Here’s how much cap flexibility and draft assets the Miami Dolphins have created for 2022

As the Miami Dolphins continue down this course that places a premium on future draft picks and flexibility, here’s the good news:

Because of the way contracts are structured, and because of their restraint in 2021 free agency, they should have at least $40 million in cap space next spring and could carve out more than $70 million in cap space if they choose.

The question is whether they will trust themselves enough to use it on pricey free agents.

The Dolphins believe they made multiple mistakes during their 2020 free-agent spending spree, evidenced by their release of Kyle Van Noy and Jordan Howard, their trade of Shaq Lawson and their dumping of Ereck Flowers for a negligible return (an exchange of seventh-round picks with Washington).

Those Van Noy/Lawson/Flowers decisions left the Dolphins with $14.9 million dead money on their 2021 cap.

And though no team would ever admit such a thing, my suspicion is that it made them gun-shy about spending big in free agency this year. It’s not a coincidence that the Dolphins didn’t give a multi-year deal to any 2021 free agent pickup except Adam Butler and Cethan Carter.

And not only are the 2022 salaries modest for Butler ($3.4 million) and Carter ($2.3 million), but neither is guaranteed, and neither would carry a dead money cap hit if they’re cut.

So the Dolphins, after an unfortunate experience in 2020 free agency, have protected themselves to the point that not a single player signed this season will be owed a dime — or have any dead money charge — after the 2021 season if the Dolphins decide to move on from all of them.

It’s uncertain what the 2022 cap will be, but NBC’s Peter King said it “will likely be less than the 2019 cap figure of $198 million.”

Let’s say it’s $195 million.

The Dolphins, once they sign their 2021 draft picks, will have $152.88 million in cap commitments for 2022.

That would leave about $42 million in 2022 cap space if the cap is $195 million cap.

But if they decide to move on from Benardrick McKinney after the 2021 season, that would free up another $9.5 million in 2022 cap space. (His $8.75 million salary in 2022 is non-guaranteed.)

Moving on from Bobby McCain after the 2021 season would free up another $7 million in 2022 cap space. (His $6.9 million salary in 2022 is non-guaranteed.)

Moving on from Eric Rowe would save $4.55 million in cap space.

There would be a $3.7 million savings if Miami cut Jakeem Grant after 2021, $3.2 million for Allen Hurns, $2.8 million for Clayton Fejedelem. The Dolphins have signaled that they are intending to keep around all of their veteran receivers for now, but eventually will need to trim the group from 13 to six or seven.

The 2022 dead money on any of those six (McKinney, McCain, Rowe, Grant, Hurns, Fejeledem) would be nothing or minimal (less than $1.5 million).

So if Miami moved on from those six players after 2021, that’s another $30 million in cap savings, leaving Miami at $72 million in 2022 cap space with a $195 million cap.

But here’s the big question: Will the Dolphins trust themselves again to spend big in free agency when it’s clear they believe they botched 2020 free agency (aside from Emmanuel Ogbah and to an extent, Byron Jones)?

I would hope they would trust themselves. Even though the Dolphins clearly weren’t happy with the value they got for Van Noy and Flowers, neither was a bust. Both graded out in the top half at their positions last season, per Pro Football Focus.

Jordan Howard was the only bust of the group, and in his defense, he received only 28 carries (for 33 yards) behind a young offensive line before Miami decided to cut bait.

So the Dolphins’ 2020 free agent class wasn’t as bad as the Dolphins’ jettisoning some of those players would suggest.

If you’re wondering what the cap savings would be next March for moving on from Byron Jones, DeVante Parker or (heaven forbid) Xavien Howard, here’s what you need to know about that:

Jones is due $14.4 million in base salary in 2022, with $6 million of that guaranteed, and a $16.5 million cap number. If the Dolphins cut him next spring, there would be $12.3 million in 2022 dead money and a $4.2 million in 2022 cap savings.

Parker is due $5.7 million in base salary in 2022, with none guaranteed and an $8.9 million cap number. If the Dolphins cut him next spring, there would be $5.4 million in 2022 dead money and $3.6 million in 2022 cap savings.

Howard is due $12.4 million in base salary in 2022, with none guaranteed and a $14.4 million cap number. If the Dolphins cut him next spring, there would be $2.8 million in 2022 dead money and a $11.6 million in 2022 cap savings.

With Howard, it would be ridiculous to release him if he plays at an elite level again in 2021, regardless of the cap savings.

The view here is that cutting Jones and Parker - provided they play well in 2021 - would not be prudent because of the dead money and because they’re two of the Dolphins’ top 15 players.

But nothing should be ruled out with the Dolphins, who preferred to pay Flowers $6 million and take an $8 million dead money hit merely so he would go away.

Mike Gesicki could cost the Dolphins perhaps $10 million a year in free agency or $9.3 million if given the franchise tag next spring. But if third-rounder Hunter Long impresses the team this season, the Dolphins could move on from Gesicki — or Durham Smythe — after 2021, with Smythe also set for unrestricted free agency next March.

And what about the Dolphins’ draft capital next April?

In 2022, the Dolphins will have the 49ers first-round pick; their own pick in the second round; a 49ers’ third-round pick; two picks in the fourth round (their own and now Pittsburgh’s); their own picks in the fifth and sixth rounds; and the Titans’ pick in the seventh round.

The Dolphins, in recent weeks, traded their own first and third-round picks next year, to the Eagles and Giants, respectively.

And the Dolphins will have two first-rounders in 2023 - their own and San Francisco’s.

So Dolphins fans need to root against the 49ers and hope that rookie quarterback Trey Lance doesn’t lift the franchise back to greatness.

Here’s my Wednesday piece on where the Heat stands in the playoff race and what must happen to avoid the play-in round.

Here’s my Wednesday piece on how the Marlins’ top prospects fared in their first minor-league games in 19 months.