Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Once again back is the incredible ... Ball Don't Lie's NBA previews, outlining offseason moves, projecting win totals, spinning tracks and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Today, the Dallas Mavericks.

2008-09 Record: 50-32, third place in Southwest Division
Head Coach/Facial Hair: Rick Carlisle/None
Key Additions: Shawn Marion(notes), Drew Gooden(notes), Tim Thomas(notes), Quinton Ross(notes), Kris Humphries(notes), Rodrigue Beaubois(notes), Nathan Jawai(notes), Jake Voskuhl(notes)
Key Losses: Brandon Bass(notes), Antoine Wright(notes), Ryan Hollins(notes), Devean George(notes), Jerry Stackhouse(notes), Gerald Green(notes)

I'm not entirely sure why I like these Mavericks as much as I do. There's a very real chance the bottom falls out for this squad, that certain aspects of the team just fall flat, and that the squad barely musters a record above .500.

The team could tune out Rick Carlisle. Jason Kidd(notes), Dirk Nowitzki(notes), Erick Dampier(notes) and Shawn Marion could see age catch up to them. Jason Terry's(notes) hot-shooting ways could come to an end. Injuries could hit hard. The rotations just might not work. Josh Howard(notes) might not show up. The team just might not have it.

Or, everything could go perfectly, led by Carlisle. I guess I'm pretty smitten with the upside of this team, and I think you should be, too. No, I didn't bump their win projection into the high 50s, but I wouldn't be surprised if everything went perfectly. Wouldn't be surprised if everything fell apart, either, but I'm leaning closer to the one where the Mavs do exceedingly well in spite of advancing age.

Let's start at the end of the bench. Depth won't be as big a concern as it was last season, when the Mavs essentially went six deep. Even though the Mavericks lost Brandon Bass, won't see any of their draft picks contributing much and watched as Orlando matched their offer to sign Marcin Gortat(notes) (retaining the athletic pivotman), Dallas now boasts a cadre of sound contributors that can fill in various spots in a pinch.

Signing Quinton Ross, Ross' former teammate, James Singleton(notes), and (former teammates to half the NBA) Tim Thomas and Drew Gooden will help. Acquiring Marion and Kris Humphries will help as well. Only Ross can play shooting guard, still Dallas' biggest hole, but that's a position the Mavs were planning on filling by committee (with Howard, or with Kidd guarding off guards in a small lineup with Terry or Jose Barea).

Marion might not be much toward the end of his deal, and he's coming off the worst season of his career, but he's in a warm-and-fuzzy situation right now with a team that isn't dangling him and with a pass-first point looking to find him at any one of the three positions he can play.

Kidd? You'd have to consider his 40.6 percent mark from long range last year a fluke, but he can still get the job done effectively at point, even if his presence leaves Dallas' defense (just below average last year) in a bit of a pinch. Barea and Terry won't be much help here.

The solution? Listen to Carlisle, who is a fantastic coach, try to get the rotations right, hope Nowitzki (who wasn't as strong and potent as ever in 2008-09, but damn close) sustains his significant levels of production.

And keep on the lookout for teams that can't draw five figures worth of fans. Why?

Dallas has a massive trading chip in the (essentially) expiring contract of Erick Dampier. Damp makes a little over $12 million this year, but his $13 million contract for 2010-11 isn't guaranteed. So from now until draft day, essentially, the Mavs could ship Dampier for a high-stakes player or players from a team either looking to cut costs or clear cap room in anticipation for the free-agent class of 2010. Either way, the phones will be ringing, and the Mavericks cannot screw this up.

With all these players in their 30s and the Lakers showing no signs of falling back to earth, the Dampier trade just might be their best chance to give Nowitzki, Kidd and Marion the elusive championship they've been looking for.

Prediction: 52-30

Kelly Dwyer

Can the Mavericks return to the level of legitimate contenders in the Western Conference with Erick Dampier at center?

Even though Jason Kidd is 36 years old heading into the season, the Mavericks still want to push the pace and get as many points as they can in transition. The problem is that in a would-be high-octane offense, Dampier might as well be a pair of training wheels on one of those Tour de France racing bicycles. He doesn't rebound enough to trigger the break and doesn't run the floor enough to be a finisher. What's more, despite his size, Dampier is not a shut-the-door defender in the paint. If there's a weakness in the Mavs' plan for a return to prominence in the west, this is it.

— Fran Blinebury, Yahoo! Sports 2009-10 NBA Preview magazine

The Two Man Game: "The Mavs are blessed with all kinds of options. Against bigger teams with more traditional post threats, the Mavs can use a big lineup of Kidd-Howard-Marion-Dirk-Damp. When in need of more offense, they can sub out Damp for Gooden, or play Terry at the 2 and shift Dirk to the 5. If they're looking for all-out defense, Carlisle could theoretically trot out Kidd-Ross-Howard-Marion-Damp. And all of those lineups don't even mention point guards J.J. Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois, big man Kris Humphries, or resident gunner/headcase Tim Thomas. Most of the Mavericks can swing multiple positions, and that gives Rick Carlisle nothing but options." [more]

Mavs Moneyball: "This team, while being more athletic, still has their issues; first and foremost defensive rebounding is a big area of concern. If the Mavericks cannot get better at keeping their opponent to one shot, this could singlehandedly crush their hopes of making a deep playoff push. [The] other glaring weakness is their perimeter defense. They must get better defensive guard play from Jason Kidd and Jason Terry [...] Both of these guys do great things for this team on the offensive end, but they need to step up to the challenge on the defensive end." [more]

NBAMate: "I saw enough glimpses of [the Mavericks] last year to make me believe they can go deep in the playoffs, but let's not forget how bumpy the road was before they got there. The Mavs were brilliant over the final 10% of the season, but pretty woeful over the first 90%. Put some of that down to adjusting to Jason Kidd if you want, and there's no doubt a new point guard requires the longest period of adjustment of all positions. But now we're seeing even more shuffling of the lineup, and I expect this team to take a little while before we see their best. Of course, if things don't go according to plan, the Mavs might have a mid-season trade up their sleeves to catapult them amongst the title favorites. Nothing about this team smells of 'building for the future' or 'developing youth.' It's about getting a championship, now, before this Kidd-Dirk window closes." [more]

TrilliTrill, "Jason Terry"

There really couldn't be an easier choice for a team song than "Jason Terry" by TrilliTrill. Not only is he a player for the Mavericks, but the song isn't quite as good as its creator thinks it is. Sorry, Mark Cuban. Anyways, we eagerly await TrilliTrill's follow-up, "Walk Like a Nowitzki."

— Trey Kerby, The Blowtorch

The Mavericks have as impressive a collection of fantasy talent as any other team in the league. Nowitzki has been delivering top-10 fantasy seasons for almost a decade and is showing no signs of slowing down. He's as safe and reliable as you can get at seventh overall in standard leagues. Kidd is aging like fine wine, and his surplus counting stats make him the most valuable player that also happens to score less than 10 points per game. His 291 threes-plus-steals were the second-most in the league in 2008-09. Terry's ridiculous efficiency makes him a roto powerhouse that can often be had at a heavy discount. His current average draft position places him in the seventh round (80.6) despite a season rank of 20 last season.

Shawn Marion's impressive run as the No.1 player in fantasy ended as soon as he left the Phoenix system, but he's still "very good" and Dallas is an excellent spot for him. He'll run the break with Kidd and play off Dirk's perimeter game — don't be shy if he's there for you at the Round 3-4 turn. Josh Howard spent roughly five years as an "upside" pick, but much of the shine is off thanks to consistent injury concerns and the fact that he's actually 29 years old at this point. He's still recovering from off-season ankle and wrist surgeries and it's a guess as to if/when he'll be 100 percent. Drew Gooden will likely be productive enough to warrant a roster spot at various points of the season, but consistency figures to be elusive.

— Matt Buser, Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball / BuserSports.com

Sign up now for Fantasy Basketball '09.

JREwing: Lots of men have tried to run roughshod over the Mavericks. Wade, 'Melo ... you can visit them in the cemetery. #OppositeDay #NBA


More BDL Previews: Celtics | Nets | Knicks | 76ers | Raptors

digg delicious
more

81 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. arcee
    1. Posted by arcee Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:24 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    just hope they wont face LAL in the first round... :)
  2. David
    2. Posted by David Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:27 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    "They could just tune out Carlisle?" What kind of research have you done to indicate that that is even a remote possibility? That's just poor journalism.
  3. Chide
    3. Posted by Chide Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:28 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Mavs suck, 52/30 prediction, that might not be good enough to make the playoffs in the west...lol mavs really suck...
  4. Nash
    4. Posted by Nash Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:28 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    If the mavs would have gotten Gortat from the Magic, they'd be a legit threat to go 7 games with the Lakers in the western conference finals. You guys may hate on Cuban, but he's willing to take risks to win games and give the fans a competitive team every year. I see the Mavs unloading Damp for a key free agent something like a Gasol or Billups trade that can spark the team mid-season. Marion will take so much pressure off of Dirk defensively and he can return to his MVP type offensive numbers. Watch out for the Mavs.
  5. Nash
    5. Posted by Nash Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:41 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    The Mavs started slow last year because they were adjusting to Carlisle's style and coaching. I think they will start this year strong playing how they played entering the playoffs last year. Avery Johnson wasn't that great of a coach and was handed a championship caliber team. Carlisle is such a better coach and you tell by the way he lets his players play to their strength. Why do you think Devin Harris had a break out year? because Avery was calling all the plays and not letting Harris do his own thing. Whenever the Mavs traded for Kidd, he was trying to tell Kidd how to run the offense and im pretty sure the most complete PG of the last decade (assists, rebounding, defense) can run the offense by himself. Im biased because I am a Mavs fan but I see them only behind the lakers because portland is still too raw and young, houston has no yao, new orleans has a cheap owner, utah is just utah, and denver plays no defense(even less than the Mavs). The mavs will surprise some people, I see them going 57-25.
  6. FlipBaller21
    6. Posted by FlipBaller21 Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:47 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    MAVS = First round loss to anyone
  7. mg1
    7. Posted by mg1 Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:02 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    the roster is filled with old players,,most of them are seasoned vets that can be very crafty,,i would be willing to bet a 55-27 season,,,and second round loss to LA
  8. JPorter
    8. Posted by JPorter Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Disclaimer: Not much of a Mavericks fan, but you have to admit a starting line-up of: J-Kidd, J-Ho (if healthy), Marion (who's finally back in a Phoenix type situation with a pass-first point guard), Diggler (with his sick Flo) and Drew Gooden is about as good a starting line-up as you can find this year in the west regardless of their older vintage. That's right, comparable to the Lakers, Spurs and a very dangerous underated Nuggets team (watch Melo go to work this year). Barrea is not a legimate backup point guard for a serous contender (Sorry bud, not trying to hate), and in order for them to seriously compete with the Champs, Cuban needs to get off his a*s (not be concerned about the SEC's appeal over his insider trading dismissal) and trade Dampier for a more servicable backcourt to keep Kidd and the Jet fresh for the Playoffs.
  9. Travasher
    9. Posted by Travasher Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:18 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Like always they'll have a great regular season and fail miserably in the post season, they missed their chance. I like the Spurs and their championship pedigree and older team over this Mav's team come the post season, still no denying the Laker's domination in the West though if they stay healthy.
  10. C
    10. Posted by C Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:19 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    no playoffs
  11. Nash
    11. Posted by Nash Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:41 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Potential Trades
    3 team deal where Mavs send Damp to losing team looking to create cap space, losing team sends players to Jazz that fit their system, Jazz send Boozer to Mavs because they want to give Millsap more playing time.
    A deal where Mavs send Damp to Bobcats who want to go after a free agent in the 09 summer class for Tyson Chandler
    I could see 76ers giving up on Brand and trading him for Damp because they want to get outta a long term deal
    I could see the Bulls shopping Hinrich, giving the Mavs a decent back up PG for kidd, also could play off ball guard, let Kidd run the offense but let Kirk D up on CP3, Tony Parker, and other quick gaurds Kidd can't keep up with defensively
    Boozer, Chandler, Brand, Hinrich would all be possiblities. Everyone is gearing up to clear cap space for the big free agent class, while Cuban is gearing up for a run at the title and taking advantage of the other teams' pursuits for free agents.
  12. LUVSTER
    12. Posted by LUVSTER Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:58 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Too bad they did get not Bass back, would be a better team from the bench
    cause I think Gortat would have been another Dampier type of player.
    Lost him anyway and Bass which kind of sucks..
    Like what I see in new players Marion, Gooden, Humphries and even have not seen Tim Thomas yet.
    Hope Jho does not ruin the chemistry or might be traded with Dampier.
  13. Laszlo H
    13. Posted by Laszlo H Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:20 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    with what they did last year with howard in and out and with a limited rotation they should be in competition with the spurs for the division. the matrix is looking like he did back in phoenix proving the last 2 years he wasn't into it because they were bad teams. and with shawn and quinton ross we don't have to put kidd on the best 2 guard, a lot to ask from him anymore. gooden is immediate help offensively, humphries was strong in the preseason, he could be decent. one more thing is dampier's huge contract as trade bait. top 4 in the west
  14. linda
    14. Posted by linda Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Yes Dallas has an older team, but you can't substitute for experience. However, they have always been lacking a productive center. Don't get me wrong, I like Dampier, but he is not very productive as far as scoring, and not a real scoring threat, causing teams to focus on the real scoring threats and double and triple teaming Dirk. I have been a hugh Maverick fan since the beginning. Unfortunately , I have been staying in The Houston area due to necessity, and will probably be here all of the season, and they don't show the Maverick's games here, don't know how I will manage. So glad they kept JET, as when he is hot , he's hot!
  15. flashlomography@...
    15. Posted by flashlomography@... Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Until another team has a 7 footer that can (and will) pull up for the trey on a fast break, Dallas will continue to be the only team that truly excites me to watch.... whether they're up by 20 or down by 20, anything is still possible
  16. flashlomography@...
    16. Posted by flashlomography@... Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:30 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    also, cuban is a nut and i love it.... he's like what a lot of guys would be if they suddenly had a ton of money and decided to buy a sports team...
  17. Chris
    17. Posted by Chris Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:40 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Comment 1 said "just hope they wont face LAL in the first round... :) "
    Why do people always bring up the Lakers in every freaking Blog on here . . . . It seems like when people speak out of place they can't control themselves, and maybe 'wagon jumpers'.
    By the way, every one knows the Lakers are the team to beat, I mean people don;t get on the golfing blog and challenge others by saying "tiger will beat everyone" I mean we know that give it a break.
    Good article though, the Mavs should be better this year, and Marion is a good addition if he gets even near his old form, he's a good player just doesn't have the leadership qualities. But with Kidd and Dirk her doesn't need them . .
  18. Andrew K
    18. Posted by Andrew K Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:54 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    The Mavs won't be that great, but the decline of the Rockets and Hornets should give them a higher seed in the playoffs. Another first or second round exit for them after that, though.
  19. Carlo
    19. Posted by Carlo Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:03 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Honestly Cuban should blow up this team and start anew. They had their chance and now that the Lakers and Spurs have upgraded it's curtains for any 2nd class teams in the West.
    I'm not sure Dallas will be better than Portland.
    #17 Did you lose some money betting against the Lakers or something?
    Who are you to say that no one can speak of the champs......obviously you ain't no Laker fan.
    Mavs can't beat the Lakers, there I said it.
    Screw you.
  20. Big B
    20. Posted by Big B Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:09 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Chris- in order for a blog to get some hits, you need to mention the Lakers. They are such a polarizing team. Why? Because everyone either loves or hates a winner. No in between.
    Back on topic: I'd like to see Dallas in the mix this year. It will make for a fun race. Teams like Dallas, San Antonio, Denver and Portland can beat each other up over that #2 spot in the West. In the end, though, LA is just head and shoulders above the rest of the West. See how I did that? The Head and Shoulders comment? You get it, right? lol
  21. available request
    21. Posted by available request Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:14 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    trade damp for demarcus ware.
  22. siggity.0013
    22. Posted by siggity.0013 Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:38 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    #2 No worries, blogging isn't journalism.
  23. John
    23. Posted by John Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    trade jason kidd for steve nash

Ball Don't Lie

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

J.E. Skeets

Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Teams

Customize to follow news and rumors on your favorite teams. [ Sign in ]

Related Photo Gallery

Featured NBA Video

Y! Sports Blogs

Ball Don't Lie Recent Readers