Fourth-Place Medal

Last August, we handicapped the odds of which city would get awarded the 2016 Olympics. With each of the four bidding cities making presentations to the IOC today, we've updated those odds. Four months from now, before the IOC makes its final vote, we'll make our final predictions:

Chicago: 3-2 (Last time: Even) -- Though Chicago is still the favorite to land the '16 Games, its lead seems to have narrowed in recent months.

No U.S. Olympic bid has ever received an underwriting guarantee from the federal government, so it's no surprise that Chicago's bid won't receive one either. In today's financial climate though, that might be a bigger deal than it was when Atlanta received the 1996 Olympics. (This despite the fact that Jacques Rogge says finances shouldn't be a consideration in determining a host city, which is sort of like saying that Freddie Mac shouldn't take into consideration a person's finances before handing out mortgage loans. Hmmm ... Perhaps that's not the best example.)

Barack Obama's symbolic creation of a White House office of Olympic, Paralympic and Youth Sport yesterday only further highlights the lack of government financial support.

Madrid: 20-1 (Last time: 20-1) -- We said it in August and we'll say it again today. It's hard to imagine the IOC going back to Europe for back-to-back Olympiads. It's only 1,000 miles from London to Madrid. The last time two consecutive Olympics were held so close together was in 1948 and 1952 when the sites went from London to Helsinki.

Rio de Janiero: 2-1 (Last time: 3-2) -- Rogge's statement about legacy being more important than finances could also be read as, "we're going to South America, money concerns be damned." The best thing Rio's bid has going for it is the fact that the Olympics have never been held in South America. The chance to open up that continent to the Games could be a huge selling point with the IOC.

Tokyo: 5-2 (Last time: 5-1) -- For all the talk about how money isn't important, it is. It always is. And Tokyo has the most of it. The Japanese bid has secured $4 billion in financing for the Games, something that could make IOC members forget that they just left an Asian host city one year ago.

On Monday, seven sports will bid for inclusion on the 2016 Olympic program. Later on this summer, the IOC will select two of those sports to present at the organization's October meeting in Switzerland. The IOC will then vote on whether to include both, one or neither of the sports on the program for the '16 Games.

The IOC is notoriously difficult to read when it comes to votes (just ask Parisians), so it's no surprise that there is little general consensus as to which sports have the best chance to advance to the final round of bidding. We'll take our shot though.

Below are the seven sports that will be making their bids tomorrow, ranked in order of most to least likely to be added to the 26-sport Olympic program. Let it be said that the difference between first and last is razor-thin.

1) Golf -- The IOC loves its stars and Tiger Woods is one of the biggest in the world. Seeing as how golf has already been an Olympic sport (last competed in 1904) and adding it wouldn't require much new infrastructure (golf's bid says that exisiting courses in each bid city can be used), it's a good bet that we could see a medal stand on the 18th green at Medinah (or its Brazilian equivalent) in seven years.

2) Rugby Sevens -- There are three team sports bidding tomorrow and only one of those wasn't dropped from the Olympic program four years ago. That fact, plus the Euro-centric tilt of the IOC (in 2005, 53 of 117 voting members were from European countries) provides a huge boon to the bid of seven-on-seven rugby.

3) Roller Sports -- Call it a hunch, but roller sports (basically, inline skating races) seems to have the makings of an IOC-friendly sport. It will attract younger viewers (at least, that's the thinking), it's cheap (the bid calls for road races) and it's competed over a short time period (three days). The pedigree of rollerblade racing can't touch any of the other six bidding sports, but that didn't stop BMX and trampoline from getting the nod to join the cycling and gymnastics programs, respectively, earlier this decade.  

4) Squash -- A member of squash's bid team is Prince Tunku Imran of Malaysia. He also happens to be an IOC member. (So much for putting a stop to conflicts of interest.) 

5) Karate -- Q: What's the difference between judo, taekwondo and karate? A: Both you and I don't know, and I doubt IOC members will either. 

6) Softball -- The fact that the American women lost this competition in Beijing for the first time in Olympics history can only help the sport's bid. I don't think it will help enough. 

7) Baseball -- Unless Major League Baseball can promise that its players will compete in 2016 (a huge stretch), it's difficult to imagine that the IOC will want to reverse its 2005 decision to kick baseball (and softball) off the Olympic program.

It was hardly a slump, but facts are facts: Michael Phelps was on a three-event losing streak. After his first two races at the final USA Swimming Grand Prix meet of the season, Phelps is back on top of the medal stand, as usual.

In the start to his final tune-up before the ConocoPhillips National Championships next month (a meet which will also serve as the U.S. trials for August's World Championships), Michael Phelps earned a dominant five-second victory in his signature event, the 200m fly. Tonight, he won a race that is usually reserved for distance freestylists. And, most importantly, he accomplished all of those things while sporting a mustache that would make Tom Selleck proud. 

It was the first time Phelps swam the 200m butterfly in competition since winning that event in Beijing 10 months ago. The stakes were a little lower this time around at a meet called the Santa Clara Invitational, the final stop of USA Swimming's Grand Prix Series. For earning the meet record in the fly, Phelps won $100, which is four zeroes less than the check he got from Speedo after breaking Spitz's gold-medal mark at last year's Olympics.

The 400 free was a race Phelps hadn't won in years. After cruising to an early lead, he held off challengers in the final 50 meters before touching in a decent time.

As for the mustache, it's not the first time Phelps has rocked the Joe Namath-look. When he arrived in Beijing, Phelps had a true horseshoe, as opposed to the half-'stache he's got now. (It's very My Name Is Earl.) He has vowed not to shave it until the U.S. nationals begin in July. If it grows bushy enough, the 'stache might automatically qualify Phelps to be part of the Virginia State Troopers Association. All he'll need is the aviators. 

The mustache could be the start of a new endeavor for Phelps. After London 2012, he'll need something to fill his days. Perhaps he could focus his efforts and training on earning a spot on this medal stand. 

The death of legendary swim coach Richard Quick won't make headlines or garner too much attention on SportsCenter. Even with Michael Phelps bringing swimming unparalleled coverage in recent months, it will always be just a niche sport. This doesn't make Quick's career any less impressive, though.

The 66-year-old, who died Wednesday of brain cancer, was a three-time head coach of the U.S. Olympic team (1988, 1996 and 2000) and led his teams to 13 NCAA titles. Mike Krzyzewski's basketball coaching resume is as impressive as it gets, but he'd almost have to triple his output to match what Quick accomplished during coaching stints at Auburn, Texas and Stanford. Just two months ago, Quick led the Auburn men's team to a national title and was named NCAA coach of the year as a result.

While serving as the Olympic head coach, Quick worked with some of swimming's all-time greats: Janet Evans, Mary T. Meagher, Summer Sanders and Jenny Thompson. He also served as an assistant in three other Olympiads, giving him a 20-year stretch from 1984 through 2004 in which he was on the deck in the Summer Games.

Back in March, Quick spoke with FSN South about his condition:

The sporting world has lost a coaching legend, even if most of us won't even realize it.

He may look surprised in the picture, but Michael Phelps almost certainly knew he wasn't going to beat Fred Bousquet in the 100 freestyle last night at the Charlotte UltraSwim. And while Phelps probably would have loved to have gone five-for-five in his return to the pool, the fact that he went two-for-five means virtually nothing. The two losses are about as important as the Steelers losing to the Bills last year in the preseason or Barack Obama dropping the South Dakota primary to Hillary Clinton.

Of course, much was made of those two losses (and one scratch) that Phelps suffered this weekend in Charlotte. By the way the headlines were written, it was almost as if some in the media were suggesting that Phelps' inability to sweep the Charlotte UltraSwim was some sort of failure. The underlying subtext seemed to be "uh-oh, maybe the Phelps invincibility is gone." Maybe the layoff, the photo, the suspension and the boycotts have all caught up to him. They haven't.

Phelps is still shaking off the rust of his long layoff from the pool and has been tinkering with his strokes. Most importantly, he dropped some of his signature, lengthy events (200 fly, 400 IM) in favor of specialized sprints (50 free, 100 back). They are vastly different events to train for and to race. The mere fact that Phelps was so close to the greatest backstroker ever (Aaron Piersol) and to a sprint specialist (Bousquet) is impressive in its own right.

But the main thing is that to elite swimmers like Phelps, the Charlotte UltraSwim wasn't a big deal. Training for those types of swimmers are planned around only the biggest meets, like July's World Championships. In the weeks before that meet and the U.S. Nationals, swimmers will increase their pool and dryland training. At some point (usually two to three weeks prior) they'll start their taper, which is designed to keep the swimmer in peak shape while maximizing recovery and rest.

This weekend wasn't a taper or shave meet, as you can tell by that goatee on Phelps' face. It was a tune-up for the two international summer meets. If Phelps gets the same amount of silvers as golds in that meet, then there might be some discussion as to whether he's on a downslide. Until that happens (and I don't think it will), the status quo remains: Phelps is still the greatest swimmer out there.

After Michael Phelps won eight gold medals in Beijing, the biggest question was whether he would be able to keep the spotlight on swimming between then and the start of the London Games in 2012. Judging by the assembled media at a cramped rec center today in Charlotte, NC for a routine USA Swimming Grand Prix meet, it's safe to say that Phelps has succeeded ... for now.

Granted, a lot of that spotlight is trained on Phelps' return to the pool for reasons nobody expected back in August, but any publicity for swimming is good publicity. It really doesn't matter why ESPN sent a reporter to Charlotte to cover the meet, just that they did.

But those expecting to see Phelps dominate the Charlotte Ultra Swim like he did the Water Cube may be surprised when they see the results on the bottom of the SportsCenter crawl this weekend. It wouldn't be at all unexpected for him to lose multiple races in Charlotte. Nor would it be concerning. For Phelps, this meet is the equivalent of a shortstop playing in a split-squad spring training game or a quarterback taking ten snaps in the preseason. The result doesn't matter nearly as much as the reacquiatance with competition.

Of the five events Phelps will swim, he'll be the prohibitive favorite in just two (today's 200 free and 100 fly). Not surprisingly, Phelps won both events in Beijing. In this morning's 200 free prelims, Phelps qualified third for the finals, but his goal for that race was simply to post a time that advanced him to the evening session. Expect a victory tonight over the top two qualifiers.

The other three events (Saturday's 50 free and 100 back and Sunday's 100 free) are part of Phelps new repertoire, so some growing pains might be evident. Phelps has changed his freestyle for the sprints, a measure that is designed to pay long-term dividends, not immediate ones. (Like when Tiger Woods fixes his swing.)

As a result, he'll likely be off the top step of the podium for the 50 free (a specialist's race if there ever was one) and 100 back (that race has belonged to Aaron Piersol). The 100 free is considered up for grabs, but with Phelps tinkering with his new stroke, even he might not be expecting a win. After all, the goal is to be peaking at the World Championships in July, not at a Grand Prix meet in May.

The return of Michael Phelps to the swimming pool got lost in the shuffle of a busy sports week that was dominated by other superstars like Brett Favre, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez. For as much attention as the Olympic star's controversial suspension received in February, it ended with a whimper.

Media outlets covered the story, but since there was little news involved (everyone knew the suspension would end on May 6) it didn't receive much national play. However, buried in those articles was the biggest news of all: Phelps has committed to swim in the 2012 London Olympics.

That wasn't as much of a foregone conclusion as it might seem. Right around the time that the nation was overreacting to those infamous bong photos, some began to speculate that Phelps might throw in the towel on his swimming career. The theory was that since U.S.A. Swimming had alienated the 14-time gold medalist, he wouldn't feel the need to train maniacally for 40 more months in order to compete in London.

But that missed the point. Phelps doesn't swim to please (or spite) the U.S. national team. He swims for the same reason Tiger Woods still plays golf, even though he's earned hundreds of millions of dollars. It's what they do. To ever think that Phelps would pass up on the chance to become the greatest Olympian of all-time never made any sense. That's what he's trained his whole life for. Of course he's going to swim in London. He has to swim in London.

Ever since athlete salaries have skyrocketed, some have made the assumption that players would retire early because they financially didn't need to play. But that hasn't happened. By and large, multi-millionaire athletes still hang on too long (see: Favre, Brett), not because they want the money, but because they crave the action, don't want to admit the game has passed them by and, most importantly, don't really have anything else to do.

Phelps said as much to The Washington Post's Amy Shipley in a Friday story:

"I was actually being a kid for the first time in my life. I was just having a good time. It was needed after 12 years of never really having more than a week off. [But] after a while, I was saying, 'Clearly I didn't miss much during all those years I was training.' ... I had nothing to do. I would get up at 12 or 1 o'clock and after that I was like, 'Well, what am I going to do today?' Sit and watch TV? Go and play video games? What am I going to do?' "

I'm sure there was a time in the aftermath of the suspension when Phelps doubted whether he was up to the grind of training for the next four years. But my guess is that his confusion was no different than normal people waking up in the morning and questioning their career choice. It's natural to have some doubts every now and then.

For Michael Phelps it would seem any doubts are in the past alongside that silly suspension. His comeback begins next week in Charlotte and will culminate this season with the World Championships in Rome this summer, all on the path to July 27, 2012, the opening night of the event that will likely be the crowning moment in the career of the greatest swimmer of all time.

The great ones always evolve. Michael Jordan added a fallaway jumper to his arsenal late in his career after his explosiveness to the basket diminished. In the 1960s Muhammad Ali was a dancer who deftly avoided an opponent's best shots. In the 1970s he willingly took punches in pursuit of victory. Tiger Woods has gone through massive swing changes twice in his career, the second of which came after Woods won four straight majors. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Michael Phelps, the greatest swimmer who ever lived, is undergoing an overhaul of his freestyle stroke.

When Phelps returns to the pool in May at the Charlotte UltraSwim, he says he plans to debut a new freestyle technique, despite the fact that his old method helped him win five gold medals in freestyle events at the Beijing Olympics.

At a ribbon-cutting ceremony in Manhattan on Wednesday, Phelps was coy about his plans for the change:

"I'm not saying anything until we unveil it. It's a significant change. You'll be able to tell exactly what I did as soon as I take my first stroke.

I'm going to try it this year. If it works, it works. If it doesn't, I'll go back to the old stroke."

Our guess is that we'll see shorter, more steady strokes from Phelps. His freestyle has a slow, uneven turnover, with his two strokes coming quickly after one another, followed by massive underwater pulls. Obviously, it has worked for Phelps. But if he wants to become the best freestyle sprinter in the world, he may need to increase his turnover (stroke rate) and develop a more rhythmic pace.

Phelps isn't keeping his changes to the pool either. Reports say he has split from his cocktail waitress girlfriend Caz Pal and is now seeing Miss California Carrie Prejean. You may have heard of her.

For the past 25 years Nike has been putting out some of the most memorable commercials on television. Those ads have run the gamut from understated to visually spectacular; A-list to no-list; deceptively simple to controversial. Now, Nike is stripping it all down to nothing. Literally.

The company's newest digital short features naked runners attending a fictional nudist running camp called Bear Butte. The runners all wear the Nike Free 5.0 running shoe and nothing else, the idea being that running with the Free 5.0's is like running barefoot (and bare other things too).

Here's the exclusive first-look at the ad. We must warn you that when we mean naked, we mean naked. There's a lot of front pixelation, but the backsides' of the runners are shown au naturel.

Assuming that, unlike me, you were looking at the runner's faces, you may recognize U.S. Olympians Nick Symmonds and Kara Goucher, both of whom appear in the ad. 

In an email, Symmonds said that he didn't feel shy while shooting the commercial despite the whole being-naked thing. That's probably only because it wasn't cold outside.

The Nike Free 5.0's will be released worldwide in May. That commercial goes live today, which means that in a few hours at least one guy will be contacting Nike to ask how he can register to train with the naked ladies at Bear Butte.