Abortion ban returns to SC Senate for debate. Here are 5 things that could happen next

Republicans’ work to further restrict abortion is again underway in South Carolina, but passage is not necessarily a foregone conclusion.

The Republican-led South Carolina Senate is set to debate a six-week abortion ban, S. 474, Tuesday, part of an effort to put the measure before the state Supreme Court, which previously ruled a similar ban unconstitutional. The House passed the bill last week, mostly along party lines, after 24 hours of debate over two days.

Abortion is currently banned after 20 weeks in the state. Six weeks is generally before most women know they are pregnant.

The House vote was the latest effort by Republicans to add abortion restrictions in the state after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. But while Republicans control the state Legislature, the bill’s passage is not immediately guaranteed.

Here are five things that could happen in regards to the latest abortion bill.

Republican opposition to abortion bill

Three female Republican senators are poised to oppose modifications the House made to the bill. Three male Republican senators could join them.

Such opposition could mean another round of negotiations with the House.

State Sen. Sandy Senn, R-Charleston, recently told CNN it was less certain that the three male Republican senators — Tom Davis, of Beaufort, and Horry County’s Greg Hembree and Luke Rankin — will also oppose the bill like they did in April, when the Senate rejected a near-total abortion ban.

“My position has been if (the House) essentially, in effect, passed the equivalent of what the Senate passed, I would support it,” Davis previously told The State. “But if they deviated from it, or if they materially changed it, then I would not support it.”

The Senate had already passed a six-week ban bill earlier this year, but the House added modifications to it last week, such as requiring child support to start at conception and letting a judge decide if a minor can have an abortion should a parent or guardian be unavailable.

Abortion bill modification rejection

If the Senate rejects the House modifications, debate would return to a conference committee between House and Senate negotiators. Such a committee can meet at any time. If that committee reaches some sort of agreement, the Legislature could then be called back any time to vote.

Abortion bill fails

This one is pretty straight forward. If the Senate rejects the House modifications and the conference committee can’t reach an agreement, the bill could die for the year, and Republicans can try again during the next legislative session, which starts in January.

SC abortion bill could pass

Republicans in the Senate could simply find the votes necessary to pass the bill as written. If that happens, the bill would be sent to Gov. Henry McMaster to sign. The governor has indicated he would do so. Republicans have said the new bill responds to the state Supreme Court’s earlier decision.

If passed, SC bill will be challenged

If approved though, the bill will be challenged and would eventually make its way before the state Supreme Court. But while similar legislation was ruled unconstitutional, the court is now composed of all men after Justice Kaye Hearn, the only woman on the high court, retired and was replaced by now-Justice Gary Hill.