Roto Arcade

No doubt fireworks are on the way with the holiday weekend upon us, but there weren't a lot of explosions from the Thursday activity on the sandlots. Here's a peek at the notes I collected.

• Given how Albert Pujols has ripped through the National League over the decade, he's been walked less than you might suspect. Last year was the first time he collected more than 100 free passes (including 34 intentional walks), though he's going to sail past those numbers this year, sitting at 64 walks with 28 intentional. The Giants shifted their strategy after Pujols homered twice on Tuesday – Sir Albert received four intentional passes over the final two games of the series, including one in the first inning of Wednesday's game. Ryan Ludwick stands to benefit if Pujols starts receiving the "Bonds treatment" – he drove in three runs over the past two games, and has started to take some better cuts this week.

• Pittsburgh outfielder Garrett Jones has spent most of this decade in the minors and his prospect status expired a while ago (he just turned 28), but that doesn't mean we can discount him out of hand. He was in the midst of a solid campaign (.307, 12 homers, 14 steals) before the Pirates recalled him Wednesday, and Jones made an impact in his second start, collecting three extra-base hits (double, triple, homer) against the Mets. Jones batted third in his Pittsburgh debut and fifth Thursday, for what it's worth. You could make a worse spec play in deeper mixed groups.

• John Lackey was excellent for the third time in four starts Thursday (8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K) and he's probably someone I priced too low on the current Shuffle Up and Deal dollar values. He's gone at least seven innings in all but one of his last eight starts; when Lackey is right, this is a horse who gives you a chance to win every five days. He's going to allow his share of fly balls and homers, sure, but with his strikeout rate rallying back of late (31 over his last 30 innings), there's no reason to be paranoid here. Lackey should miss enough bats to be successful. Read More >>

Here's a look at all the starting-pitching options that look ownable in a mixed league right now. What's happened on the field to this point is merely an audition; what's below, in theory, would be my cheat-sheet if I had a new draft tonight. Players at the same cost are essentially even, and assume a 5x5 format, as always.

Next week I'll price the outfielders. Your respectful and intelligent disagreement is welcome in the comments, as always.

$30 Tim Lincecum
$28 Zack Greinke
$28 Roy Halladay
$28 Dan Haren
$26 Chad Billingsley
$26 Johan Santana
$26 Yovani Gallardo
$25 Josh Beckett
$25 Chris Carpenter
$25 Jon Lester
$24 CC Sabathia
$24 Justin Verlander
$23 Felix Hernandez
$22 Josh Johnson
$22 Javier Vazquez
$21 Cliff Lee
$21 Matt Cain
$20 Matt Garza
$20 James Shields

We're all flying blind on Santana. He just had the worst full month of his career. I know all about regression to the mean, but what if there's an injury here? I've called all my scouting and double-secret probation favors on this one, no one knows. … I tried to get Billingsley in all of my leagues and went 0-for. That's not fun. … If I knew Carpenter wouldn't break all year, he'd be a lot higher. But health is a skill, too. … Cain still walks too many guys and he's been cheating his peripherals all season. He's on my two most important teams, but if a good offer came along, I'd be selling. Read More >>

Ludicrously early mock drafting is a time-honored tradition here at Roto Arcade, and it continues this week. We're taking a look at the early rounds of '09 fantasy drafts, assuming standard rotisserie settings. Your drafters are Matt Romig, Matt Buser, Justin Phan, Brandon Funston, Dalton Del Don and Andy Behrens.

For earlier results, follow the links: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3.

Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors GF – Round 4, Pick 1. There’s a give and take here. Captain Jack is good for 20 points, six boards and seven assists per game, and he’ll also get his hand in an occasional passing lane (career 1.3 steals per game). He’s also an erratic volume shooter and a high-dribbler, which makes him a triple threat on every possession – he can score, he can take an ill-advised shot in early offense or he can turn it over (career-worst 3.9 per game in 2008-09). The last two picks on this team (Garnett, Rondo) don’t shoot the three, so we’ll take some of the negative here to inherit Jackson’s 5-6 trey attempts per game. (Romig)

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs SG – Round 4, Pick 1. Ginobili was a top-30 player in per-game averages last year in a season cut short by injuries that delayed the start and forced an early end to his campaign. The Spurs got better as a team with the acquisition of Richard Jefferson and if there’s a guy who won’t skip a beat with a new sheriff in town it’s Ginobili, who does a little bit of everything and earns his buckets through hard work. He may never be a 19-point scorer again, but there’s a comfortable floor here and the steals and 3s aren’t likely going anywhere. (Mig)

Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors G - Round 4, Pick 3. I wanted nothing to do with Ellis this past season, but he deserves credit for gutting out 25 games on his ankle, with reasonable production to boot (per-game rank of 85). Another six months of rest and rehab should do wonders for him in 2009-10, and Ellis is one of the few players on the Warriors' roster who you don't have to worry about "the Genius" suddenly pulling from the rotation on a whim. Ellis' season rank was 23 in 2007-08, and I'm using pick 39 on him here. (Buser) Read More >>

That's right, Yahoo! offers FREE LIVE SCORING, beginning now. As the marketing propaganda says, "You Talked. We Listened. We've improved StatTracker and made it free." Consumer surveys apparently revealed that our users prefer stuff that costs nothing versus stuff that costs $9.99. Odd but true.

Sign up today. It's quick, free and painless.

If you've already bought a Yahoo! PLUS league, you'll essentially get an early-bird special: Expect a full refund of your purchase price with continued access to features that remain unique to PLUS, like trade review, draft kits, scouting reports and league prizes. The new cost of PLUS is just $29.95. Not such a bad deal for those with a fondness for bobbleheads. 

Free StatTracker is clearly exciting, but that isn't the only enhancement to the game. New free features for '09 include the following: Read More >>

Tonight let's crack open a Sleeman Dark, dust off our copies of Up To Here, make trade offers for Joey Votto, and give long French names to our fantasy teams.

It's Canada Day, everyone. Rejoice!

Toronto's Ricky Romero celebrated by shutting down the Rays -- baseball's highest-scoring team -- and extending his streak of scoreless innings to 20. His change-up was, as the kids say, filthy. (Highlights). Romero lowered his season ERA to 2.84 and his WHIP to 1.24. He now has 61 Ks in 72.2 innings. You can't really call Romero unusually lucky, since he entered Wednesday's start with a .292 BABIP.

Nonetheless, the left-hander has been dropped in over 2,000 leagues today, because streamers have no patience whatsoever. They just kicked an excellent pitcher to the waiver wire. Let's hope those six innings from Doug Davis on Thursday are worth it.

Those of you who kept Romero rostered will get two more starts before the All-Star break (at TB, at BAL). You don't mess with a streak. So far this month, the 24-year-old Romero has delivered terrific fantasy lines against Texas, Philadelphia (twice) and now the Rays. He's earned your trust.

Elsewhere in le base-ball d'imagination... Read More >>

Like Lastings Milledge before him, Elijah Dukes was shipped to Triple-A on Wednesday. Austin Kearns is out of options, so Dukes gets the trip to Syracuse. 

Washington is putting on a clinic in how to reduce the trade value of young, talented outfielders -- and the 25-year-old Dukes is clearly on the block. This from MLB.com's Bill Ladson:

The Nationals have been unhappy with their outfielders for quite some time. They have come to the conclusion that Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham belong in the American League as designated hitters ...

Really? Stunning. Let's continue: 

... and Elijah Dukes makes too many fundamental mistakes. ... Rizzo is far from done in terms of making deals. He is looking for a starting shortstop. The Nationals feel that Cristian Guzman, who is on the trade block, has lost a few steps. ... The team is also looking to trade Dukes, and that may be hard to do because he comes with a lot of off-the-field baggage. Who they want for Dukes is not known.

Dukes went 2-for-3 with a run scored last night, and he gunned down another base-runner. (Video here. Close play, nice throw). But he's struggled since returning from a hamstring injury (.586 OPS in June) and the Nats are playing .293 baseball, so they're out of patience. The future apparently belongs to Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris.

Ladson also reports that Washington GM Mike Rizzo offered the following quote while announcing the Milledge/Morgan deal:

"We are open for business."

Ludicrously early mock drafting is a time-honored tradition here at Roto Arcade, and it continues this week. We're taking a look at the early rounds of '09 fantasy drafts, assuming standard rotisserie settings. Your drafters are Matt Romig, Matt Buser, Justin Phan, Brandon Funston, Dalton Del Don and Andy Behrens.

For earlier results, follow the links: Round 1, Round 2.

Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers GF - Round 3, Pick 1. Iguodala has played all 82 games in back-to-back seasons and -- like the other two pieces of this roster (Paul, Wallace) -- he fills the stat sheet thoroughly. Last year, the 25-year-old gave you 18.8 points, 5.7 boards, 5.3 assists, one three-pointer and 1.6 steals per game. A return to the '06-'07 free throw percentage (82.0) would be appreciated; Iguodala shot just 70.3 percent from the line after the break in '09.

It's no picnic drafting at the turn, by the way. Center is a tricky fill. None of the available names seems worthy of the 25th overall pick, but I'll listen to arguments in comments. (Behrens)

Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets SF - Round 3, Pick 2. With LeBron and Butler already rostered, perhaps 'Melo isn't the right fit here. But my fondness for elite scorers trumped my fondness for Derrick Rose (he'll be great, not merely good). And of course we're always looking to please Trigga Play. That's secretly the core mission of this blog. Anthony is a high-volume shooter who can still deliver excellent percentages (see '05-'06 to '07-'08). He'll also give you seven boards, a steal and a three. (AB)

Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks G - Round 3, Pick 3. Johnson’s 2008-09 campaign was nearly identical to his previous season, and when you’re averaging 21.4 points, 5.8 assists, 4.4 boards and 1.9 threes, that’s a good thing. He may have to lose some shot attempts to the newly acquired Jamal Crawford, but few guards offer Johnson’s consistency and durability. (Del Don) Read More >>

There's no reason to force a theme on you tonight – obviously June 30, 2009 will go down in world history as the day the Yankees acquired Eric Hinske. If the shock has worn off from that deal and you're ready to move onto other stories and players, enjoy the bulleted content below.

• It's time to start collecting theories on Johan Santana's slump. He lost again at Milwaukee Tuesday (6 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K), and he has just 18 strikeouts over his last six turns (to go along with a 6.19 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the worst full month of his career). Is his surgically-repaired left knee giving him a problem? Is it a blister? Is he tipping his pitches? Perhaps it's a concentration issue – somehow, Santana has issued five walks to opposing pitchers over the course of the year. Let's collect as much intelligence as possible and get through this together, gamers. Santana's next turn comes on the weekend at Philadelphia.

• The Rangers finally had a laugher at Arlington, throwing nine runs, four homers and five steals at Joe Saunders and the Angels. Marlon Byrd slugged two of the homers, while Elvis Andrus swiped four of the bags. The only Texas starter left out of the fun was, predictably, Chris Davis; he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and is down to .202. What would it take to get this guy benched or demoted?

• Derek Lowe took a step forward with a quality start against the Phillies (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K), though the execution wasn't as tidy as the numbers might suggest. Lowe's command was off most of the night – although he had just two unintentional walks, he was missing his target consistently – and the Phillies had him in trouble just about every inning. It's too early to say the sky is falling on this established pro, but at this point I'm expecting that his end-of-year ERA will be 4.00 or higher and everyone knows there's not a lot of strikeout upside here. If he beats Washington on the weekend, get aggressive and downshift into sell mode.Read More >>

OK, everyone should be familiar with the gimmick by now: Two experts debate the relative merits of two disgraced former Yahoo! cover athletes similarly useful fantasy options. Today we're considering a pair of wide receivers who used to occupy the top tier at their position, but are now lucky to be clinging to the third (or possibly fourth) tier. Chad Ochocinco and Br ylo  Edw rds are both among...

Whoops, sorry. Somehow we dropped a bunch of letters from Braylon's name. Weird. Just dropped 'em. They were right there, but we couldn't hold on. Strange. Hmm.  

Pianowski says: It's not difficult to build a smear campaign against Braylon Edwards. He dropped passes by the truckload in 2008, and the Browns offense couldn’t find the end zone with a GPS system. Chad Ochocinco’s quarterback has Pro Bowl upside, while Edwards has to deal with a journeyman (Derek Anderson) and an unproven kid (Brady Quinn).

That said, fantasy success is often tied to having a short memory. I’m happy to play the opportunity and talent card on Edwards, getting a tasty price after last year’s crash landing.

By picking Edwards you get a receiver who’s two inches taller, five years younger, and infinitely less likely to go AWOL. Cleveland’s passing game will feature Edwards no matter what – there’s no proven No. 2 receiver and Kellen Winslow is gone. Edwards is also playing for his next contract. And as ugly as the 2008 stats and pictures were, he is just two years removed from a game-changing season (1289 yards, 16 TDs).

Johnson, err, Ochocinco has to fight for his looks in Cincinnati, where Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry share the field. Carson Palmer is saying positive things about Chad now, but two months back he seemed fed up with the veteran wideout. Even in 85’s best days, he’s never been a dynamic touchdown guy – he hit double-digits just once. When you’re selecting that No. 2 or No. 3 receiver for your roster, it’s no time to play it safe. Edwards has the potential to win your league for you; that tag no longer applies to Sir Whines a Lot in Cincinnati.