How long will Albert Pujols look lost at the plate? (USAT)

We held a mid-season draft Monday, and I ended up taking Albert Pujols with the 19th pick. Judging by Yahoo’s updated rest of season rankings, I guess this could be considered something of a reach. I’m not necessarily going to argue against that, but it’s remarkable someone who was a unanimous top-three pick last year and was generally considered a top-10 pick this year is now a borderline top-25 pick after six more weeks of disappointment. Pujols’ first 10 seasons in the league were unprecedented, and he’s still just 33 years old (assuming his listed age is correct), but with a .234/.315/.393 line over 145 at-bats, it’s easy to see why he keeps falling down fantasy draft boards (or in most cases this time of year, it’s his sinking trade value). Picking arbitrary end points is cheating, but Pujols did hit .303 with 29 homers, 87 RBI, 66 runs scored and eight steals over 396 at-bats from May-September last season, a span in which he was the sixth most valuable fantasy player. I have no clue why Pujols batted .246 with just one home run over the other two months of the season (211 at-bats), and the ice cold start and finish to the year are equally as meaningful as the hot stretch in between, but at least there’s recent evidence Pujols is still capable of being an elite hitter.

[The windows are still open! Sign-up today for Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball 2013]

Obviously, Pujols’ start to 2013 has been highly discouraging and continues a disturbing trend, as his batting average and on-base percentage have decreased in each of the past five seasons (his SLG has dropped in each of the past four, highlighted by an anemic .393 this season). It’s clear Pujols is past his prime, but just how steep will his decline be in 2013? His current 21:18 K:BB rate is hardly abhorrent, and his 18.8 LD% is right in line with his career mark of 19.0% (although it may be worth noting his 1.31 GB/FB rate is a career high). Maybe this is simply a health issue, and Pujols is playing through injuries more serious than we realize, but that doesn’t exactly answer the question of whether or not he should currently be considered a top-20 fantasy player. Since I was willing to take him 19th, I’m of the belief he’ll bounce back (his current BABIP is .236), and hitting in between Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo (I could not have been more wrong about him so far) and Josh Hamilton (assuming the current version doesn't last forever) is certainly a nice spot to be, but I’m also willing to acknowledge a return to form is no sure thing at this point. The draft was a nice exercise to see the change in values over the first six weeks of the year. Before the season, it would have been a bit unexpected to see Chris Davis go just four picks after Pujols, that’s for sure.

This first pitch is one of the worst you’ll ever see, although still not as bad as this classic one by the Cincinnati mayor.

That’s just Manny Being Manny.

Big Game James (USAT)

Leaving a home park that ranked first, second and seventh when it comes to suppressing runs scored over the past three years respectively (according to Park Factors) and a defense that has the highest UZR over that span as well, I was down on James Shields entering 2013. After all, he was just two years removed from a season in which he posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. But I’ve been dead wrong. Shields has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far in 2013, as he’s currently sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 48:12 K:BB ratio over 50.0 innings. His average fastball velocity (92.4 mph) is a career high, but it’s been the increased use of his cutter that’s led to the early season success. Shields is not only becoming a better pitcher than I gave him credit for, but his change in environments might have been overblown as well. For one, leaving the AL East for the Central was a plus, and the Royals’ defense currently leads the American League in UZR by a wide margin, and while that’s an extremely small sample when it comes to defensive numbers, it’s also worth pointing out Kauffman Stadium has a HR Park Index for LHB of 81 over the past three years, which is the eighth lowest in MLB. Shields is legit, and while those who criticized the Wil Myers trade (myself included) may very well be right in the long term, the deal certainly looks good for Kansas City right now.

Matt Cain off to a slow start (USAT)

Matt Cain entered this season having allowed 129 homers over 1,536.2 innings (0.76 HR/9). This year, he’s already served up nine home runs over 34.2 innings. Put differently, he’s allowed the same amount of long balls this month as he did all of the 2011 season, which spanned 221.2 innings. Cain has never had a season in which his HR/FB% was higher than 8.4. That number currently sits at 19.1% in 2013. While some could view this as regression hitting hard, Cain’s previous sample was too big to be written off as a fluke, and it’s worth pointing out just two of his six starts this year have come at home. Cain’s fastball velocity is down slightly in the early going (about 0.5 mph less compared to last year), and thanks to two deep playoff runs, he’s averaged 238.2 innings pitched over the past three seasons, so it’s at least possible he’s wearing down. However, with a 32:10 K:BB ratio over 34.2 innings this year, Cain could just as easily be viewed as a prime buy-low candidate. A 6.49 ERA typically isn’t accompanied by a 1.30 WHIP. I’d try to take advantage of owners fed up with an extremely unlucky stretch of home runs allowed and throw out some trade offers. From 2009-2012, Cain’s ERA (2.93) and WHIP (1.10) were both the fourth-best among all starters in baseball (accompanied by a HR/FB% of 7.0), so don’t let one month change just how consistently good Cain has been. The home park, SF’s bullpen and strong defense are all in his favor as well.

Here’s a funny clip asking people at Coachella about fake bands.

Here’s a cop yanking a suicidal man off train tracks at the last possible second.

Max Scherzer is the king of Ks (USAT)

Max Scherzer has a ridiculous 30 Ks over 19.0 innings this season, as he’s become baseball’s premier strikeout pitcher. He finished second to Justin Verlander in the category last year, recording only eight fewer strikeouts in 50.2 fewer innings thanks to a major league leading 11.08 K/9 rate. Scherzer dealt with some shoulder issues late last season, and while cleaned up, his delivery remains somewhat violent, but he sure appears healthy now. Scherzer has allowed a 20.5 LD%, but with so few groundballs (35.9 GB%), his .385 BABIP looks especially unlucky. In fact, among the 15 starters with the lowest groundball rates this season (Scherzer’s is the 11th lowest), only two others have a BABIP above .300. Moreover, Detroit actually has the seventh best UZR (4.3) in baseball, so it hasn’t been a defense issue. Of course, we are dealing with a sample of fewer than 20.0 innings, but this highlights just how dominant Scherzer has been, as it’s not easy to post a 2.84 ERA when nearly 40 percent of your balls in play fall for hits. Over his past 90.1 innings (counting the postseason), Scherzer has a 1.89 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with a 119:20 K:BB ratio. The next step is pitching deeper into games, as he’s never reached 200.0 innings in a season. Still, it’s hard to complain about anything when it comes to Scherzer, who arguably should be viewed as a borderline top-five fantasy starter right now.

Matt Harvey is the real deal (USAT)

I’m not sure what more can be said about Matt Harvey at this point, but I’ll go ahead and continue to pile on the praise. The guy has allowed six hits over 22.0 innings this season. Six! Thanks to a 0.82 ERA and a decent 0.55 WHIP, he’s been the No. 1 ranked fantasy player so far. Harvey’s control still isn’t great, as he’s walked multiple batters in all three of his outings (and he had a 3.93 BB/9 rate across Triple-A and with the Mets last year), but his stuff is among the nastiest in the league already. Harvey’s average fastball velocity (94.3 mph) has been the fourth-highest among all starters this season, while his slider (88.6 mph) has easily been the fastest (next highest is Madison Bumgarner at 88.0 mph) - with this ridiculous movement to boot. His curveball has also averaged the fourth-highest velocity, and he sports a plus changeup for the fun of it as well. Harvey’s 14.8 SwStr% leads the National League, and he somehow currently has a higher IFFB% (8.7) than line drive percentage (7.0). That’s pretty good. Over his first 13 starts in the major leagues, he has a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 95 strikeouts over 81.1 innings with a .173 BAA. In case I haven’t been clear, I think Harvey is for real, although I will caution that odds are his ERA rises above 1.00 at some point this season. Matt Harvey once visited The Virgin Islands. They have since just been referred to as The Islands.

[Also: Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo arrested for DUI]

Justin Upton looks ready to reach his potential (USAT)

Justin Upton posted an .899 OPS as a 21-year-old, got away from a franchise that he clearly didn’t see eye-to-eye with, and there’s a real chance last year’s disappointing season was a direct result of a since healed thumb injury. On the other hand, Upton had actually disappointed two of the past three seasons, finishing as the 122nd ranked fantasy player in 2010 and 47th last year. Upton also left one of the best hitter’s parks for a generally neutral one that happens to depress power for right-handers (Turner Field’s HR Park Index for RHB is 88 over the past three years). Despite the latter, fantasy owners thought more highly of the former and drafted him aggressively, as he was likely gone within the first 15 picks. And as someone who ended up with Upton on zero of my fantasy teams, it’s been a rough first week to the season watching him go off, as he’s clubbed six homers over the first eight games. With a 1.192 slugging percentage entering Tuesday, fantasy owners have actually been unlucky to only get eight RBI from Upton so far, but it’s pretty hard to complain about his performance otherwise. It’s obviously just one week, and his K% is actually alarmingly high (37.9), but that doesn’t mean owners shouldn’t be excited that he very well may live up to all the previous hype and an MVP type season could be in store. Still just 25 years old, let’s hope Upton can stay healthy, as a monstrous campaign should follow.

Stephen Strasburg wins baseball in 2013 (USAT)

Editor’s note: I wanted to get this posted much earlier, but I had my first kid recently (well, technically my wife had her), so that’s my excuse for the delay.

National League East

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (WILD CARD)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

Comments/Fantasy Predictions: Both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper are top-15 fantasy players, while Dan Haren is a top-25 starting pitcher. Ryan Zimmerman proves to be a better pick than Evan Longoria, while Drew Storen records 15+ saves. The Nationals finish with the most wins in major league baseball…B.J. Upton is more valuable than his brother Justin, while Dan Uggla bounces back and looks like a bargain in hindsight. Mike Minor is a top-30 starter, while Kris Medlen is top-15. Craig Kimbrel, who allowed one double and one hit with runners in scoring position all of last season, remains fantastic, but Aroldis Chapman is the most valuable closer in 2013. Julio Teheran is solid but doesn’t live up to the crazy spring training hype, as teammate Paul Maholm has more fantasy value. Andrelton Simmons solidifies himself as the best defensive player in baseball, helping those who invested in Braves pitching, especially Tim Hudson.

Magic Clerk - Easter edition.

The fears surrounding Roy Halladay are warranted, as he severely underperforms and/or misses time. Cliff Lee is a top-five pitcher, while Chase Utley is a top-five second baseman. Ryan Howard provides comparable value to Adrian Gonzalez, while Ben Revere swipes 50 bags, although the first homer of his career still eludes him…The Mets finish with the lowest combined outfield WAR in the league by a wide margin (fun fact via Jonah Keri: the two highest paid Mets outfielders this year are Jason Bay and Bobby Bonilla). Bobby Parnell runs away with the closer’s job, and Ike Davis becomes an undisputed top-five round pick in 2014 drafts. Matt Harvey’s WHIP isn’t elite thanks to too many walks, but he lives up to the hype, recording more than 200 strikeouts while finishing as a top-30 starter…A league-worst lineup hurts his counting stats, but Giancarlo Stanton leads baseball in home runs nevertheless.

McCutchen is coming off a caeer year (USAT)

There typically hasn’t been a consensus when it comes to the middle of the first round this year, with many fantasy owners choosing between Andrew McCutchen and Matt Kemp. Both are five-category outfielders with big upside yet also possess some question marks. Scott Pianowski and Dalton Del Don have a difference of opinion. Let’s get to the debate.

Pianow to open: When I'm making first-round picks or handling the blue chips in an auction, I usually take a floor-driven approach. Every player worth considering in the first round certainly has a major upside; I tend to focus on what the downside is, and how confident I feel in the given player giving me a solid return. There's plenty of time to shoot for the moon and stars later.

With that in mind, I'm an Andrew McCutchen man for 2013. Matt Kemp, not so much.

I know Kemp's ridiculous 2011 season is hard to ignore, but I'm more worried about the player we saw in 2010 and 2012. Kemp had all sorts of issues in that 2010 season (batting .249 and compiling a 19-for-34 stolen base record); some blamed his relationship with Joe Torre, while others pointed the blame at Rihanna, Kemp's squeeze at the time.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]