season, he was very, very inconsistent. But hey, what do I know, I'm only in high school.

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