NFL mock draft 2017: the sleepers, the shoo-ins and Myles Garrett
The consensus is that the Browns will go for the Texas A&M as No1 pick but who will your team go for in Philadelphia on Thursday?
1) Cleveland Browns
Pick: Myles Garrett, edge rusher, Texas A&M
Yeah, we’ve all seen the reports suggesting that the Browns could yet spend this pick on a quarterback - and specifically Mitch Trubisky. And yeah, I suspect that’s a smokescreen. The Browns’ front office might rate the North Carolina alum highest out of this year’s passers, but a team that has made such a big point of restructuring its front office to prioritise cool analytics couldn’t really spend the No1 pick on a guy with 13 college starts … could they?
Garrett is the stand-out player in this draft, a 6ft 4in terror who can cover 40 yards in 4.64 seconds despite weighing more than 270lbs, and who piled up 32.5 sacks in three years at Texas A&M. He ought to be the pick. But hey, they are still the Browns…
2) San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Solomon Thomas, defensive end, Stanford
John Lynch has made no secret of his willingness to trade down from No2, and if the 49ers can get a decent price then I expect that’s exactly what they’ll do. If not, then this pick becomes a fascinating one to watch because the 49ers could justifiably go in just about any direction at this point of a total roster overhaul.
I considered giving them Leonard Fournette here, a move that would allow them to use Carlos Hyde as trade currency. Instead I’ll say that Lynch – seeking a “cornerstone” player for his franchise – takes the safer option in the form of a versatile and hard-working athlete who could bring a little intimidation factor back to a defense that currently owns just a single player with more than 14 career sacks.
3) Chicago Bears
Pick: Malik Hooker, safety, Ohio State
I wanted to give the Bears a quarterback, as I don’t believe for one second that this team believes Mike Glennon is a long-term answer. Although they are overpaying him this year, he is guaranteed just $2.5m in 2018, so drafting someone who could be developed to step in then would make a lot of sense. But neither general manager Ryan Pace nor head coach John Fox have great job security after consecutive last-place finishes in the NFC North, so quick fixes are required. The Bears’ ragged defense intercepted just eight passes last season (only Jacksonville had fewer). Hooker had seven on his own at Ohio State.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Leonard Fournette, running back, LSU
In many ways, Jacksonville might be better off upgrading an offensive line that is not exactly blowing people off the ball, but the lack of top-tier offensive tackles in this draft makes that tricky. And the Jags really do need to do something to improve their running game. They have not produced a 1,000-yard rusher in six years.
5) Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles)
Pick: Marshon Lattimore, cornerback, Ohio State
Logan Ryan is in, but Jason McCourty is gone, so the Titans need further reinforcement at cornerback. Lattimore is the best in this year’s draft, a ridiculous athlete with size and speed to spare. The Titans could trade down (the existence of this pick is a neat reminder of how well last year’s swap with the Rams worked out) but if Lattimore was on the board for them here it would feel like an obvious fit.
6) New York Jets
Pick: Jamal Adams, safety, LSU
Another year, and another chance for the Jets to draft the franchise quarterback that fans yearn for. Or, to spend the pick on a strong safety instead. Adams would actually be a nice addition at this point and the Jets clearly aren’t in love with their incumbent, Calvin Pryor – having so far failed to take up their option to extend his contract for another year.
7) Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Mike Williams, wide receiver, Clemson
If either of Hooker or Adams was still on the board at this point, they could be obvious picks for a team still trying to fill the void left by Eric Weddle. But with both already taken, the options are broader. There would be a logic to developing a young quarterback behind Philip Rivers, but this still feels too soon for that kind of pick. On the other hand, another playmaker never hurts. If Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin are fully healthy then Rivers gets to spread the ball out between what could become one of the best receiving trios in the league. And if not, then at least he’d have a fresh alternative.
8) Carolina Panthers
Pick: Derek Barnett, edge rusher, Tennessee
Dave Gettleman has not lived up to his reputation as an obsessive drafter of pass rushing prospects since taking over as general manager in Carolina. A man who helped steer the Giants towards Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul has selected only one defensive end – Kony Ealy – in four years with the Panthers. But he is on record as saying he likes this pass rushing class, and specifically that he thinks there is not a significant drop-off after Garrett and Thomas. Barnett was enormously productive against top-tier college opposition in the SEC.
9) Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jonathan Allen, defensive tackle, Alabama
Not since 2011 have the Bengals had a pick in the top-half of the first round. They turned that selection into AJ Green, and they could go for another offensive playmaker here in Christian McCaffrey, but I suspect Allen would be too good to turn down. A relentlessly productive interior pass rusher who turned in a mediocre performance at the Combine but rarely did the same when playing for Alabama.
10) Buffalo Bills
Pick: Mitch Trubisky, quarterback, North Carolina
I know this is a provocative pick. In reality, I think it’s more likely that one of the quarterback-needy teams who passed up their chance to take one early (Cleveland, San Francisco, Chicago, New York…) trades up somewhere around here to get a jump on the rest. But I also think Buffalo aren’t completely sold on Tyrod Taylor, and will recognise the value of this opportunity at No10. The Bills have worked out all of the top quarterbacks in this class, so if there is one that they believe has the potential to develop into an upper-tier NFL starter, they might find him hard to pass up.
11) New Orleans Saints
Pick: OJ Howard, tight end, Alabama
The Saints really need to find some way to upgrade a pass defense that gave up the most yards in the league in 2016. But how great might the temptation be to grab Howard, a rare talent, and give Drew Brees back the kind of pass-catching tight end option he used to have with Jimmy Graham?
12) Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia)
Pick: Patrick Mahomes II, quarterback, Texas Tech
Word is that the Browns like Trubisky best out of this year’s quarterbacks. They might even like him enough to move up a couple of spots and grab him, but one way or another I expect them to come out of this first round with a signal caller. Deshaun Watson will be higher on many teams’ boards, but Browns head coach Hue Jackson likes guys with big arms who can get the ball downfield, and that is one area where Watson came up short at the combine - generating a velocity of just 49mph on his throws, as against Mahomes’s 60mph.
13) Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Reuben Foster, inside linebacker, Alabama
It will be interesting to see how far Foster slides after testing positive for a diluted urine sample at the Combine - an event that he was sent home from after reportedly getting into an altercation with a hospital worker. He certainly has the talent to be a success in Arizona, where Steve Keim and Bruce Arians have shown a willingness to look beyond prospects’ rough edges, but some projections have him tumbling much further than this.
14) Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota)
Pick: Gareon Conley, cornerback, Ohio State
The third Buckeyes defensive back to be taken already in this mock, Conley’s stock has risen sharply since the Combine – though Philadelphia’s vice-president of player personnel, Joe Douglas, would like you to know that he and his staff were rocking out to this guy Before It Was Cool. Cornerback was already a position of need for the Eagles before they released both of last season’s starters, bringing in only Patrick Robinson by way of replacement.
15) Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Haason Reddick, linebacker, Temple
A former defensive back who converted play at defensive end and then outside linebacker in college, it is not entirely clear where Reddick best fits in the pros. Given that the Colts could stand to improve at just about every position on that side of the ball, such ambiguity might not be a bad thing.
16) Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Cam Robinson, offensive tackle, Alabama
Rick Wagner is gone to Detroit, leaving Baltimore with some big shoes (in every sense) to fill. Robinson is probably the top tackle in a weak class, but certainly more effective at clearing paths in the running game than he is at protecting the quarterback. That fits OK for Baltimore, whose vacancy is on the right side of the line.
17) Washington
Pick: Obi Melifonwu, safety, Connecticut
Who knows! This is a team operating without a general manager, so even by the usual standards of mock draft guesswork, this feels like a stab in the dark. Washington’s needs are greatest on defense, and they could certainly benefit from Melifonwu’s athleticism - though nobody was tipping him as a first round talent until he tore up the Combine. Jabrill Peppers would have been ahead of him on many teams’ draft boards, but the Michigan player’s stock will be hurt by news of his diluted urine sample.
18) Tennessee Titans
Pick: Corey Davis, wide receiver, Western Michigan
A dash of playmaking talent outside could go a long way in Tennessee, where the running game is already in very safe hands with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The blazing speed of John Ross looks tempting, but general manager Jon Robinson has tended to put his trust in players with a strong body of college production. Davis’s 5,278 receiving yards in college are an all-time FBS record.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Dalvin Cook, running back, Florida State
A Florida native, Cook has let it be known that he would love to stay in-state and join up with his former FSU team-mate Jameis Winston. Not everyone will be so enthused, given Cook’s chequered past, but the Bucs’ staff are said to be high on a player whose vision and sharp cuts mark him out as a back of significant potential. They already have Doug Martin, but patience is running thin after too many years disrupted by injury and suspension.
20) Denver Broncos
Pick: Garett Bolles, offensive tackle, Utah
The Broncos don’t have any natural left tackles on their roster right now, and whilst the scarcity of options in this draft means that they will most likely need to plug a veteran to start this season, they should also begin developing a long-term alternative. Bolles is raw, having only started a single season at Utah, and older than most rookies at 25 years old, but he has the nimblest feet of any tackle in this draft.
21) Detroit Lions
Pick: Christian McCaffrey, running back/receiver, Stanford
What could be more fitting than the man who broke Barry Sanders’s single-season college rushing record landing in Detroit? Absurdly productive and versatile enough to line up in the backfield or as a slot receiver, McCaffrey might be selected long before this. I must admit I’m more dubious than some of how well he will to translate to the NFL, where it is typically better to be a master of one trade than a jack of many, but I do think that Jim Bob Cooter is precisely the sort of coach who could make the most of such a multifaceted talent.
22) Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jarrad Davis, linebacker, Florida
The Dolphins could use some interior offensive line help as Laremy Tunsil prepares to move out to left tackle, but I’ll trust in reports that they are not looking to address that vacancy in the first round. There’s been a lot of talk of Miami looking to trade down from this spot, but if they can’t then Davis would be a nice fit - a sideline-to-sideline type with first-round talent despite missing a chunk of last season due to injury.
23) New York Giants
Pick: David Njoku, tight end, Miami
The Giants might have been keen on Davis themselves, to secure the future of a linebacking corps whose contracts all seem to expiring next year. Instead, I say they turn to Njoku – a man who just so happens to come from the same school as, and be friends with, the last tight end they spent a first-round pick on: Jeremy Shockey.
24) Oakland Raiders
Pick: Kevin King, cornerback, Washington
It’s no secret that the Raiders need to get better on defense, and especially against the pass. No other team gave up more throws of over 20+ yards in 2016, and in a division boasting the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Keenan Allen, a corner with King’s 6ft 3in height could only be an asset.
25) Houston Texans
Pick: Deshaun Watson, quarterback, Clemson
Texans general manager Rick Smith has played down suggestions that he is under pressure to take a quarterback in the first round, but if Watson does slide this far, he may be hard to pass up. His lack of arm strength is a legitimate concern, and his downfield accuracy was erratic in college, but his athleticism, knack for evading the pass rush and impressive production make it hard for me to imagine him slipping out of the first round.
26) Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Marlon Humphrey, cornerback, Alabama
Yes, the offensive line remains in desperate need of attention - but after adding (the underwhelming talents of) Luke Joeckel and Oday Aboushi in free agency, my suspicion is that the front office will conclude that they have greater priorities elsewhere. Humphrey fits the tall-and-physical mould that Pete Carroll prefers – though Kevin King might have done so even better.
27) Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Charles Harris, edge rusher, Missouri
Upgrading the pass rush is not exactly an urgent need for Kansas City, with Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Tamba Hali all on the books, but this could be an astute piece of forward planning. The Chiefs can save $7m in cap room if they let Hali go next year, and both Houston and Ford have struggled with injuries. Andy Reid has long believed that games are won in the trenches, so why not take advantage of this strong pass-rushing class?
28) Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Taco Charlton, edge rusher, Michigan
The Cowboys lost most of their starting secondary in free agency, and could stand to invest this pick on a defensive back, but equally they can hope to upgrade their pass defense by adding in a player who would help them to get pressure on the quarterback. At 6ft 6in and 277lbs, Charlton’s size makes him a solid fit in Dallas’s 4-3.
29) Green Bay Packers
Pick: Takkarist McKinley, edge rusher, UCLA
Yet another pass rusher in what I have forecast as a run of them late in the first round. Much like the Cowboys, Green Bay have holes in their secondary but might see the value in masking that flaw rather than trying to fix it directly. Even among edge rushers, the Packers can pick their poison here - if McKinley was gone, then Harris, Charlton, Tyus Bowser or Wisconsin’s TJ Watt could all be viable options instead.
30) Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Jabrill Peppers, safety/linebacker, Michigan
That diluted urine sample might knock Peppers out of the first round altogether, but he remains an intriguing prospect who played everywhere from safety to linebacker and even slot receiver at Michigan, as well as returning kicks. Versatility, as already noted, can be a double-edged blade, but his athleticism would be a benefit to Pittsburgh’s thin secondary.
31) Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Forrest Lamp, guard, Western Kentucky
Chris Chester’s retirement leaves a gap at guard, and Lamp has been projected by some as a top-15 talent. He played left tackle in college, and has the quick feet and athleticism you would expect from someone who thrived in that position, but lacks the height and reach to play that position in the pros.
32) New Orleans Saints (from New England)
Pick: Tre’Davious White, cornerback, LSU
Having taken an offensive player with their first pick, the Saints would certainly need to turn their attention back to defense with their second. White is a solid cover corner who can also return punts, although his tackling could be better.
