Heavy rainfall bringing needed drought relief to central, southern Plains
Much-needed rain is drenching some of the worst drought-stricken areas of the United States this week. To some extent, the rain will help lessen the wildfire danger and assist with agricultural operations in part of the region, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
"A recent pattern change has forced the overall storm track farther south across the southern Plains this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "This will allow a storm developing over the Colorado Rockies, where 1-2 feet of snow will fall, to track toward the Gulf states by midweek. Just north of the storm track will be a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday."
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Even though rain from the storm will not hit all areas that are currently in a drought, it has the potential to bring 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts from southeastern Colorado to much of Oklahoma, southern Kansas and northern Texas. It is possible for a few locations to pick up 3-5 inches of rain, which is more than a month's worth of rainfall.
Drought has affected the region since at least the late summer and early autumn of 2022.
A large part of southern and western Kansas and northern Oklahoma were in the worst long-term drought category, which is designated as "exceptional," according to the United States Drought Monitor.
Dodge City, Kansas, has received just 4.38 inches of its historical average of 9.25 inches, or 47 percent, from Sept. 1 through April 25.
It has been a similar story for Gage, Oklahoma, where rainfall is only at 37% of the historical average since the start of the autumn season. North Platte, Nebraska, has picked up a meager 0.51 of an inch of rain, compared to a historical average of 3.06 inches from Feb. 1 through April 25. This amount is only 176 of the average.
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"While this rainfall will certainly not erase the drought, it will bring some relief in the form of much-needed moisture for agricultural tracts," Anderson said.
The rain will be enough to help green up pastures for ranchers. However, it may not be enough to help all crops in the region.
"Most likely, the rain is coming too late to be of much use for the wheat crop," AccuWeather Senior Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler said. The wheat is planted in the fall, goes dormant over the winter and then resprouts in the spring, provided there is ample moisture.
It could be a different story for cotton, which is another big crop in the region.
"Cotton is planted from mid-April to mid-May, and this rain may encourage some extra acreage to be planted," Mohler said. "But, as a caveat, it has to keep raining into the summer for the cotton crop to be a success as it will not be able to live on the moisture from one storm early on."
Most of the rain will tend to fall over a period of 24-36 hours and will allow the parched ground to absorb a significant amount of moisture. However, in some cases, too much rain may fall too fast on the hard-packed soil and in urban areas, which can lead to brief, minor flooding.
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"The storm will also greatly reduce the amount of dust in the air and lower the risk of rapidly spreading wildfires," Anderson said.
Much of the region has periodically been in a high-fire risk this past winter and the first part of the spring. This has occurred due to a storm track that set up farther north than usual, allowing strong winds to kick up dust south of the storms as they pass by with little or no rain and snow.
That persistent storm track over the northern tier of the U.S. delivered tremendous and record-breaking snow this winter to some locations. Runoff from the melting snow is now leading to major flooding along the upper Mississippi River.
As this week's storm pushes eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, it will enter a zone where the need for rain becomes much more localized.
Oklahoma City has received only 1.31 inches of rain this month through April 25. Most of that rain fell on April 19. The climatological average for rain in April for Oklahoma City is 3.60 inches. Farther east, rainfall is generally at 100% to 150% of the historical average for the month in cities such as Little Rock, Arkansas; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Jackson, Mississippi.
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Where downpours persist or become intense at the local level, flash flooding of urban areas and small streams may become more extensive from Arkansas and Louisiana to the Carolinas and Georgia.
The same storm system will also spark severe weather on its southern flank. Most of those severe storms could generate everything from large hail and frequent lightning strikes to powerful wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. Most of the severe weather on Wednesday will be focused on central and eastern Texas.
"A second storm system may bring another brief round of rainfall to parts of the central and southern Plains on Friday," Anderson said.
Rain from that late-week storm may be more spread out across the Great Plains when compared to the storm from Tuesday to Wednesday across the southern areas. However, rainfall is likely to be brief and generally well under 0.25 of an inch in most places.
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