Eric Edholm's mock draft

He skipped the NFL scouting combine medical recheck in Indianapolis for his surgically repaired shoulder to get married. Solid excuse. It also tells us that Lawrence knows for sure he’s going first overall.

The feeling heading into Wilson’s pro day on March 26 was that Wilson was the favorite here. Nothing changed after that. It feels nearly certain now.

We’ll find out on April 29 around 8:30 p.m. ET whether Jones is the pick. Last mock we had Trey Lance in this slot, and when we sent it to a few folks around the league (with other teams) for review, two of them mentioned that their belief was that Jones, not Lance, would be picked third. We shall see if they are right, but you can blame me if they’re not.

I could see Lance landing in this spot one way or another. Either as the Falcons’ future QB after they move on from Matt Ryan (at some point) or to another team trading up into this spot. Justin Fields is the local kid and appears to be the favorite QB among the team’s fans. The Falcons could regard Lance as having a higher ceiling long term. Just a guess.

There’s some buzz around the league that the Bengals feel they’ve done enough to upgrade their offensive line to bypass that spot (and Penei Sewell) at No. 5. That’s … interesting. Pitts has the higher ceiling as a prospect. He’s an alien, basically. So Joe Burrow getting another premier weapon feels like a good thing. As long as the Bengals double back (at 38 or 69) and grab more OL beef.

Sewell might be tough to pass on here, but Chase would give Miami a highly confident playmaker who can make life easier for Tua Tagovailoa with his separation, competitive ball skills and run-after-catch ability.

Last time around, I had Penn State LB Micah Parsons here, a player they’ll have a high regard for. But with Sewell on the board, I am not sure the Lions would pass on him. Would they move Taylor Decker to right tackle? Not initially. Sewell could be the right tackle and slide over to the left side in a few years if needed.

They went with an all-defense draft in 2020, but new GM Scott Fitterer shouldn’t be too concerned with that in 2021, even though trading for QB Sam Darnold could lead to them wanting to give him some blocking help. Corner also remains a glaring need, though, and Surtain fits the mold of the long, athletic cover man defensive coordinator Phil Snow seeks and the prototype that the Seattle Seahawks prioritized when Fitterer was a key member of their scouting department. Seattle almost exclusively drafted corners with arm lengths 32 inches or longer, and Surtain crosses that bar — and he can play, too.

Don’t know if it works out exactly like this, but Fields’ arrival would be a major threat to Drew Lock’s starting status. The Broncos tried to get into the Matthew Stafford derby, and they could move up to No. 4 if they want Lance. But if Fields drops, not costing them anything additional to take him, it would be a win for new GM George Paton.

This will anger some Cowboys fans, and we get it. They need defense! We know, we know. Would they consider South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn here? Maybe — he’d fit Dan Quinn’s preference for longer corners. What about LB Micah Parsons? Another maybe, especially if they’re worried about the health of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. But Slater could be a Day 1 starting left guard who eventually moves to tackle. Dallas has done a good job of sticking to its board, especially with first-rounders, so a Slater pick here shouldn’t be stunning. Some teams believe he has a chance to be picked ahead of Sewell.