Big League Stew - MLB

Using the best technology available to us, SlumpBot .200 identifies a few players who are currently having a bit of trouble and then offers solutions for performance recovery. Today's edition focuses on players who had some unfortunate troubles throughout the first half. 

Scott Kazmir(notes), Tampa Bay Rays

Data: 4-5, 7.11 ERA, 1.790 WHIP

Malfunction: Kazmir is making Francisco Liriano(notes) look competent. The "ace" of the AL Champs' staff has barely looked like a major leaguer. His walks and homers are up, and strikeouts and fastball velocity are way down. As Dave Cameron writes, "those missing MPH are having a pretty big impact."

Diagnosis: Kazmir is a power pitcher who has lost velocity. He never had brilliant control — he walked quite a few people in the best of times — but he made up for it by striking out a ton. As the strikeouts have decreased — helped by a collapse in his swinging strike rate, from a career rate of 19 percent to 13 this year — his numbers have up and died. A monthlong DL stint didn't fix things. After two short but promising starts, he gave up 7 runs in 6 1/3 on July 8. His fastball was slightly faster than earlier in the season, topping out at 92 and sitting around 90, but still not what it was in previous years.

Reboot Directions: "It seems like I haven't gotten one break the whole year," he told the Associated Press. "I'm due." After riding his radar gun roller coaster for much of the year, the Rays may have slightly less confidence in just how "due" he is. If he isn't still injured, then he doesn't have much of an excuse for his poor command and velocity. And it's not like the Rays have any lack of pitching. He may be running out of chances in the starting rotation.

Who else needs SlumpBot's help after a poor first half?

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Jimmy Rollins(notes), Philadelphia Phillies

Data: .229/.286/.353, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 16 SB

Malfunction: M-V-Pee-yew. There aren't too many guys having a worse year than Jimmy Rollins, but Charlie Manuel (of  the All-Star IBB) keeps him in the leadoff spot like it's in his contract. Of course, with the Braves and Mets playing as they are, the Phillies don't have much reason to do anything different — but it's hard to see how the Phillies can keep it up all year if Rollins keeps shaking hands with Mr. Mendoza.

Diagnosis: Is he getting unlucky? Okay, yeah, he's getting unlucky. His Batting Average on Balls in Play is .239, 56 points below his career average. His line drive rate is 18 percent, which is pretty good but still 4 percent below his career average. His homer rate is way below what it was during his 2007 MVP campaign but the same as last year. His strikeouts are up and walks are down from last year, but they're not significantly off from career levels. He's hitting into a ton of pop-ups, though. If there were a significant mechanical problem, you'd expect a lot fewer line drives and a lot more strikeouts. But it's clear that there's plenty going wrong.

Reboot Directions: Rollins thinks that he may be onto something. "I'm getting the right stroke down, which is good. I've been doing very well," he told the Delaware County Daily Times. "It's like, 'There it is, you dodo brain ... it took you so long to remember that?'" He seems to have remembered something, all right: he's got a 1.015 OPS in 13 games in July. In baseball, what goes around comes around. The Phillies will be a lot harder to catch in the NL East if this guy comes around.

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Brian Giles(notes), San Diego Padres

Data: .191/.277/.271

Malfunction: Good lord, everything. I don't usually write up people who are currently on the DL, but he's already collected over 250 PA, so I'm making an exception. Before he went on the DL, he was pretty clearly the worst everyday player in the major leagues. If he could come back and get back into the lineup, he can start posting some historic numbers. No one's finished a full season with a batting average under .200 since the legendary Rob Deer in 1991, but Giles has a chance.

Diagnosis: Brian Giles hasn't hit 20 homers since 2004 or slugged .500 since 2003. Since then, his SLG has dropped rather precipitously until completely falling off the map this year. He remained a useful player because he still walked a ton, but this old man's clearly gotten longer in the tooth. He has more strikeouts than walks for the first time since 1998 — back when he was a Cleveland Indian — and he hasn't had a batting average this low since a brief AAA assignment that same year.

Reboot Directions: The Padres would like to trade him, but they don't really want to give him the playing time he'd need to get anyone interested; the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks "the Padres will eat the remainder of his $9 million contract." As Gaslamp Ball points out, perhaps they should have decided to keep Trevor Hoffman instead. The only value that Giles can still provide is comedy value for the rest of us, so that's probably the right baseball move. So, Brian Giles, LVP of the first half: Have fun laughing your way to the bank.

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A few more who have fallen and can't get up ...

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: He started off the year atrociously, with an ERA over 6 through his first 12 starts. His last few haven't been terrific, exactly, but he's limited the damage slightly and has brought down his ERA more than half a run. He's still working on being crafty rather than overpowering, but the first step to pitching effectively is not getting blown out consistently.

Josh Hamilton(notes), Texas Rangers: Baseball's erstwhile cover boy is having a bumpy road this year. He's hit a few homers and was voted by the fans into the All-Star Game, but not a whole lot else. He has been getting slightly unlucky on BABIP, but more importantly, he's walking a lot less and striking out a lot more. We know how he's dealt with adversity off the field; how will he do when he's failing on the field and battling injuries?

Fausto Carmona(notes), Cleveland Indians: Despite having a stellar year in 2007, Carmona found himself all the way back in in single-A in 2008 and 2009. Both years saw him working his way through the minors, with brief stops in A and AA, and pitching poorly whenever the Indians brought him to the big club. Now he's in AAA, still working out the kinks and trying to find the strike zone. He had a good start on thurs, which must be gratifying to the last-place Indians; he still has two more years on his contract and three more club options. They'd love to see that ace return and earn the money they signed him for.

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32 Comments

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  1. KFD07
    1. Posted by KFD07 Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:14 pm EDT

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    First! He never got healthy! Paying the price now!
  2. KFD07
    2. Posted by KFD07 Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:16 pm EDT

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    As for Brian Giles.... is it really surprising that he is slowing down? The guy is way past his prime!
  3. cpass
    3. Posted by cpass Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:34 pm EDT

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    Good news for Kazmir: In his next start he faces the Royals.
    Bad news for Kazmir: Zack Greinke will be pitching also.
  4. Shed
    4. Posted by Shed Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:42 pm EDT

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    Hamilton's walks and batting average has increased since his return from the DL and his strikeouts have decreased. He's comming around and his numbers will be there by the end of the year.
  5. Matt
    5. Posted by Matt Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:10 pm EDT

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    um....Carmona was only in A and AA in 2008 cause he was on the DL in May. He was never sent to minors though. They didn't 'bring him to the big league club' that year. He was the #2 starter, then got hurt....came back and stayed the #2 starter.
    He was off to a solid start (ERA just above 3 through the beinning of May).....then he hurt his hip and has never been the same since. Walks were still an issue though even before the DL stint.
  6. Livin' the Vegas Life
    6. Posted by Livin' the Vegas Life Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:14 pm EDT

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    If Hamilton stays healthy, I would not worry about him. He will produce. His numbers since coming off the DL are improving. You need to get your timing down first, the home runs and the RBI will follow.
  7. Jason
    7. Posted by Jason Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    If I owned him in any league (which I fortunately do not) I would have tossed him to the waiver wire long ago.
  8. seth
    8. Posted by seth Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    I'm going to go ahead and Call a big game tonight for Josh. last few times a ranger name has shown up here they had a great game that night (Elvis & Cruz)
  9. John W
    9. Posted by John W Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    Kazmir has never been the ace of the Rays staff. Period. This guy is WAY OVERRATED.
  10. Seemore B
    10. Posted by Seemore B Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:36 pm EDT

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    Carmona is garbage, not a strikeout pitcher and isnt getting outs. He's not even in the majors anymore. just brutal
  11. Seemore B
    11. Posted by Seemore B Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    Carmona is such trash.
  12. V
    12. Posted by V Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:52 pm EDT

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    Carmona wasnt trash when he beat the Yankees in the Playoffs? As a Yankee Fan he was dominating we didnt have a chance, im sure alot of clubs will look at him if hes trade bait
  13. ScottC
    13. Posted by ScottC Fri Jul 17, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    not so much in the next series meltdown against the redSox and the big papi blast to crush the indians dreams.
    Yankees are garbage
  14. gninroHdivaD
    14. Posted by gninroHdivaD Fri Jul 17, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

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    The Rays need a new stadium somewhere else--maybe Coney Island. How can one of their fans proudly say Kazmir was never the ace of the staff. Until last year he was the Ray's only pitcher that was pitching good enough to play above AA ball. You can't teach advanced physicis to 5 year-olds and you can't sell baseball to Floridians. They don't understand why there's no field goal attempt after each homerum. GO BUCS,
  15. Nate M
    15. Posted by Nate M Fri Jul 17, 2009 4:53 pm EDT

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    victor martinez is in a major slump
  16. Bud Mishkin
    16. Posted by Bud Mishkin Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:07 pm EDT

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    Maybe the Mets can get Kazmir back for Eddie Kunz.
  17. strmseekr84
    17. Posted by strmseekr84 Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:18 pm EDT

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    Can't leave out Jason Giambi. Yuck.
  18. Joe
    18. Posted by Joe Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:37 pm EDT

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    I am afraid the Giles boys - Marcus and Brian - were both steroids users.
  19. j morrison
    19. Posted by j morrison Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:41 pm EDT

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    Kazmir -at 92 mph -is not able to pitch like a power pitcher he once was and Martinez is just useless -maybe being on a team as bad as Cleveland hurts him . I personally think he is over rated and out of shape-that extra 20 lbs. gets REAL heavy come August .
  20. Stan M
    20. Posted by Stan M Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:47 pm EDT

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    how can you say kazmir is overrated? up until the last two years he was the only picther who should have actually been in the majors for the rays. ya hes goin through some tough times but i still see him as a ligitimate ace when hes goin right.
  21. LOBJ
    21. Posted by LOBJ Fri Jul 17, 2009 6:58 pm EDT

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    The Kazmir/Zambrano deal's still looking good. I'm sure Kazmir will fix whatever mechanical problem he's having and get back to striking batters out. He's always been a bad 1st inning pitcher....usually give up a run or three in the 1st, then settle in and shut em' down. I think it's mental.
  22. RichardA
    22. Posted by RichardA Fri Jul 17, 2009 6:59 pm EDT

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    Kazmir has an extraordinarily high pitch count. He throws so many pitches it's like he's had several more seasons. I don't understand why they leave him in there or he throws so many pitches.
  23. Andrew P
    23. Posted by Andrew P Fri Jul 17, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    wow you guys dont know anything
    the best pitcher for the rays last year was shields
    and yeah rays pitching overall has seriously been horrendous overall compared to last years
    maybe it has to do with jackson being traded away
  24. Diamond Dave
    24. Posted by Diamond Dave Fri Jul 17, 2009 9:09 pm EDT

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    One thing Kazmir needs is to grow-up! Last spring he came into a restaurant in Tampa that my niece works. He didn't even have the guts to approach her hisself to ask her out. At first he sent his buddies up to speak for him. When she said she wasn't interested, they left and then Kazmir approached her all cocky saying, "Do you know who I am, I'm Kazmir a starting pitcher for the Rays. She laughed and said, "Well, it doesn't matter who you are. If you aren't man enough to ask me yourself, then you're not man enough to go on a date with me".
    He needs to pull his head outta his butt and put the team first. Another example of a young punk pitcher who had success early but may loose it all because he's too immature.
  25. Diz
    25. Posted by Diz Sat Jul 18, 2009 12:19 am EDT

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    Diamond Dave you are absolutely 100% retarded.

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