Who should you bet on in the 2023 Kentucky Derby? Here’s who the experts are picking.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and the Herald-Leader has asked horse racing experts around the country for their top handicapping picks.
Florida Derby winner Forte is the morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds, with Tapit Trice (5-1), Angel of Empire (8-1) and Derma Sotogake (10-1) among the other top contenders for the roses.
Here’s a look at our expert predictions, which included some long-shot bets. (Note: Practical Move was scratched from the race Thursday.)
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Forte
Place: Tapit Trice
Show: Derma Sotogake
Comment: After last year’s aberration with Rich Strike, the Derby will return to form with the favorite hitting the wire first.
Mark Story
Herald-Leader
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Confidence Game
Show: Two Phil’s
Comment: Having won four straight races at four different tracks, Tapit Trice seems a horse for any course.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Derma Sotogake
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Forte
Comment: Yes, he’s up against history, but in a relatively lackluster Derby field, Derma Sotogake looks like a potential star.
Cameron Drummond
Herald-Leader
Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Forte
Show: Derma Sotogake
Comment: In what is a weak and deeply flawed Kentucky Derby field, the Arkansas Derby winner has the pedigree and past performances to give me the belief he will triumph over the morning-line favorite. Derma Sotogake makes history by becoming the first Japanese horse to finish in the money in the Derby.
Caroline Makauskas
Herald-Leader
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Practical Move
Comment: Tapit, who has sired four Belmont Stakes winners, has yet to sire a Kentucky Derby winner. Tapit Trice, ridden by experienced jockey Luis Saez, possesses the power — as well as the momentum granted by a four-race win streak — to break through and become the first.
Frank Angst
BloodHorse
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Forte
Comment: Tapit Trice impressed me in his past two starts, and I think he gets even better as he stretches out to 1¼ miles Saturday.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Derma Sotogake
Show: Skinner
Comment: I decided to go with, “The trainer of the favorite wins the Derby with another horse angle,” especially after Tapit Trice overcame the No. 1 post position and a wide trip to win the Blue Grass in impressive fashion.
Steve Byk
At the Races (SiriusXM)
Win: Two Phil’s
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Skinner
Comment: From small time connections, Two Phil’s may be too good a story to win, but he’s got tactical speed and an explosive turn of foot that wins a lot of Derbys. He owns the juvenile stakes win over the track and at a $20 mutuel, is an ideal key horse.
John Cherwa
Los Angeles Times
Win: Skinner
Place: Forte
Show: Derma Sotogake
Comment: Skinner has won only once but has always been close. Remember Giacomo? Trainer John Shirreffs may be at it again.
Ed DeRosa
Horse Racing Nation
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Skinner
Show: Disarm
Comment: Tapit Trice has done very little wrong in an exemplary career that has him coming into the Kentucky Derby off wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. In the former, he closed from dead last, while in the latter he made a sweet middle move, moving from off the rail and negotiating traffic to make a clear run to the wire. That’s the type of trip that wins Derbys, and he has already shown he is fast enough.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: Skinner
Place: Verifying
Show: Forte
Comment: John Shirreffs only shows up when he thinks he can win. I like the rider change and preparation.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Skinner
Comment: He was a much-improved horse in the Blue Grass, and I don’t think we’ve seen his very best yet. Can give Todd Pletcher his third Derby win.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Practical Move
Show: Forte
Comment: As good as Forte is, Tapit Trice seems on the cusp of passing him as Todd Pletcher’s top contender. The Blue Grass victory was a big step, and Tapit Trice has seemed to like the going at Churchill Downs the past few weeks and will give Pletcher his third Kentucky Derby victory.
Mike Gandolfo
Horse Racing Happy Hour
Win: Forte
Place: Confidence Game
Show: Angel of Empire
Comment: Forte overcame a bad post, a tough trip, and a subpar ride in the Florida Derby. Amongst a group of pack animals, Forte is a horse born to break away and win.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Confidence Game
Place: Practical Move
Show: Derma Sotogake
Comment: Confidence Game has great speed and a solid pedigree for a 1¼-mile race. He earned career-best speed figures to the first and second call in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on fast dirt and followed that up with a gutty win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes over a sloppy track. Plus, he is an overachiever, winning at 18-1 and 11-1, with additional board hits at 6-1, 10-1 and 8-1.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Disarm
Place: Skinner
Show: Two Phil’s
Comment: Going all price horses. No one is doing any better than Disarm. Been a fan since day one.
Brooks Holton
Courier Journal
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Practical Move
Show: Forte
Comment: Tapit Trice is coming off a strong showing at Keeneland, running 1⅛ miles in 1:50 and will be starting in Post 5, which has produced more winners (10) and on-the-board finishers (25) than any other position since the race began using a gate in 1930.
Dan Issel
ESPN 680
Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Forte
Show: Mage
Comment: Brad Cox’s best chance — loved his last race.
Tim Layden
NBC Sports
Win: Forte
Place: Derma Sotogake
Show: Skinner
Comment: Sometimes the most obvious pick is the right one. There could be some pace issues for Forte, but he’s a tough, classy horse who will endure and give the superstar owner-trainer team of Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher their first Derby together.
Tom Leach
Keeneland
Win: Verifying
Place: Two Phil’s
Show: Tapit Trice
Comment: Verifying ran his lifetime best in the Blue Grass Stakes and is training like he can take another step forward.
Mike Penna
Horse Racing Radio Network
Win: Kingsbarns
Place: Forte
Show: Rocket Can
Comment: Kingsbarns will attempt to become the first Louisiana Derby winner to wear the roses since Grindstone in 1996. The task is less daunting considering he is trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher and seems to have the tactical speed necessary to stay out of trouble which should put him in a striking position turning for home.
Jennie Rees
HBPA Communications
Win: Tapit Trice
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Forte
Comment: Todd Pletcher holds the cards, but giving a slight edge to his Blue Grass winner, Tapit Trice, who is on the upward trajectory. Angel of Empire offers value at 8-1 — but they all have to knock off the champ.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Tapit Trice
Show: Confidence Game
Comment: Brad Cox gets the roses while they’re still fresh this time.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Forte
Place: Tapit Trice
Show: Hit Show
Comment: I’ve liked Forte quite a bit since last fall and see no reason to get off him now, following an educational run in his final prep, which he won on class. Stablemate Tapit Trice has thrived in his training in the weeks since the Blue Grass.
Tim Sullivan
LEO Weekly
Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Tapit Trice
Show: Derma Sotogake
Comment: Brad Cox wins his second Derby with a late charge and without litigation.
Childs Walker
Baltimore Sun
Win: Forte
Place: Verifying
Show: Skinner
Comment: You could make a compelling case for five or six potential winners, but I’ll stick with the horse that hasn’t put a foot wrong since last summer.
Tim Wilkin
National turf writer
Win: Forte
Place: Angel of Empire
Show: Rocket Can
Comment: Forte has been the best of the division all year long. He will prove that again on Derby Day.
