Thu Jun 25, 2009 2:50 am EDT

This could work. It really could. It probably won't work,
massive elements would have to undergo massive shifts in character, and very
quickly, but it can work.
As has been rumored since February, with interest from both sides getting hot and heavy during this month's Finals, Shaquille O'Neal(notes) has been sent to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Sasha Pavlovic(notes), Ben Wallace(notes), a second-round draft pick, and a good chunk (though not nearly the maximum allowed, $3 million) of cash.
Even with Shaq on the wrong end of a legendary career, the idea of him suiting up next to LeBron James(notes) is still an image that tends to astonish. Even if we've had months to picture Shaquille in a Cleveland uniform. Even if I'm not entirely convinced the guy should suit up next to James in the Cavaliers' starting lineup.
First, let's get into the specifics of the deal. Phoenix couldn't even make the playoffs last year, and even though Amar'e Stoudemire's(notes) season-ending injury and the failure that was the Terry Porter coaching hire helped, this team was struggling to make the bracket even when things were at their best. The foundation, as presently constructed, was hardly championship-caliber.
Worse, Suns owner Robert Sarver has been pinching pennies for years, forcing his personnel chiefs to trade away all sorts of young talent, so it became obvious that the Suns would be expected to do whatever necessary this summer in order to trim payroll. And with this trade, man, they cut a good chunk out.
As you've probably heard, Pavlovic's contract is only partially guaranteed for next season. So while the Cavs were able to use the full amount of his deal to make salaries match for trading purposes, the Suns will only be on the hook for about $1.5 million of his potentially-$5 million deal next season.
Toss in the disparity between Wallace's contract and the money owed O'Neal next year (about $21 million), the cash sent Phoenix's way ($500,000), and the luxury tax savings? The Suns get a payroll break that dives well into eight figures.
That's obviously a franchise-turning amount. It won't stop Sarver's penny-pinching, something that may have cost his team a championship in years past, but it does mean the Suns can likely keep Stoudemire, and won't have to be faced with the (admittedly, slim) possibility of declining the final year on Steve Nash's(notes) contract, should they have failed to dump O'Neal or Stoudemire.
The savings go even further if Wallace decides to follow through on his musings about retirement, which would mean all of Wallace's $14 million dollar salary for 2009-10 would come off the books. Don't bet on it, though. Wallace can be a bit of a drama queen, hence the public musings, and nobody walks away from money like that.
Cleveland, though it gave up nothing of consequence (Pavlovic and Wallace would barely have played in 2009-10; and the Nets weren't sending Cleveland Vince Carter(notes) for the same package sent to Phoenix), somehow seems to be the team with everything to lose. Funny how that happens.
It doesn't have to happen, mind you.
Cleveland could get this right. Shaq could get it right. Everything could work out, perfectly.
For one, Shaquille could be a man about this, and replace Wallace's minutes. Add a few more ticks. He could go for 24 a game, splitting time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas(notes). It would work, if he would be willing to try.
And though you may have been embarrassed to watch Big Z work during the last round of Cleveland's playoff run, understand that he's just a small step beyond Shaq at this point when it comes to production, once pace and minutes are accounted for. That's the truth.
And though he missed time last season and has a reputation for being brittle, Ilgauskas has been one of the most counted-on centers of his generation over the last seven years, while O'Neal ... hasn't.
And though I've had to constantly remind myself that O'Neal won a championship three years ago while acting as his team's third-leading scorer in the Finals, you just never get the feeling that O'Neal will handle this the right way. Assuming he handles anything the right way, these days. Hell, his post-Finals Tweet to Kobe Bryant(notes) was as self-serving and transparent as anything Bryant has ever been accused of.
Worst? The Cavaliers have become an organization that refuses to get tough with its superstars. There's not a lot of accountability, there. It's hard to imagine beleaguered Cavs coach Mike Brown even telling Anderson Varejao(notes) off after a bum play, much less Shaquille O'Neal, star of stars. And he is the star of stars, mind you.
James is the best player in the game, and he knows what Warren Buffet prefers as an after dinner liqueur, but no amount of half-court heaves made in Steve Kroft's presence can allow him to topple O'Neal's current brand of stardom. Even with Shaq's game coming at a reduced rate. Shaq is the bigger name, here. He won't sell more jerseys or be the first guy the press head toward in the locker room, but let's be clear about the dynamic in Cleveland.
The on-court stuff? No, Shaq isn't going to help Cleveland defend Orlando's screen-and-roll. But can we get to what counts, here?
Cleveland's big problem wasn't Orlando's screen-and-roll, during Orlando's 6-3 run against the Cavaliers during the regular and postseason. Cleveland's problem was scoring on the NBA's best defense, a fact overlooked by a media that plain doesn't like talking about defense.
Dwight Howard(notes) was a beast in the Eastern Conference finals, but the healthiest chunk of his offensive output came off of isolation play, and not even isolation play set up by a Hedo Turkoglu(notes)-inspired screen-and-roll followed by the rest of the Magic clearing out. Howard wasn't killing the Cavs hitting pick-and-pop jumpers, dammit. He was scoring one-on-one. Something that won't happen as easily with Shaq there. O'Neal has done quite well, defensively, on Howard in the past.
One step further? It took an inspired defensive effort (and, if I'm honest, Trevor Ariza(notes) being allowed to play pretty physically, with a bit of hand-checking) from the Lakers to stop Orlando's screen-and-roll attack. That's after the team took that attack all the way to the Finals. Shaq's not the answer for it, but outside of a Laker defensive frontcourt that looks as scary as anything in this league, what is?
So don't fawn over the reaction to this deal on Thursday, as media-types fall all over themselves to actually talk Xs and Os and discuss the screen-and-roll thing to death. Don't reward smugness. Unless it's coming from me. And when it's coming from me, let's call it, "assured confidence," ‘kay?
Again, in terms of a sheer upgrade, this is a HUGE upgrade for the Cavaliers, for no price at all. I mean that.
Ben Wallace played 23.5 minutes per game last season for Cleveland, he shot 44.5 percent, he made 42 percent of his free throws, and he scored 2.9 points with 6.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game.
If Shaq plays 23.5 minutes per game next year for Cleveland? He's not going to average that. He's going to be much, much better. And Wallace, let's be honest, can be crappy on defense these days.
Let's say Big Z replaces Wallace's 23.5 minutes. He's going to destroy Big Ben's marks, with Shaq then replacing Big Z's 27.2 minutes per game from last season, and improving on Ilgauskas' already stellar figures. This could be huge. This could really, really work.
And if it doesn't work? Can we promise ourselves that we'll be nuanced in our assessment of the Cavaliers?
Let's say Shaq barely makes it past 55 games. Let's say one of Cleveland's guards tails off. Let's say somebody gets injured. Let's say Big Z's production arc takes an unexpected dive. It's not going to all be on Shaq. Any decline will probably have nothing to do with Shaq.
The Cavs won 66 games last year because James had a regular season for the ages, and was finally surrounded by above-average teammates as opposed to Big Z and a series of bad rotation players (Pavlovic, Larry Hughes(notes), Eric Snow(notes)). They also stunk in the regular season against Orlando, and stunk in the regular season against Los Angeles. Know why? The Lakers and Magic are better teams. Better teams that lost significant parts to injury, and didn't win as many games as a healthy Cavs outfit.
It's a team sport. It's not an individual sport, and it's not a 2-on-2 tourney. So let's not be stupidly simple about things if the Cavs fall short again. They were supposed to lose to the Magic last month. The Magic were the better team.
I don't know who the better team is, at this point, with Shaq on board. Because if Brown does his job and O'Neal finally learns to respect authority and clears the lane, then this could work.
And when you factor in what Cleveland gave up? Two non-rotation players who contribute absolutely nothing, for a center who contributed 18 points and over eight rebounds in only 30 minutes a game last year? Come on. You have to make that deal. Make that deal, and force the coach to earn his salary. Force the big man who talks a big game to earn his, as well.
So before we sit back and watch everyone get it wrong, let's warm ourselves to the possibilities of what could be. Because this thing could be something pretty special.
And if it isn't pretty special? Shaq's got an expiring contract. I'm sure Vince Carter will be just as available next February.
Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Posted Nov 25 2009
Posted Nov 25 2009
Posted Nov 25 2009
Edited by MJD
Edited by 'Duk
Edited by J.E. Skeets
Edited by Greg Wyshynski
Edited by Matt Hinton
Edited by E. Brennan
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Steve Cofield
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Andy Behrens
326 Comments
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fix'd shaq is washed up
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Anyone who disagrees are dumb and didn't watch the Suns Last season. He was the ONLY player that played well night in and night out.
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This could give Shaq another Kobe-less title.
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The Cleveland fans will have the chamnpion. I'm from Oberlin, Ohio there a part of me still a hometown Kid at heart Go Cavs
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LBJ will never win a ring without SHAQ... cant wait to hear this from him! LOL!
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